Economic pressures

[Danny B]

Cost of sugar,,, health,,, entitlements

Sugar consumption; http://onlinestatbook.com/lms/case_s...hics/sugar.jpg
Diabetes;' http://media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lx2slx3s6l1qz6i3f.gif
Obesity; http://az616578.vo.msecnd.net/files/...5721_obese.gif
Life expectancy vs healthcare costs over time; http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau..._Collapse1.png
2 Charts Show How Close The U.S. Is To Healthcare Collapse | Zero Hedge

Much of the high cost of medical care is because the industry has been "financialized". You can thank the banks for that

There are a lot of claims about the cost of assistance for the poor;
"And so based on this, whites only consumed $4,022.13 billion in government, but paid $4,529.52 billion in taxes "
"That said, the ultimate takeaway is that US budget deficits are entirely a function of non-whites. And that is NOT hypothetical, even after assigning 100% of the military budget to whites."
http://www.truthjustice.net/politics...ere-all-white/

Much of our bad health is self-inflicted. The southern States seem to be the fatest, http://www.obesitysurgerycenter.org/images/map.jpg
http://stateofobesity.org/disparitie...-men-women.png
Entitlements seem to just keep growing, http://www.americanthinker.com/artic...titlement.html

[Danny B]

investment overshoot

The FED tries to stop corrections in the markets. Everybody takes this as a "no lose" ticket to invest without worry. By trying to inspire confidence, the FED has managed to create runaway over-confidence. Stocks are bought by paying a "down payment" and the rest is conjured up. The difference is referred to as "margin debt". The FED pumped in many trillion dollars into markets and irrational exuberance took over from there. Margin debt is north of $500 billion.
The FED has primed the pump and irrational exuberance has taken over.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...4_FEDSPX_0.jpg
BUT, debt creation has gone parabolic so, it is doubtful that it can all go on.
The New Scariest Chart In The World (For US Stock Investors) | Zero Hedge

The notional value of the interest rate swaps are about $ 400 trillion. These swaps are coming under strain as interest rates rise. "The Interest Rate Swap Derivatives Market is Coming Under Strain As Foreign T-Bond Dumping Has Begun:"
Has the END GAME Begun? | Jim Willie | Silver Doctors

We have the biggest stock bubble in history so, we should have the biggest correction in history.
The Biggest Stock Bubble In U.S. History | Investment Research Dynamics
The bankers will probably get out in time and leave the pension funds to take all the losses. Just the same, here is my advice to the bankers, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yge311sFhC8

[Danny B]

Notes on the EU

The technocrats envisioned the European Union as a techno-fascist bundling of European States MINUS any democratic control.
Beyond a Failing European Super State : Waking Times

It is hard to understand how a techno-fascist rule could be overlaid on an emerging socialist conglomeration. The techno-fascists were warned personally by Martin Armstrong that no currency union had ever survived if it didn't also have a debt union. They figured that they would just work it out later. Using wishful thinking for long range planning is unlikely to be successful. Ignoring human nature is a guaranteed recipe for disaster.
Locking the various tribes of Europe into a common currency was predestined to fail.

The eurocrats locked the various States into mandatory limits for debt. When there was no possible way to meet these limits, the ECB just got an IOU from them.

80 central banks are DUMPING the Euro
Flight capital has moved in this way ever since the financial crisis of 2008/09. Unfortunately, the amounts are now so large that no Eurozone jurisdiction can be said to be financially stable. What amounts to a systemic run on the weaker members of Eurozone banking system is deliberately concealed by the ECB�s intra-jurisdiction settlement system, TARGET2. The chart below is of the TARGET2 imbalances between the Eurozone�s national central banks, which at the end of February totalled a record �1.08 trillion

So, the weaker States are about a trillion in the hole. Strangely enough, Germany seems to have an extra trillion.
In effect, the ECB is using the settlement system to conceal the scale of capital flight.
"Britain leaving the EU will expose a hole in the EU Commission�s budget of about �8bn, out of a total annual spend of �145bn. Of that total, roughly �136bn is committed to redistributions between member states. The EU Commission itself spends the balance, about �8.5bn, on its own administration and projects, �8.5b for P.O.S. bureaucrats.
There is a further problem. Brussels has spending commitments over and above the official budget, which at the end of 2016 stood at a massive �238bn These are commitments incurred but not yet paid for, reste � liquider in the jargon. It includes capital projects and various items such as future pension liabilities for Commission staff. DO NOT FORGET THOSE GOLD-PLATED PENSIONS.

A recent development is the appearance of a deficit on the ECB�s own books of �178bn, which, according to the ECB, has arisen from purchases through the ECB�s Asset Purchase Programme.
the ECB�s asset purchase programme effectively financed all Italy�s debt requirements last year
The credits and deficits within TARGET2 first attracted public attention in 2012, particularly in Germany, where the Bundesbank appeared to be on the hook. The issue is now likely to resurface, with the Bundesbank�s surplus getting on for nearly a trillion euros.

