Economic pressures

[Danny B]

Austerity,,, NOT in France

"The French GOV spends about 57% of the GDP.
"The Maastricht debt criterion governing a country’s eligibility for joining the single currency was that the gross debt to GDP ratio was to be no higher than 60pc"
"This year it looks as though, in gross terms, the French debt to GDP ratio will be just above 98pc. "
http://www.energeticforum.com/redire...than-ours.html

7/06 French central bank chief warns of sovereign debt risk – Reuters It's kind of late to catch on.
7/06 Three in four recent graduates work for less than 800 euros a month – Ekathimerini No money honey.
7/06 The Fed grows worried its loose policy threatens US financial stability – CNBC No kidding. The FED caught on about the same time as the French.
Now EU DEMANDS France increases austerity amid deficit breach
France Produces a 'No Austerity' Budget, Defying E.U. Rules
7/06 Europe’s quietly growing poor population is getting louder – Occupy Yes, the poor are getting louder.
Like the State of Illinois, the France refuse to consider fiscal prudence. Socialism rots the brain in a couple of critical areas. Even with generous welfare, muslims in France burn about 40,000 cars a year to show their displeasure. Cut off the welfare in a collapse and watch most of Marseilles burn. Paris won't be far behind.

Hugo Salinas Price has been campaigning for a long time to get various governments to mint a silver coin so that people could have a secure store of value. He seems like a really nice guy. I'm afraid that he just doesn't understand. The bankers don't want ANY store-of-value that they can't diminish.
He does have a very GOOD plan for how to go about it.
.:Plata:.

[Danny B]

Jam on the bakes at the edge of the cliff

The lofty ivory towers of academia are the omniscient advisers to the omnipotent (they wish ) State. They send their best and brightest (always jews) to run the most powerful central bank in the world. Yellen is so clueless, it is a waste of time to quote any of her utterances. Greenpsan was the gran vizier who saved the world by cranking up the printing presses. Keep in mind that academia, for the most part has exactly ZERO experience in the real world of finance.

Bernanke, "1.) The Bank of Japan should continue to pursue its goal of 2 percent inflation because it will restore economic stability in the future by restoring the ability of monetary policy to respond to future economic contractions. "
"Bank of Japan’s balance sheet has grown to about 88 percent of Japan’s GDP at the end of 2016 compared to 24 percent for the Federal Reserve and 34 percent for Europe’s ECB."

"Former Federal Reserve Chairman, Ben Bernanke, recently gave a pep talk to the Bank of Japan, discussing the nation’s monetary woes. As those of us that have been paying attention know, Japan’s economy has suffered from a multi-decade period of mediocrity with deflationary pressures present despite the Bank of Japan’s best efforts to stimulate inflation and reverse low economic growth rates."
Japan is being buried by Asian competition. Their population is crashing.
"reverse low economic growth rates" NOT ONE EFFING MENTION OF POPULATION.
Demographics The Central Bankers' Nightmare | Oye! Times

Academia considers economics to be a science. It probably is if you take into account a 1,000 variables. Academia considers a dozen and NONE of them are related to people.
The result, 7/07 Panicked BOJ unleashes bond buying bazooka – Zero Hedge

Central Banks;
Rethinking the Fed: more tightening than priced in? – Mish
7/07 Central banks pull the plug on bond market rally – CNBC
7/07 Gundlach sees more pain for bond bulls as hedge funds make exit – Bloomberg
7/07 Hawkish central bankers spark debate about the end of easy money – Bloomberg
7/07 Emerging currencies in bull’s-eye as more central banks signal hikes – Zero Hedge
It would appear that the CBs (outside of Japan) are going to take away the punchbowl. Everyone at the party is falling-down drunk on all the free money. Even the feces-for-brains at the FED have started to notice that they have been consistently wrong for many years. so, they are going to tighten just when Trump, et al need a LOT of money. What will the result be. Illinois gives us a clue.
7/07 Too much, too little, too late: junk status for Illinois coming up – Mish

[Danny B]

History of the State and respect for private property

"Property Law of the People's Republic of China
The amendment states "Citizens' lawful private property is inviolable.".
The law does not change the system of land tenure by which the state owns all land. However, in formalizing existing practice, individuals can possess a land-use right,"
"Gong Xiantian of Peking University, argued that it violated the constitutional characterization of the PRC as a socialist state."
Wiki

This is a very important distinction. Socialism does not allow for private ownership so, people won't invest time, effort or money into something that only has a shaky claim.
Armstrong, "Consequently, China will surpass the United States and the West because our Rule of Law is collapsing. Courts rule in favor of government routinely and once that happens, no property is secure any more. They are just confiscating cash presuming it is criminal in some way be it taxes or otherwise and they do not have to prove anything. This is demonstrating that the West will not be able to survive long-term without a security of property. Hence, you can see it coming. If China respects property rights, then capital will migrate to Asia and leave the West due to the lack of a Rule of Law."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...estment-flows/

It's true that Western GOVs are stealing everybody blind to try to keep GOV operating. The future question: who will steal more? Who will respect private property more? Who will levy the highest taxes? "They" wanted instant transfer of capital. Will they try to block this if capital transfers to the "wrong" jurisdiction? What will China do when they run out of water?
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...estment-flows/
With the LONG history of communism and socialism in China, I doubt that they will respect private property when push comes to shove.
It is easy to forget that the U.S. government will kick you off your land if you don't pay them yearly taxes. So, who really owns the land?
With the unfolding climate change, China will be hit hard by the growing drought.
https://image.slidesharecdn.com/wriy...?cb=1420960570
China is trying to have a managed socialist economy. This is some kind of hybrid that looks very suspicious.

Armstrong said that; if Macron won the election in France, it would embolden the socialists to further consolidate the hold of Brussels. Macron isn't the least bit shy about this.
"The new French President Emmanuel Macron has proposed reducing the size of the French parliament by one third. He is intent upon surrendering the sovereignty of France to Brussels and when the full scope of his “profound changes” are understood by the people, his agenda may result in a dramatic rise in civil unrest in France. At least 35% of the population wanted to leave the EU, not surrender entirely to it. The way to deal with opposition is to deny them a voice. Macron said:"
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...-by-one-third/

Right on the face of it, this tells you that the socialists have feces-for-brains. The French debt can never be reduced without blowing up the entire economy AND the muslim a-holes on the dole. Macron wants a close marriage to Brussels,,, and Brussels wants austerity. The French bond market will detonate like a fuel-air bomb if the French GOV slows down spending.
The EU Commission and EU parliament are now infighting. https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...lash-of-words/
What will they do when the bond market blows?

Then, to complicate ALL of this, will the blockchain negate the taxing powers of GOV?

[Danny B]

The poison spreads. Another freebie for Trump

The financial industry absolutely screams if a financial transaction tax is proposed. "The Tobin tax was developed with the intention of penalizing short-term currency speculation, and to place a tax on all spot conversions of currency." "the tax rate he suggested was 0.5%."
NOPE, can't have that. No matter how much money was raked in by the financials, they wouldn't let loose of a penny. This isn't stocks and bonds, JUST currency speculation. NO!
It's a complicated labyrinthine mess but; wages fell WAY down,,, the economy turned WAY down. Bank business fell way down. $Trillions were conjured up to save the TOO-NUMEROUS banks. Interest rates were driven down to make money cheaper and debt easier to service. Interest rates were crashed to keep high-interest-rate debt from defaulting.
The "cure" for saving bad debt (NIRP) was the poison that killed interest income. The banks felt that all that free money would allow them to still turn a profit as long as they could still add a couple of percentage points on top.

There are between 10,000 and 15,000 hedge funds.
"There were 5,926 insurance companies in 2015 in the United States (including territories)"
"The P&I 1,000 Largest Retirement Funds: 2015"
"The single-employer program protects 30 million workers and retirees in 22,000 pension plans. The multiemployer program protects 10 million workers and retirees in 1,400 pension plans. " Pension Benefit Guarantee Corporation.
"Total assets of the world’s largest 300 pension funds fell by over 3% in 2015"
"all other fund types declined: defined benefit (DB) plans assets by almost 5%; defined contribution (DC) by over 2%; and reserve funds by 0.3%."
https://www.willistowerswatson.com/e...ear-ended-2015
ALL of these various funds depend on interest income. The bankers wiped out interest-income with ZIRP, planning to survive with their lips firmly glued to the free-money sphincter. Apparently, they didn't do a lot of projection beyond their own selfish interests.

Connecticut; "Last year, the per-capita income there was $71,033, the highest in the nation"
"The hedge fund industry fell on hard times, with about 1,060 shuttering globally last year. UBS Group AG abandoned the world’s largest trading floor in Stamford"
"The population declined 23 percent between 1960 and 2000 and has remained stagnant ever since. A third of its residents live in poverty, a higher share than in Baltimore or Newark."
"The city has $672 million in debt, including $228 million of uninsured bonds"
"The city’s fiscal 2017 budget assumed $16.5 million of concessions (from unions), the bulk of which haven’t materialized."
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ith-bankruptcy

ZIRP is poison to the investment funds. They grey-haired demented school marm who is presiding as the front man at the most powerful CB is trying to raise interest rates to return some kind of income to all the many thousands of funds that are slipping away. The banks avoided paying out $400 billion in interest every year. That may crash ALL savers and ALL funds but, they believe that the banks will be OK. We'll see.
If she raises rates a few points, the majority of businesses will fail outright.