The greatest threat to someone in a debt trap is to have the interest cost rise. And not only does the cost of financing and refinancing maturing debt threaten to rise exponentially, but the debtor is increasingly forced into short-term funding. For this reason, rising interest rates are the beginning of the end for countries like Greece and Italy.
As with all bad ideas, the EU and its currency will find monetary or systemic collapse is the final consequence of all constructions founded on fallacious expediency.
https://wealth.goldmoney.com/researc...efcode=dollarc

[Danny B]

Not to worry, the economy is expanding

4/08 Americans are taking out the largest mortgages on record � MarketWatch
4/08 Eurozone house price inflation at 9-year high � Morningstar
4/07 San Fran so expensive that tech workers can�t afford it � CNBC
4/08 ECB sticks with ultra loose monetary policy � Handelsblatt
4/08 Consumer credit accelerates again as credit-card debt tops $1 trillion � MarketWatch
Americans owe over $1.4 trillion in student loan debt,
The US closed out 2016 with just shy of $1.2 trillion in outstanding auto loan debt

Obummer ran the debt clock up to $20 trillion. It turns out, he was tight with money. Our ENTIRE system only works with debt growth.
"the U.S. government (led by the Tea Party) cut discretionary spending to the bone. Remember the 2013 budget sequestration? All of that hullabaloo caused the government to shrink from 2011 to 2015."

"Well, the reality is much of the spending that caused the increase in overall debt was the result of automatic stabilizers - unemployment insurance, etc� Although Obama probably wanted to spend much more, he didn�t. And this is one of the reasons the U.S. economy experienced its weakest post recession recovery. Just look at that chart above. Over the past three decades there has never been a government spending decline of that magnitude."

http://themacrotourist.com/images/20...ditApr0617.png
"See the slight leveling off in 2007? That is the horrific debt de-leveraging that caused the greatest financial crisis since the Great Depression."
http://themacrotourist.com/images/20...REDApr0617.png
" In a balance sheet challenged economy, the moment you cut spending, the paradox of thrift kicks in, and the economy rolls over. This is a lesson Japan has learned all too well over the past couple of decades. Not believing Japan�s example, the U.S. repeated the error after the credit crisis of 2008. "

"This has encouraged too much borrowing. We have piled more and more debt on the problem. The trouble is that we have done this for so long, the consequences of allowing the cycle to play out has become catastrophic."
"The pain that would accompany a true debt destruction reset would be too immense. The amount of social upheaval and instability would probably mean the end of the Western world as we know it."

"That leaves the one tried and true solution. For thousands of years when societies have gotten in trouble with too much debt, they have solved their problem by printing their way out of it. To think the modern day situation will be any different is naive."
"But what�s going to happen the moment things look dicey again? The governments and Central Banks will inflate. We saw it with BREXIT. We saw it with Eurocrisis of 2011. In fact, governments are becoming more and more quick to step on the gas pedal."

"Yet today, I have come around to the idea that the debt problem is so pervasive, there is only way one forward - inflate. We are going to end up there anyway, so let�s just inflate away the burden and restart with a system that prevents this from ever happening again." That would be gold.
" It is only a matter of time before they are simply dropping cash right into individuals bank accounts.

I wish I could take credit for this, but it was Bill Fleckenstein who said it first. They will keep printing until the bond market takes the keys away."
The FED is now buying the bonds.
"The true end game won�t come from weakness, it will come from strength. What happens when economic growth picks up and causes inflation? "
Economic growth is not going to pick up without higher wages and more workers.
"Eventually we will hit a point where governments will be unable to raise rates because it would crush their balance sheet, yet inflation will dictate rates be higher. This will be checkmate. Governments will have no moves. Inflation will soar,"
THE END GAME | THE MACROTOURIST

Debt growth is now parabolic. Wages are stagnant. The Central banks are on a death march. They are deathly afraid of deflation. Their only viable? tool is inflation. They are NOT able to inflate wages. So every move they make raises prices for the wage earner. They can only cause growth by funding liar-loans on grossly overpriced houses and cars and stocks. The very act of funding these things causes the prices to rise.
As price inflation rises, the bond vigilantes demand higher interest rates. The FED must continue to buy the bonds that the investors shun. Since "all"
interest rates are tied to the 10-year note, the FED has locked most of the economy into ZIRP.
With ZIRP, all the funds die. Without ZIRP, GOV and the corporate sector die.
Simply inflating the money supply isn't going to fix the problems.

"See the slight leveling off in 2007? That is the horrific debt de-leveraging that caused the greatest financial crisis since the Great Depression."
That brings us to Donald Trump. The inception of the welfare-warfare State in the mid 60s blew out the system. By 1971, the gold standard had to be abandoned. We've spent $25 trillion since the 60s to end poverty.
Trump has inherited the flawed system that requires a huge growth in debt just to stay in one place.
Nixon should have revalues gold / devalued the dollar. He didn't and now we are coming to the reset. Big, Bad, Bald Ben Bernanke came out and said that the FED caused the great depression I. The FED tightened and brought everything down. You can see the same effect from austerity in Greece. Bernanke said that he could avoid another depression by inflating instead of tightening. Ben feces-for-brains inflated the upper loop and the lower loop was left to twist in the wind. Same in Japan.
The CB must rely on "trickle down" to inflate the wage-earner loop. That didn't work so now, The CBs are out of tools.

Trump can't dismantle the 50 year old system without introducing debt-free money. "They" aren't about to let that happen.
"What you will learn is that neoliberal economics is an apology for the rentier class and the large banks that have succeeded in financializing the economy, shifting consumer spending power from the purchase of goods and services that drive the real economy to the payment of interest and fees to banks. "

The World’s Best Economist - PaulCraigRoberts.org

[Danny B]

BLICS and Other

The small deleveraging in 2008 and the small reduction in GOV spending after 2013 caused coronary arrest of the whole system. Bank money is created by lending and nobody could borrow. The FED desperately needed to inject money into the system worldwide. All that dollar-denominated debt in Europe and the emerging markets was going to blow up the whole system. The FED coughed up a total of liquidity in various forms to the tune of $27 trillion to keep the system from melting down.
This $27 trillion was essentially debt-free money. Much of TARP was not paid back because that would defeat the entire purpose of re-flating the system.

BUT, the FED needed to appear to maintain the confidence of the bond buyers. Every bout of QE lowered this confidence. Also, QE did NOT fix the economy. It is / was the equivalent of a heart-lung machine. Eventually, VISIBLE QE had to come to an end.

"From 2008-->2014, the US Treasury nearly issued as much debt as it had in the previous 230+ years. From 1776 through 2007, the US issued just over $9 trillion in US Treasury debt to pay for stuff which "we" wanted but "we" were unwilling to tax ourselves to pay for." "QE ended in late 2014"
Just when QE ended, the BLICS came to the rescue. (Belgium, Luxembourg, Ireland, Cayman Island, and Switzerland) Keep in mind that Belgium didn't even have any dollars to buy treasury debt.
"As an aside, from 2000 through July 2011, China recycled about 50% of it's dollar trade surplus into Treasury's...from July 2011 onward, China only continues to sell Treasury's despite record trade surplus (seems those record surplus' of dollars in China, Russia, and elsewhere are being recycled into something else, something a little more solid and time tested)...but luckily the BLICS stepped up just as China and the BRICS bowed out."

" Interestingly, the "other" category has nearly doubled since September of 2014 from less than a trillion to $1.8 trillion. So the Treasury market is supported by "other investors" which unfortunately the Treasury Bulletin provides no more detail about "
"As China and the BRICS ceased net buying Treasury debt in July 2011 (and never returned), the BLICS appeared and rates went down "
https://econimica.blogspot.com/2017/...be-buying.html

SO, QE never ended. It just put on a false moustache and continued to pass out money to almost everybody. If they passed out money to the wage-earners who actually do productive work, we would all take an extended vacation. Trickle-down just isn't working in the face of a global-mean-wage. Aggregate wages / earnings of the lower loop are not adequate to support the upper loop. As our purchasing power continues to fall, the printing presses must run ever-faster.
Even with free money, the banks still have problems. Because of free money, the banks have increasing problems; Fed President Admits US Banks Have Only "Half The Equity They Need" | Zero Hedge

[Danny B]

Killary Klinton, "he'll put us all in prison."
HUD Secretary, Ben Carson, "There is $ 520 billion missing"
https://investmentwatchblog.com/ben-...obama-minions/
"Department of Housing and Urban Development�s (HUD�s) financial books are in such bad shape that HUD�s Inspector General (IG) can�t complete an audit even after HUD officials corrected $520 billion in bookkeeping errors, according to a new IG report.

Officials at HUD fixed $3.4 billion in errors from its 2015 books and $516.4 billion in errors from its 2016 books "
THAT is an obummer-sized error.

[Danny B]

Notes on decashing

These are excerpts from an IMF paper on decashing the economy.

"A study of payment habits in Australia, Austria, Canada, France, Germany, the
Netherlands, and the United States has shown that in terms of the number of transactions, currency accounts for more than half everywhere, except the United States. Since the introduction of the Euro, cash in circulation has more than quadrupled in the Eurozone."Somebody doesn't trust somebody.
"Cash has been created as the historically most convenient from of
money, and carrying cash in the wallet is often perceived as a fundamental human right."
"One estimate for the United States suggests that about 65 percent ($580 billion) of all banknotes are in circulation outside of the U.S."
"The Federal Reserve estimates that in 2016 cashless transactions amounted to US $617 bn, up from US $60 bn in 2010."

"In Sweden, banks no longer accept or dispense cash, about 900 of Sweden�s 1,600 bank branches no longer keep cash on hand"
"In particular, the negative interest rate policy becomes a feasible option for monetary policy if savings in physical currency are discouraged and substantially reduced. With de-cashing, most money would be stored in the banking system, and, therefore, would be easily affected by negative rates, which could encourage consumer spending."
It has NEVER worked out this way.

"Even a small negative interest rate would likely result in a sudden jump
in demand for cash, both during and after the period of negative interest rates. The supply of cash would increase to meet this demand. In this scenario, negative interest rate policies might be feasible only if cash and prepaid debit cards were eliminated,"
"Also, with negative interest rates, agents could move into other assets for storing value if domestic interest rates are largely negative" Like Applepay or a dozen other options.
"After de-cashing, the banking system laden with fresh deposits would be able to boost lending." Banks don't lend their deposits. They speculate with them. They create lent funds out of thin air.
"Banks� credit is also constrained by capital requirements and sound lending considerations."

"Finally, should governments impose de-cashing without the general approval of the population, de-cashing may lead to social tensions, mistrust, walkouts, demonstrations"
"electronic payments may also lead to new forms of tax evasion and could incentivize barter, facilitated by improved technology, which will hamper tax collection."
"Carrying cash is a human right and is written into constitutions, which therefore have to be changed"
"Social conventions may also be disrupted as de-cashing may be viewed as a violation of fundamental rights, including freedom of contract and freedom of ownership." "While convertible deposits cannot be stolen in a conventional robbery, they can be hacked. There are, obviously, concerns as the cases of electronic fraud have more than doubled in the past decade."