Aussie has the highest consumer debt so, naturally, they will have a VERY impressive crash.
7/07 Seven signs Australia can’t avoid economic apocalypse – News.com
Just, "hold your beer and watch it happen."
7/07 Oil prices fall more than 3% on signs the market remains oversupplied – CNBC Ah yes,,,,,,,,, the consumer remains under capitalized.
7/07 CNN now losing to Nick-At-Nite in prime time ratings war – Federalist

Not completely off-topic.
Keep in mind that the pedophile papacy attacked Trump for wanting to block the muslims. Turns out that the Vatican build a walled city centuries ago to,,, keep out the muslims.
Round two.
Global warming is a scam to collect carbon taxes and give them to wonderful people so that they can pump out LOTS more babies. There have been ENORMOUS amounts of data collected over the centuries about global temperature.
The dirty commie rat Merkel is pissed off at Trump because he says that global warming is a BIG, bogus scam. Off in the wings, the party is BLAZING. The "hockey stick" guy is about to have his hockey stick jammed up his waiting sphincter. There was just FAR TOO MUCH previous data. His hockey stick ERASED the Medieval Warm Period . He sued the guy who claimed that he was a fraud. It went to court and the bozo couldn't possibly show the MWP missing so, he refused the judges order to show his data. The fates went against him and he is going to get a good roasting.
https://www.technocracy.news/index.p...ey-stick-mann/
I'm sure that Trump is aware of this. He should print it on a Tee shirt and present it to Merkel,,,,, maybe overlayed with a hammer and sickle.

Because of capital flows and various advantages, Germany and China have done VERY well with globalism. Germany and China are pissed off that Trump wants to reverse globalism.
"“Major developed countries have significantly backtracked positions on trade, climate change and other issues,” Xi said" About that climate change,,,,,,,,,,, it's the sun. Pendejo!
"the U.S. will be represented by a president who embraces protectionism, forcing Germany and China into an informal alliance pushing the merits of free trade and action against climate change."
Yeah, Germany is a $trillion ahead and the rest of Europe is a $trillion in the red.
"G-20 nations have struggled in particular to bridge the divide with the U.S. on climate change after Trump announced he would pull out of the landmark Paris Agreement. "
The more you struggle, the STUPIDER you look.
"Another source of strife was U.S. pressure on China to cut its steel output," We buy almost NO steel from China.
http://www.ita.doc.gov/steel/countri...imports-us.pdf

[Danny B]

All the funds are starting to unwind,,, even the "FANGS" http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...706_eod5_0.jpg
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...705_eod4_0.jpg
Lots of graphs with lots of red arrows pointing down.
"They're Selling Everything" - Bonds, Stocks, Oil, Gold, & Dollar All Tumble | Zero Hedge

CC from here on, that is the abbreviation for cryptocurrencies.
"China Central Bank Advisor: "Bitcoin As A Currency Could Collapse Entire Economies"
The article is very interesting because it gives just a small window into the future possibilities of CC.
"Sheng Songcheng, a counselor at the PBoC, dismissed digital currencies like bitcoin as assets that lack the value basis of a legitimate currency. "Bitcoin does not have the fundamental attributes needed to be a currency as it is a string of code generated by complex algorithms, and does not have inherent value... But I do not deny that virtual currencies have technical value and are a type of asset," he said cited by Reuters. Apparently he is unaware that paper currencies - the type preferred by central bankers - is made of either strings of linen and paper or strings of 1s and 0s, and - while also having no inherent value - can be infinitely created out of thin air. "

"Sheng warned that the deflationary nature of digital currencies - unlike fiat money there is a hard limit on how much can be reated - would mean that they would not function well as a currency or medium of exchange in modern economies."
"His objection is to be expected: after all no central bank wants to be constrained in how much "money" it can print to stimulate inflation"
"Which, however, does not explain why various central banks like the ECB and BOE do hold a favorable outlook on digital currencies. One footnote here is that unlike Bitcoin, the digital currencies envision by central banks would be entirely under their control, in effect simply replacing one form of fiat for another, and better yet, making it digital so there is no place to hide the next time rates go negative."

"Bitcoin is not debt based. Every part is mined and paid for. Fiat is debt based and is created out of thin air, there is NO WORK involved. That is the real issue. "
China Central Bank Advisor: "Bitcoin As A Currency Could Collapse Entire Economies" | Zero Hedge

Buying politicians;
"Countless pro-Israel PACs funnel millions of dollars into American politicians’ coffers every election cycle.

“The pro-Israel groups went wild. To date some 126 pro-Israel PACs have been registered, and no fewer than 50 have been active in every national election over the past generation,” wrote Richard H. Curtiss in WRMEA."
“Israel receive from a variety of other U.S. federal budgets at least $525.8 million above and beyond its $3 billion from the foreign aid budget, and yet another $2 billion in federal loan guarantees… (for a yearly total of)… $5,525,800,000,” further explained Richard H. Curtiss.

This yearly tribute to the Israeli Empire does not include further billions of dollars that every so often they squeeze out of American taxpayers.

“The United States and Israel have reached final agreement on a record new package of at least $38 billion in U.S. military aid,” reported Reuters."
So, what happens to this generosity if the Sovereign bond market blows?

Brussels demands austerity from France. You saw what it did to Greece.
7/08 Even the IMF says austerity doesn’t work – Guardian
7/08 Why the next recession will be a doozie for consumers – Wolf Street Where do they find these adjectives? Millions will die.
7/08 Money is rushing into ‘the most dangerous trade in the world’ – CNBC Millions will be on the streets.
7/08 The US has been at war for over 220 in 241 years – AH Tribune Old news
7/08 Third circuit declares First Amendment right to record police – EFF Is there any mention of cops killing filmers?

[Danny B]

Idiocy, poverty and the birth rate.

The news talks about how Trump has made enemies out of the rest of the G-20. http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...708_g2-0_0.jpg
7/09 At G-20, world aligns against Trump policies – WaPo
The G-20 is just a house of fighting cats.
China just kicked Britain in the teeth, https://www.hongkongfp.com/2017/07/0...ndover-treaty/
South Korea just wants to avoid getting vaporized. Italy is like a keg of nitrogen triiodide balanced on top of a flagpole. Macron wants to jump in bed with Brussels when 35% of the French want a complete EU divorce.
ALL 4 wheels just fell off the global warming wagon, Articles: Things Get Hot for Michael Mann
Theresa May is standing under her own proverbial powder keg. The Japanese printing press is throwing off sparks and slowing down, no matter how hard they twist the rheostat.
Brussels is threatening France with Austerity because France is so wildly OUT of compliance with EU debt rules.
The population bomb is unsolvable under current "thinking" so, nobody goes near it.
Elon Musk: The world's population is accelerating toward collapse and nobody cares
7/05 Are you ready for world-wide cyber war? Because it’s already started – WNCN NOPE, not the least bit prepared.

Did the G-20 come up with a cure for total economic malaise? NOPE, There is NO saving it now.
http://media.peakprosperity.com/imag...wth-chart1.jpg
Did the G-20 come up with a cure for crushing public debt?
http://media.peakprosperity.com/imag...wth-chart4.jpg
Ditto

Is Japan going to lead the way out of the economic doldrums?
http://media.peakprosperity.com/imag...wth-chart5.jpg
https://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/...ility-degrowth

Who cares if Trump has pulled away from the G-20?

7/09 First public pensions, now private pensions are falling apart too – Birch Gold No kidding. Maybe that had something to do with ZIRP.
7/09 BofA stunned by drop in gasoline demand – Zero Hedge
102 million Americans of working age are unemployed

"According to the most recent Bureau of Labor Statistics release, the UE (unemployment) rate fell to 5.5% as of February. The last time the UE rate was this low was May of 2008.
5.5, imagine that
What I’m fascinated by is the fact that the US population grew from February 2008 to February 2015 by 16.8 million persons, or a 5.5% increase in total population, and on a net basis, not a single one of those 16.8 million persons got a FT (full time) job… while a net 2.7 million were lucky enough to get a (or multiple) PT (part time) job.

This means that 14.3 million persons, or 4.4% of the current US population, were added without a single job among them (chart below). This makes for fascinating math when a 4.4% increase of the total US population without jobs can nearly halve the UE rate down to 5.5%, equal to 2008’s UE rates?!?"
http://www.investingchannel.com/arti...s#.WWKKiY9xiR-

"So the dropping fertility rate is bad. How do we get it to increase? Economists are (as you might expect) at a loss for explanations, much less solutions. Here are some of the theories. " Just maybe, poverty has something to do with it.
https://www.theguardian.com/money/20...omists-baffled

“Over the last 35 years, America’s fertility rate has reflected, to some extent, the business cycle,” the Federal Reserve stated. However, this decline in the fertility rate “has been widespread across demographic groups and metro areas.”
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ame...rts-2015-08-18
http://www.businessinsider.com/why-l...decline-2015-9
Sep 22, 2015 - Follow Business Insider: Why Has Labor's Share of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) been declining for 40 Years?

[Danny B]

Socialism,,, anti-human nature

Socialism is a state where; the earner and the spender are different people. People who never had to work for the money spend it with less thought. The money runs out. If the earner is getting a bad deal, he loses motivation.
In Japan, the "salaryman" is famous for working tortuous hours. By tradition, he gives his check to his wife and she gives him an allowance of her choosing. MGTOW is a situation where a man does a cost / benefit analysis of a partner situation. The men in Japan have rightfully rejected this situation in favor of spending their money on their priorities.
Marriage and the birth rate have crashed through the basement.