"By forgoing tax revenue, the authorities allow small businesses to create informal mechanisms of social self-support, which the government simply cannot afford to finance through formal social payments."
"As de-cashing gives incentives to economies� agents to convert their currency in bank deposits, the deposit base of the banking system will increase,"
"if the negative interest rate policy becomes a mainstream policy option, de-cashing would be critical for its efficiency."
"If the poorest cannot have access to computers or mobile phones, they will lose the most important financial asset that they rely on to save: cash."
https://armstrongmedia.s3.amazonaws....hing-Paper.pdf
This is what Armstrong has to say about the whole affair;
"While governments are pressing this using terrorism as the excuse, you do not eliminate the entire monetary system of the world to even catch 100 terrorists and their camels. This is all about the collapse in socialism and the desperate need to raise money."

[Danny B]

Globalism and wealth transfer go together

The world is holding it's breath waiting for a reaction from Russia. Russia is the world's largest oil producer. They only have the GDP of Italy but, they have no debt. They are self-sufficient in food production. While we build ships that don't run and planes that don't fly, Russia has built up very impressive weapons. We produce cost-over-runs and they produce unstoppable jamming systems.

"Kocic said that having been repeatedly ignored for years as central banks took the reins in hopes of fixing the global economy, only to leave a world that is vastly better for the 1% and starkly worse for everyone else"
"angry middle-classes of the developed world will confuse the great wealth transfer inspired by central banks as the "globalism" to which they are responding"
It is doubtful that we can have globalism without the wealth transfer.
"in which case a critical question is required: if, as Kocic implies, the political process itself is broken, and as anger and resentment continues to pile up after the recent "populist" disappointments, just how will the massed millions express their frustrations and anger with a system which is more broken - both politically and economically - by the day?
Unfortunately, the all too obvious answer is most likely the correct one. "

The article touts creative destruction. Maybe that is why we don't have any bullet trains.
From "Dissensus" To "Democrazy": A Warning From Deutsche Bank | Zero Hedge

Korea is at it again; http://static.fjcdn.com/pictures/Nor...3e_3630311.jpg

[Danny B]

Protect your fiefdom and kill the whole economy

The war is progressing badly.....Langley vs White House. If that wasn't bad enough, Soros provided a $259 million line of credit to Kushner. Kushner seems to be calling a lot of the shots. Trump is fighting a war on 2 fronts. A lot of the holdovers in various federal agencies are running blockades.
Armstrong, "This civil war taking place inside Washington is to be expected. The corruption in the swamp is so embedded, I remain sceptical if anyone can really drain it. If Trump cannot deliver the tax cuts and soon, then you know that the other side is winning the war."
" was concerned about this possibility because it was Kushner who brought in Goldman Sachs."

"But this is going deeper. The people Trump has installed are being circumvented by the bureaucracy. Trump�s campaign staffers are at war against the establishment GOP types embedded within federal agencies. Some of Trump�s people are being targeted with potential career-destroying leaks. Trump�s attack on Syria was to placate the neo-cons."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...s-a-civil-war/
"This raises the question: Will the intelligence community protect the country or sabotage Trump to save their own budgets?"
They can NOT save their budgets if Trump is blocked at every turn. Nobody will be saved.

Getting back to the tax cuts. The tax cuts just aren't going to happen. Paralysis in D.C. is one thing. Outright revolt is completely different.
Trump Scraps "Phenomenal" Tax Plan, Goes Back To Drawing Board | Zero Hedge
Imagine the swamp, https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images...pg?w=800&h=475

The pensions seem to be $ 5.2 trillion short, Pensions Crisis Is Unavoidable and Here | Zero Hedge
4/10 Americans obsessed with putting everything on credit � MarketWatch
NEXT
4/10 Great debt unwind: consumer bankruptcies jump, first since 2010 � Wolf Street
Lies from Bloomberg, "Foreigners currently own 43 percent of the $13.9 trillion Treasury market." Yeah right, The BLICS bought it all up when China, et al ran away from the market.
4/10 China debt problem is massive at $35 trillion, on par with Greece � ValueWalk
Just ignore it and it will go away.
EVERYBODY is going to block EVERYTHING that Trump tries to do. This will ensure that all remedies needed for, the debt ceiling, Budget, Health care, tax reform, etc will all die in Committee.

The current plight of the EU screams for AI to run the show and escape from the control of giant egos.
"Just to add more weedkiller to the poisonous formulation, the key European leaders not only ignored the advice; they also first, ignored all the data showing that several member States were nowhere near ready to join the eurozone based on agreed criteria"
"Messrs Hollande and Muscovici shrink from the limelight about their own book on the subject of cultural difference (fancy that) but it proved to be spot on�.as did the musings of Lawson and Thatcher et al in relation to Germany�s dominance. " Ignore any ideas that don't agree with what you already believe.