All government is socialist, in that it takes from the producer and gives the money to some bureaucrat or other parasite. When the taxes get too heavy, it removes motivation. The 100% failure rate of socialism has never stopped it from being popular.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sElz_P6QsZo

The rise of monopolies, https://thedevelopmentset.com/monopo...a-41bdefff929e
"However, beginning in 1980 the trend changed with what I have called the “Breaking Point.” It’s hard to identify the exact culprit which ranged from the Reagan Administration’s launch into massive deficit spending, " Yep, deficit spending has a way of doing that.
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the...ath-of-keynes/

[Danny B]

Stocks have gone nowhere,,,, but, don't tell anybody

"Since July 2012 – so over the past five years – the trailing 12-month earnings per share of all the companies in the S&P 500 index rose just 12% in total. Or just over 2% per year on average. Or barely at the rate of inflation – nothing more."
Stock Market Tsunami Siren Goes Off | Wolf Street
Using the 1980 baseline methodology, inflation is running right at 10%.
http://www.shadowstats.com/imgs/sgs-...d&t=1497462527

Alternate Inflation Charts

Stocks are going nowhere. Negative earnings for at least a decade are papered over using currency inflation to make the numbers rise.
"The result of the stock buybacks is that net equity issuance has been negative for the last several years and bears a striking resemblance to the period leading up to the 2008 financial crisis,” David Ader wrote"
https://www.theinstitutionalriskanal...veraged-Buyout

A note from the Twilight Zone, " Witness the New York Fed president, William Dudley, a multimillionaire former partner and chief economist at Goldman Sachs. He's apparently worried about the unemployment rate, which clocked in at a historically low 4.4% in June, falling too quickly.

"If we were not to withdraw accommodation, the risk would be that the economy would crash to a very, very low unemployment rate and generate inflation,"
"John Williams at the San Francisco Fed has expressed similar sentiments.

"We've not only reached full employment mark — we've exceeded it by a fair amount,"
US jobless rate levels debated at Fed - Business Insider

Illinois is hard at work to provide some comic-relief in dreary days.
"In fact, they just passed their first budget in over two years. It raised personal income taxes by 32% and the corporate tax rate by 33%.

Those are huge tax increases. Surely this fixes the problem, right?

Not exactly.
The budget will raise just $5 billion. That will barely put a dent in the state’s $15 billion deficit."
"After all, it’s already $15 billion behind on its bills. And that doesn’t even include the state’s biggest liability: its broken public pension system."
"Today, Illinois’ pension system owes $250 billion more than it has"
https://www.caseyresearch.com/the-in...came-imminent/
So, Illinois hopes to raise $5 billion. BUT, they already have $800 million in interest penalties. Their pension debt jumped $18 billion in just one year.
https://files.illinoispolicy.org/wp-...v-1024x830.png They will NEVER catch up.

OK, so, the banks cancelled interest income for all the funds. The massive printing that was required to create ZIRP created enough price inflation to cancel out stock earnings....2% earnings and 10% price inflation.
NO INCOME from interest and / or stocks.
OK, the budget battle and debt ceiling is looming. How much will congress work together with Trump?
"Democrats have mounted filibusters on 90 percent of the president’s picks that have reached the Senate floor — much higher than the 10 percent rate that Republicans mounted for President Obama’s, the White House said."
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/...summer-recess/

We have steady price inflation and falling wages. The end result is; personal consumption has crashed.
http://static4.businessinsider.com/i...rice-index.png
7/11 Consumer credit surges most since November 2016 – Zero Hedge Surviving on plastic.
7/11 Japan has entered the next phase: unlimited money printing – Forbes
What to do when you can't afford to pay the cops? 7/11 Oregon poised to decriminalize meth, cocaine and heroin – Daily Caller

[Danny B]

Armstrong and the general picture

Merkel hasn't won an election in quite a while. She has to combine seats with some other party. She definitely doesn't want the news about the crashing German pension system to come out. FAT chance.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...system-crisis/
"The problem has been that government pretends that socialism is to take care of the poor when in fact they have their hand in the cookie jar before anyone else. "
"Everything has been destroyed by low interest rates to save banks at the expense of pension funds and private investment."
"The public has been brainwashed to think that government debt is “safe” when it is the most risky in the field. " "Even Draghi in Europe now realizez that there is a pension crisis and he is really to blame for 10 years of low to zero interest rates that have utterly failed to save the economy."
Screw the economy. He is a GS alumnus and only wanted to save GS.
"This is the Sovereign Debt Crisis. It is inevitable and irreversible. The Solution I have put forth is really the only way out to prevent complete civil meltdown. But it is unlikely that any such Solution will be adopted until we actually experience the Crash and Burn. That seems to be starting in 2018."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...he-crash-burn/