The punishment on Germany that came out of the treaty of Versailles guaranteed another war. After WW II, the allies did a massive debt forgiveness.
"The Mark from around 1963 until the creation of EMU was the most reliable, performance-related currency on the planet. But only massive debt forgiveness by the victors after the Second World War enabled that outcome."
"media coverage that has been so bombed, excavated, deliberately over-watered and then tilted for good luck by Brussels, Wall Street and Berlin obfuscation and mendacity since 2010"
"thanks to blatant illegality in lending by Goldman Sachs, and flagrant embezzlement of said borrowing by the Greek Rightist �lite " Normal.

"would�ve been relatively harmless � had not former German Interior Minister Wolfgang Sch�uble decided to steer SS Eunatic towards a second iceberg by (a) refusing to cancel the order placed by Greece with Germany (under NATO pressure) for two submarines costing �150bn," No matter how poor Greece was, they had to spend tons of money on armaments.

"Seven years on, Wolfie and his eurogrope creature Jeraboam Dunghillbloke are still at it, socio-economic vandals with nobody in the modern annals of business coming close to their level of arrogant neo-racist stupidity. Data released yesterday showed another contraction in the Greek economy, alongside an �unexpectedly� steep fall in exports during March. Why was this unexpected, we ask ourselves: equally predictable was a whopping �1.5bn of capital outflow, showing an acceleration to �3.9bn since the start of 2017. The gdp of Greece has now fallen 40% since Spring 2010, and a quarter of the population is unemployed."

"No other developed country on the planet has such an economic gdp imbalance in favour of banking, financial services, and globally marketed fiscal advice as the UK.
We too have fragile banks and an aversion to effective regulation�both the inbred children of ill-advised lustful intercourse between City Masters of the Universe and Westminster *****s."
"But I am asking those with a brain and an open mind to accept that Brusselian megalomania and Frankfurt sociopathy have destroyed the European dream to which many of us signed up in 1975."
"Nor do I present the same rosey picture of the future depicted by gargoyles like Liam Fox and Boris Johnson. It is going to be tough. But very soon, it�s going to be tough for every human being around the globe"
https://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2017/04...of-ss-eutanic/

NOBODY is taking this seriously enough. Everybody wants to protect their niche, their scam, their sinecure, their budget, their pension. The final result will be, nothing is protected.

[Danny B]

The whole thing is crashing so... the politicians are going on vacation

Most of the last post is about politics rather than about economics. Since we are surrounded by crony capitalism and controlled by egomaniac criminals, politics is what to watch to see the next step. I'll start with the lies so you can understand what so many people in power believe.
"A deep recession might explain an extinction-level event for large retailers. But GDP has been growing for eight straight years, gas prices are low, unemployment is under 5 percent, and the last 18 months have been quietly excellent years for wage growth, particularly for middle- and lower-income Americans."
https://www.theatlantic.com/business...f-2017/522384/
4/11 Retail apocalypse having terrifying impact on one corner of Wall St � Business Insider

�The central banks are leading the world into a black hole and have no idea what disaster they have created. What initially seemed like a nice money spinner for the private bankers in 1913 when the Fed was created, has resulted in a $2 quadrillion (at least) monster that is now totally out of control��

The economy has NOT grown in �real terms�. We are living in a false economy! On short term, The Fed has been focused on instant gratification. "
"Former Federal Chairman, Ben Bernanke, wrote an editorial in which supports �that the FED acts to support the stock market because it wants spending by rich people to trickle down to the rest of the economy�.
The Brewing Storm That Is Coming? | Gold Eagle

"Having been found guilty, they presently owe $7.2 billion to the US Department of Justice and are now facing an additional $10 billion litigation bill. Unfortunately, the bank is already broke and, should Deutsche Bank actually be able to sell the new shares, the $8.6 billion they hope to receive will still not save them from bankruptcy."
So, the lawyer bill is higher than the fine.
"It�s safe to say that Germany�s largest bank will soon go the way of the dodo."
"However, Deutsche is the bank that funds the euro system, which they can now no longer do. Further, Deutsche is ten times larger than Lehman Brothers, an American bank that famously went down in 2008, heralding in that year�s economic crash. (Ninety percent of Deutsche�s revenue has been from derivative trading, which is what brought down Lehman.)"

"Upon the collapse of Deutsche Bank, four major US banks would be expected to become insolvent in a matter of days."
So Many Triggers | International Man
"On 15th March, the US hit its debt ceiling and can no longer legally continue to borrow money. It�s estimated that the money remaining in the Treasury will be exhausted on 1st June. After that point, if major money transfusions do not take place, the US government ceases to fund itself, its many agencies, and its entitlements. (There apparently is no plan in place that could provide sufficient funding.)"

You get the idea. The banks bought the politicians and ran wild with speculation. They squeezed the productive class until it failed. FED GOV is fining European banks to squeeze out money (extortion). It's not just U.S. GOV that is hunting for more fines.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...ting-for-more/
The failure of expanding socialism has the States shaking down the banks.
" In the end, it will matter little which trigger it will be, as, like a string of firecrackers, when one explodes, a chain reaction is set off. Therefore, anyone who is dependent in a significant way upon the government, financial institutions, and/or markets of any of the major Western powers " (will be screwed) Firecrackers is more appropriate than dominoes.

OK, so FED GOV runs out of money at the beginning of summer. DO NOT WORRY. They are hard at work to come up with a compromise and a solution.
Congress Heads Out For Vacation As Government Shutdown Looms | Zero Hedge

Elected politicians ( and dictators) pass out jobs to their cronies. In the case of Trump, that would be smart billionaires. Obummer followed the normal Marxist plan and appointed starry-eyed idiots (like Goolsby and Jarret) to his cabinet.
4/10 Venezuelans pour into Caracas streets in anti-Maduro protest � CNBC
Chavez and Maduro may have meant well but, intentions are no substitute for intelligent action. Venezuela is flat broke even though they have more oil than Saudi Arabia. The lefties can't run the oil company and now, they don't even have domestic gasoline.
"Supplies are dangerously low in Venezuela, he said, and most of the country�s fluid catalytic cracker units that make gasoline are out of commission. "
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-the-caribbean

Armstrong, the majority are always wrong, https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...-always-wrong/

[Danny B]

China shadow banking,,,, opiate addiction

In China, the shadow banking system just keeps creating bigger mountains of new debt. GOV has threatened to let them fail when they have problems. GOV is trying to rein in credit creation. The shadow banks are playing a game of "chicken" with the investors and GOV.
How China Is Keeping Its Financial System From Collapsing, In One Chart | Zero Hedge
Apparently, nobody wants to face the music. What happens when the debt becomes to big,,, too unstable?
Debt as % underlying GDP
138%
165%
244%
385%
513%
So, Debt as % underlying GDP will hit 513% of underlying GDP by 2020. That isn't so very far away. https://surplusenergyeconomics.files...-2-19-3171.pdf

"The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization estimates that about 795 million people of the 7.3 billion people in the world, or one in nine, were suffering from chronic undernourishment in 2014-2016."
There is plenty of food. They just don't have any money.
The farmers are losing money producing more food than people can afford.
Grains piled on runways, parking lots, fields amid global glut | Reuters

The banks have vertically integrated the hard drug business and business is booming. It helps that the U.S. military is protecting the poppy crop in Afghanistan from those dastardly Taliban. It is also a big help that NATO is doing much of the drug distribution in Europe. The CIA runs the show in the Americas. The drug business couldn't get enough growth so, they enlisted
the doctors to write as many painkiller prescriptions as possible. Everybody is hooked on cowboy cocaine and business is great.
"the scale of the present wave of heroin and opioid abuse is unprecedented. Fifty-two thousand Americans died of overdoses in 2015�about four times as many as died from gun homicides and half again as many as died in car accidents. "
Very good article on opiate addiction.
https://www.firstthings.com/article/...erican-carnage

4/11 Toshiba warns of its ability to continue as going concern � Bloomberg Like Sears, they announced this when everybody already knew.
4/11 AAA study: Third of U.S. car owners can�t afford surprise repairs � USA Today
4/11 The auto industry has peaked� here�s the proof � Casey Research
We reached peak-wages and complete debt saturation. What did they think would come next?
4/11 California cities� pension tab seen almost doubling in 5 years � Bloomberg
Don't worry,,,, just keep raising taxes.

[Danny B]

Free money fighting off delinquincies and defaults

In spite of the claims that the BLICS are buying treasury debt, the FED is buying all of it. Same for the stock market.
"The Federal Reserve alone has injected $3.9 trillion dollars via three rounds of asset buying." "Central banks have pumped $9 trillion into the global economy"
Sep 8, 2016, I'm sure that much more has been pumped in during the following 6 months.
The upper loop had / has no respect for the wage earner.
4/12 Ignore the commentators, consumption really doesn�t matter � Real Clear Markets
The attitude is; we'll all get rich with financial engineering. The FED is pumping in liquidity from one end while the defaults are chipping away at bank balance sheets at the other end. The FED is buying confidence but, just how much is it willing to pay? At what point does the rubber band snap?

" Major financial institutions in this country are in possession of over $14 trillion worth of residential real estate loans."
"There are now over 1 million ordinary and subprime auto loans that are delinquent, "
"There is now well over a trillion dollars worth of student loan debt in this country; much of it owned by low income families. And there�s little hope that these students will ever see a return on their investment. That�s why at least 27% of student loans are in default. While more than one in four students are in default now"
"And of course that projection lines up perfectly with what I have been saying for quite a while. In order for key measures of stock market valuation (such as CAPE, etc.) to return to their long-term averages, stocks are going to have to fall at least 40 to 50 percent from their current levels."
What Is America Going To Look Like When Stocks, Home Prices And Even Used Cars All Crash By At Least 50 Percent?
The upper loop just prints more free money. The lower loop defaults. At what point will the problems of the lower loop overwhelm the financial system?

Here are 4 excellent graphs that show our progress towards insolvency, "You Are Here" | Zero Hedge
Like Chicago, New York is growing more and more socialist. Like Chicago, people are moving out.
Escape From New York � Financial Survival Network

4/12 UK inflation holds steady at near four-year high � CNBC
4/12 Savings rates turn NEGATIVE amid biting inflation � Express
4/12 Shopping boom slows down as inflation eats into spending power � Telegraph
Imagine that !! People in the lower loop can actually run out of money.

Here is a good article on the deep-state and the long game. It covers a lot and is well worth reading.
Of Two Minds - Who's Playing The Long Game--and What's Their Game Plan?
"China's GDP up 3-fold since 2006, but debt is up 6-fold--and still ramping up fast. "

" Take a moment to consider the Neocon camp's over-reaction to the inchoate challenge to its dominance posed by the Trump administration. What does their frantic over-reaction and full-court press by the media signal about their grasp on history and power?