"When the army defends the corruption of politicians, there will be blood in the streets. Only when the army stands with the people will government collapse. "
"It will always come down to where the army stands. Government has no power if the army defends the constitution and the people against tyranny. If the army is corrupted and stands only to get their’s, then the empire crumbles to dust as what took place in Rome."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...upon-the-army/

Catalonia REALLY wants to get away from Spain,,, primarily the bureaucracy in Madrid. https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...ak-from-spain/

" Merkel thought she could score a major diplomatic triumph by getting everyone together to gang-up on Trump over the climate accord."
"What took place was that not merely was she unable to intimidate Trump, but China also insisted on being able to expand its carbon energy use agreeing with Trump."
She even "accidentally" left a mic turned on to try to trap Trump into something or other.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...ed-g20-summit/

So, austerity is a complete failure. AND, low interest rates have failed.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...s-have-failed/
Deutsche Bank does a lot of research. Here is their conclusion, http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...licopter-money

[Danny B]

sovereign downgrades

" The global bond bull began back in 1981, when 30 year US Treasury yields peaked at 15.2%. Now, over 35 years later, long bond yields are below 3%."
https://mises.org/sites/default/file...?itok=fdbf8Oh3
As our effective wages continue to fall, the cost of money continues to fall.
But, ZIRP destroys everything in it's path.
"The problem facing the likes of Janet Yellen, Mark Carney [makes sign of the cross and looks urgently for garlic] and Mario Draghi is that, having now weaponized short term lending rates, the nukes can’t be put back in their silos."

"NATO’s original raison d’etre was stated to be blocking a Soviet invasion of Western Europe. The only problem with that rationale is that the Soviet Union never had the slightest interest in doing so. "
"the “Cold War” became a wildly successful cover story for US aggression."
"As a result of the demise of NATO, European countries become unreliable allies for future US aggressions."
Most of the article is an attack on Trump.
https://www.counterpunch.org/2017/07...o-an-obituary/
Macron goes on to push for a European army. Nigel Farage blows that idea out of the water.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hI5_pMvLZd8

If the West isn't careful it will be VERY hard pressed to find new wars to start.

7/12 S&P warns more sovereign downgrades likely this year – Reuters Didn't Armstrong mention this?
Nicole Foss writes about "life after complexity".
https://www.theautomaticearth.com/20...er-complexity/
This is mostly about the EROEI of our current systems.

"He outlined three financing tiers that progressed from hedged (where income flows adequately cover all interest and principal payments), to speculative where interest payments are met, but not principal, to the final most dangerous stage – Ponzi, where receipts are insufficient to cover even interest payments. The hope is at this stage, that underlying assets will appreciate sufficiently to cover liabilities."
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the...minsky-moment/

Deutsche Bank says that we will jump to helicopter money. I doubt that the system can roll it out fast enough. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...licopter-money
7/11 US wholesale inventories post largest gain in 5 months – CNBC Read that as; slowest sales in 5 months.

[Danny B]

oil losing,,,living on plastic and lies

Iran sees oil output rising to 4 million bpd by year end - Reuters
"The U.S. shale industry has already added almost a half million barrels per day since the end of last year, taking production up to 9.3 million barrels per day (mb/d)"
"major banks and investors have showered the industry with credit and equity, pouring an estimated $57 billion into the sector over the past 18 months. All of that money is being translated into a sharp rise in drilling even as oil prices slump."
"Despite efficiency improvements, the shale industry is expected to be cash flow negative by a combined $20 billion this year as oil prices sink."
Is Wall Street Funding A Shale Failure? | OilPrice.com
What happens when that $ 20 billion stops?

"12 month WTI at or below $40 (will blow the system).
How Much Longer Can Junk Bonds Ignore Tumbling Oil? UBS Has The Answer | Zero Hedge

Public debt is considered risk-free,,,,,, between defaults. It is definitely rising.
http://www.oftwominds.com/photos2017/US-debt1-17.png
We are living on plastic and lies. http://www.oftwominds.com/photos2017...Living5-17.png
The CBs have kept the party going for a long time but, are now having second thoughts. The mountain is getting too high.
http://www.oftwominds.com/photos2017...ance-sheet.jpg
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...s-are-thinning
"Money" is created with a debt-load. More and more new money must be created to to fulfil the debt load. The money slowly seeps up to the upper loop and leaves less and less for the lower loop. More and more must be pumped into the upper loop to avoid defaults. The debt burden gets bigger.

7/13 15% of Greenlight Capital investors submit redemption requests – Zero Hedge
7/13 Global stocks hit new all time high – Zero Hedge
The eternal fight between greed and fear.
Kunstler, http://kunstler.com/cluster****-nati...ally/#more-%27
The Overton Bubble, http://thefutureprimaeval.net/the-overton-bubble/

[Danny B]

GOV debt is starting to stink

“Illinois is like Venezuela now, a fiscally broken state that has lost its will to live, although for the moment, we still have enough toilet paper.