What it signals to me is 1) they know they're losing the consent of the American public and are frightened of losing power 2) they've lost the judgment of history--their strategy has been an unmitigated disaster on all fronts: their Neoliberal strategy has weakened every nation that has embraced it (including the U.S.) and their interventionist Neocon strategy has failed in its objectives, generated uncontrollable blowback and unintended consequences and weakened America's position and power.

The Neocon behavior is that of a cornered beast. Every potential adversary is deemed a potentially mortal threat, generating a ceaseless flow of self-destructive over-reaction. "

A friend wrote asking about an attack from North Korea. I told him that he had more to fear from the Easter Bunny than from N.K.
Their rockets almost always flop. The fear-mongers in GOV act like America doesn't have any interceptors for incoming missiles.

[Danny B]

The FED just got religion, What to do about Germany

"the Keynesian elites may have found a new ally in their plan to derail the new President...the U.S. Federal Reserve.

First, it's important to understand that the Fed is populated by a group of big-government tax and spend liberal academics who operate under the guise of an apolitical body. For the past eight years, they have diligently kept the monetary wheels well-greased to prop up the flat-lining economy.
However, since the election the Fed has done a complete about-face on rate hikes "
"Remember, it was the Fed's mishandling of its interest rate policy that both created and burst the 2008 real estate bubble. By slashing rates from 6.5 percent in January 2001, to 1 percent in June 2003, it created a massive credit bubble. Then, it raised rates back up to 5.25 percent by June of 2006, which sent home prices, stock values and the economy cascading lower."
"But during those eight years of the Obama Administration, the Fed barely uttered the words asset bubble. In fact, it argued that asset bubbles are impossible to detect until after they have burst.

But since the November election, the Fed's henchmen have suddenly uncovered a myriad of asset bubbles, inflation scares and an issue with rapid growth. And are preparing markets for a hasty and expeditious rate hike strategy."
"San Francisco Fed President John Williams's also told reporters that he, "would not rule out more than three increases total for this year."
"The Fed is comprised of a group of Keynesian liberals that have suddenly found religion with its monetary policy because it is no longer trying to accommodate a Democrat in the White House. "
http://www.24hgold.com/english/news-...ael+Pento&mk=1

" The government is $19 trillion in debt.
The Pentagon�s annual budget consumes almost 100% of individual income tax revenue.
The government has spent $4.8 trillion on wars abroad since 9/11, with $7.9 trillion in interest. As the Atlantic points out, we�re fighting terrorism with a credit card."
$7.9 trillion in interest charges. No wonder the banks want continuous war.


" Taxpayers are being forced to pay $1.4 million per hour to provide U.S. weapons to countries that can�t afford them.
The U.S. government spends more on wars (and military occupations) abroad every year than all 50 states combined spend on health, education, welfare, and safety."
So, who's idea was all this war BS?
"Eventually, as I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People, all military empires fail."
Beware The Dogs Of War: Is The American Empire On The Verge Of Collapse? | Zero Hedge

Keep in mind that the last few American (and Kenyan) presidents promised while campaigning that they would end the wars and bring the soldiers home.

As already reported, retail is crashing worse than ever, http://www.oftwominds.com/photos2017/CRE-closings2.png
The millennials are turning their backs on chasing the American dream. They are flat broke so, that makes the decision easier, Of Two Minds - Millennials Are Abandoning the Postwar Engines of Growth: Suburbs and Autos


"JUDEA DECLARES WAR ON Germany Jews Of All The World Unite In Action "Judea Declares War on Germany!" - Daily Express headline, March 24, 1933. ... Fourteen million Jews stand together as one man, to declare war against Germany."
Germany was the super-producer.
Churchill, "WW II could have been avoided but, the bankers wanted it." "World War 1
"Should Germany merchandise (do business) again in the next 50 years we have led this war (WW1) in vain."
- Winston Churchill in The Times (1919)"
"World War 2
"We will force this war upon Hitler, if he wants it or not." - Winston Churchill (1936 broadcast)

"Germany becomes too powerful. We have to crush it." - Winston Churchill (November 1936 speaking to US - General Robert E. Wood)

"This war is an English war and its goal is the destruction of Germany."
- Winston Churchill (- Autumn 1939 broadcast)"
"Germany�s unforgivable crime before WW2 was its attempt to loosen its economy out of the world trade system and to build up an independent exchange system from which the world-finance couldn�t profit anymore. ...We butchered the wrong pig."
-Winston Churchill (The Second World War - Bern, 1960)

"We made a monster, a devil out of Hitler. Therefore we couldn�t disavow it after the war. After all, we mobilized the masses against the devil himself. So we were forced to play our part in this diabolic scenario after the war. In no way we could have pointed out to our people that the war only was an economic preventive measure."
- US foreign minister James Baker (1992) "
"The reason was the success of his increase in building a new economy. The roots of war were envy, greed and fear."
- Major General J.F.C. Fuller, historian, England

"We didn�t go to war in 1939 to save Germany from Hitler...or the continent from fascism. Like in 1914, we went to war for the not lesser noble cause that we couldn�t accept a German hegemony over Europe."
- Sunday Correspondent, London (17.9.1989) "

OK, you get the idea. What now? Germany is the super-producer once again. Germany has hegemony of Europe once again. The damn Krauts just work too hard... Mama mia !

[Danny B]

Spread.... european bonds.... shutdown

Spread, "The spread is simply the difference of what banks borrow short, lend long, and live on the spread between the two. "
"If the Federal Reserve follows the path it is communicating, if the 10yr performs as it has for the last 4 decades, and the inverted spread indicates what it has for the last 7 decades, we will be in recession in 2018."
https://econimica.blogspot.com/2017/...unicating.html

The banks live on spread. What happens if nobody borrows? Keep in mind that the banks only have about 50% of the assets that they need.
These Four Charts Reveal the “Ugly” Truth | Casey Research

As soon as Trump took over, he should have sent lots of treasury bills to the FED to be monetized. He didn't.
The Treasury runs out of money by June 1st at the latest. Trump wanted to cut back on GOV expenditures right from the start. That just isn't how it works.
He just doesn't understand the momentum in the system.

"The fiscal 2017 year-to-date deficit was $527 billion compared with $459 billion in the same period of fiscal 2016."
U.S. government posts $176 billion deficit in March | Reuters
Trump will need to get congress to pass continuing resolutions to keep funding the American monster. It seems highly unlikely that he will get what he wants.
Members of Congress have headed back to their districts for a two-week recess after one of the most bitterly divided sessions in history that culminated with Republicans launching the 'nuclear option' to confirm Supreme Court Justice Neil Gorsuch. Unfortunately, upon their return to Washington DC, they will have just 5 days to unveil, debate and pass a spending bill, or trigger a government shutdown on April 28.

April 23 is the first round in French elections. May 7th is the final round. If Le Pen wins, the fallout is expected to be disastrous for the bond market. Japanese investors are dumping French bonds. The fear from France is causing a contagion of fear for Italian bonds. The Eurozone is pretty much one big disaster anyhow. What happens to EU bonds when Deutsche bank goes bust and can't finance the EU anymore?

[Danny B]

Pensions are at the bottom of the list

The world is pretty much transfixed by the drama in Syria and North Korea. We'll see just how that works out.
The bond king, Bill Gross writes an extremely detailed analysis of why growth and consumption are falling. He NEVER mentions a falling birth rate and falling wages.
https://www.janus.com/insights/bill-...tment-outlook/

"So let�s look beyond the approaching darkness and start planning for after the (inevitable if not imminent) implosion of the fiat currency/fractional reserve banking system. In other words, what should we expect to buy with our hyper-appreciated gold and silver when financial assets like stocks and bonds have fallen to pennies on today�s dollar?"
No mention WHATSOEVER of cities burned to the ground and millions dead. Just make a profit and everything will be OK.
https://dollarcollapse.com/after-the...-solar-stocks/

Trump is at war with Langley. Will he cut of their money tree (plant) ?
Database Error

The jews are slowly waking up to the nature of their greatest enemy. Haaretz Calls Israeli Zionist Zealots More Dangerous Than Hezbollah

In the movie, Zardoz, nobody aged. In the movie Logan's Run, everybody is killed when they reach 30 years old.
"The very core tenet of Marxism and its two versions called socialism and communism is to actually replace the family structure"
"Here I show how the welfare state's growth can be viewed as the transfer of the "dependency" function from families to state employees."
https://mises.org/library/what-has-g...e-our-families

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GRIQAgrjfk0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UXq-MvXcB-g
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-EUHaKCeDt0

The State is hard at work to destroy the family. The problem emerges that they also destroy society at the same time. The State demands that you owe them allegiance and in return, the State will support you. You are now dependent on the State.
This has gotten very expensive. The elderly are only valued by their close family and not by bureaucrats. GWB said that all the money was gone from the SS fund. It has been replaced by non-negotiable treasury notes.

In a perfect world, everybody would up and die as soon as they became unproductive.
"Indeed, it is truly a working city. By this, there are no retirees there. Individuals who quit working or retire generally have 30 days to exit. If you live in Dubai, you work. It�s that simple"
https://fee.org/articles/us-immigrat...ent-every-day/

FED GOV unfunded liabilities are reckoned at $ 212 trillion (Kotlikoff). Public and private pension plans are going bankrupt right and left. The Pension Benefit Guarantee Corporation is way underfunded. Even the pension plans of the companies of the S&P 500 are only fractionally funded. All this is AFTER the enormous rise in the stock market.

The nuclear family has been destroyed in so many cases. Employment has been wiped out by automation and outsourcing. Society is falling apart. Drug addiction is WAY up. Doctors write about 80 million prescriptions for anti-depressants every year in America.

"Is it true that antidepressant prescriptions are soaring?
There has certainly been a substantial rise in the last decade � the numbers have doubled from just under 30m in England in 2005 to 61m last year. The rise between 2014 and 2015 was 3.9m. So that�s a fairly big jump in the numbers of prescriptions for antidepressants being written � mostly by GPs. According to the Health and Social Care Information Centre, which published the data, it is the �greatest numeric rise� of any drug class in the last year.
Isn�t that one prescription for everybody in the UK � or more to the point, more than one for each of the 50 million inhabitants of England?"

The Marxists wanted to destroy the family to usher in world socialism. They have destroyed mental health at the same time. The coming cascade of default will hit the elderly the most.