But before we run out of the essentials, let’s finally admit that after decade upon decade of taxing and spending and borrowing, Illinois has finally run out of other people’s money.”
"understand that socialism has really been about government helping themselves to other people’s money for their personal benefit. "
"Their constitution says that government pensions come before everything else. "
"The best thing to do is to break Illinois into pieces right now. Just wipe us off the map."
"This is the reality we face going forward. I have stressed before to get out of all government debt in the state and local level and buy NO MORE!!!!!"
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...-the-solution/

"not only did the US deficit surge to $90 billion, far above the $38 billion consensus estimate, and a "NM" compared to the $6.3 billion budget surplus in June of last year, but the US also saw the biggest one month outlay on record, at $429 billion, 33% higher than the $323 billion in outlays one years ago. "
"it appears that the deficit for the fiscal year, which has three months left, will be in the $650 billion to $700 billion range, if not even higher, mostly due to the surge in "subsidy costs of housing and student loans" guaranteed by the Treasury.

Combining these two means that YTD, the deficit jumped to $523.1BN vs $399.2BN last year."
Obummer undercounted the deficit by 20% and now, the numbers have come out.
The Striking Reason Why The US Just Spent A Record $429 Billion In One Month | Zero Hedge
WAIT a minute. What about the looming debt ceiling & budget battle?

"The War of Northern Aggression was about tariffs and northern economic imperialism. The North was protectionist. The South was free trade. The North wanted to finance its economic development by forcing the South to pay higher prices for manufactured goods. The North passed the Morrill Tariff which more than doubled the tariff rate to 32.6% and provided for a further hike to 47%."
"The purpose of Lincoln’s war was to save the empire, not to abolish slavery. In his first inaugural address Lincoln “made an ironclad defense of slavery.” His purpose was to keep the South in the Empire despite the Morrill Tariff."
The Power of Lies -- Paul Craig Roberts - PaulCraigRoberts.org

7/14 US retail sales drop unexpectedly – CNBC We're maxing out the plastic.
7/14 Don’t panic, but your Bitcoins may just vanish into the ether next month – Register
7/14 Falling costs push renewable investment ahead of fossil fuels – Oil Price WAIT, what about that $ 20 billion in negative cash flow?

[Danny B]

Flaming oil,,, easy money,,the dark side of globalization

Cash flow negative by a combined $20 billion as oil prices sink"
Is Wall Street Funding A Shale Failure? | OilPrice.com
Oil went to $ 140 and the economy froze up. The FED turned on the presses and, at least some of the money had to flow into oil and gas. Free money from the junk-bond market brought us more oil. That $20 billion is the price difference between what we paid at the pump and the actual cost. So, what does that hold for the future? Finance is losing money on oil. If the price goes up, the economy freezes. If it doesn't go up, finance croaks.
How big is this problem??????

"outlook for oil supplies is “increasingly worrying”, due to a loss of $1trillion (1,000 billion) in investments last year.last year."
The Technical Failure That Could Clear The Oil Glut In A Matter Of Weeks | Zero Hedge

For every irresponsible borrower, there has to be an irresponsible lender. Stand in the line at the bank and somebody would approach you and ask if you wanted to borrow any money. It was just TOO EASY. Where does that eventually lead?
"If you believe that going from a total debt burden (government and personal debt) per household being 79% of median household income to debt per household being 584% of median household income doesn't matter and will have no consequences, you believe in magic."
http://www.oftwominds.com/photos2017/debt-totals2.jpg
oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith: We Do These Things Because They're Easy: Our All-Consuming Dependence on Debt

What about the social attitudes? What about the loss of self-control?
"Talent is best nurtured in solitude,,, character is best developed in the stormy billows of the world." What about the general abandonment of morality? What about trust and fortitude? What about family ties? How many people are actually able to cut the umbilical cord to GOV?
The FED has a printing press. The States DO NOT. Armstrong said to get out of GOV debt. A lot of people listen to him. What about the contagion from Illinois?,,, followed by California?

It was obvious (to me) decades ago that instant transfer of goods(almost) and capital would tend to concentrate these in a small number of locales.
"After years of hedging or discounting the malign effects of free trade, it was time to face facts: globalisation caused job losses and depressed wages"
"Theresa May, the leader of the party of capital and inherited wealth, improbably picked up the theme, warning that, for many, “talk of greater globalisation … means their jobs being outsourced and wages undercut.”
"It was only a few decades ago that globalisation was held by many, even by some critics, to be an inevitable, unstoppable force."
"People in the rich countries would either have to accept lower wages to compete, or lose their jobs. But no matter"
" The backlash has swelled a wave of soul-searching among economists, one that had already begun to roll ashore with the financial crisis. How did they fail to foresee the repercussions?"
Because they are stupid with no imagination.

" Rodrik suggested that the process of globalisation should shoulder more of the blame. It was, in particular, the competition between workers in developing and developed countries that helped drive down wages and job security for workers in developed countries. Over and over, they would be held hostage to the possibility that their business would up and leave, in order to find cheap labour in other parts of the world;"
" Rodrik foresaw that the cost of greater “economic integration” would be greater “social disintegration”
"Activists were intent on showing a much darker picture, revealing how the record of globalisation consisted mostly of farmers pushed off their land and the rampant proliferation of sweatshops. "

"In Summers’s recent writings, this sombre conclusion has often been paired with a surprising political goal: advocating for a “responsible nationalism”. Now he argues that politicians must recognise that “the basic responsibility of government is to maximise the welfare of citizens, not to pursue some abstract concept of the global good”.

"John Maynard Keynes among them – who had previously regarded departures from free trade as “an imbecility and an outrage” began to lose their religion. “The decadent international but individualistic capitalism, in the hands of which we found ourselves after the war, is not a success,” Keynes found himself writing in 1933. “It is not intelligent, it is not beautiful, it is not just, it is not virtuous – and it doesn’t deliver the goods. In short, we dislike it, and we are beginning to despise it.”
"In his 2011 book The Globalization Paradox, Rodrik concluded that “we cannot simultaneously pursue democracy, national determination, and economic globalisation.”

"Statistics from Global Inequality, a 2016 book by the development economist Branko Milanović, indicate that in relative terms the greatest benefits of globalisation have accrued to a rising “emerging middle class”, based preponderantly in China. But the cons are there, too: in absolute terms, the largest gains have gone to what is commonly called “the 1%” – half of whom are based in the US. Economist Richard Baldwin has shown in his recent book, The Great Convergence, that nearly all of the gains from globalisation have been concentrated in six countries."

" what he calls “premature deindustrialisation”. In the past, the simplest model of globalisation suggested that rich countries would gradually become “service economies”, while emerging economies picked up the industrial burden. Yet recent statistics show the world as a whole is deindustrialising. Countries that one would have expected to have more industrial potential are going through the stages of automation more quickly than previously developed countries did"
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...wept-the-world

[Danny B]

public pensions, Fulford, Kunstler

7/15 Trump won’t kill America, bitcoin will – Hacker Noon
7/15 Bitcoin to be taxed like gold in India – Coin Telegraph
7/15 Bitcoin retail acceptance is shrinking – Investopedia
7/15 Dispute could mean financial panic in bitcoin – CNBC
7/15 Major Swiss online bank unleashes bitcoin – Coin Telegraph
Bitcoin is a hot potato.

7/15 JPMorgan just had the most profitable year in the history of banking – Bloomberg
7/15 Social Security unfunded liabilities rise to $12.5 trillion – Washington Examiner
I wonder if there could be a connection?

"public pensions are really about $8 trillion underfunded, as opposed to the $3-$5 trillion that you frequently see"
"In short, tweak one simple number and, like magic, your whole funding crisis "disappears."
"The teachers and state employees systems dropped their rates of return to 7 percent, while the plans for judges and general assembly members cut their rates to 6.75 percent.
All four had negative investment returns in the 2016 budget year"
"For those who missed, below is a post in which we explained why Illinois' pensions could run out of money in as little as 4 years."
"Of course, that strategy ceases to work when the pensions actually run out of cash...which could happen sooner than you think...and when it does, America's retirees will suddenly find themselves about $5 trillion poorer than they thought they were."
Illinois "Budget Deal" Is Likely The Death Knell For The State's $130 Billion Underfunded Pensions | Zero Hedge

" And with 87 percent of the county budget going to public health and public safety, " "We need you to cut 1,000, basically 1,000 positions from your (sheriff)office of 6,000."
Cook County to cut 1,100 jobs due to soda tax delay | abc7chicago.com
You thought Chicago was dangerous before,,, what next? Cut the cops but, don't cut welfare.

And then, there is Fulford, Benjamin Fulford: Clean up of Khazarian filth continues in US, Japan and elsewhere » The Event Chronicle
If Fulford doesn't give you a case of the shivers, there is always James Howard Kunstler. He has a perspective that is as bleak as the far side of the moon.
"Progress behind progressive politics in the industrial era has reached a dead end. The world is clearly not becoming a better place, but rather reeling into disorder and ecological crisis"
" The middle class has been left economically shipwrecked by the promises of globalism. The pledge of a happy retirement dissolves as the pension funds roll over and die. And the supposed paragon of enlightened American governance morphs into a sinister and corrupt Deep State of oligarchical corruption."
"The practical problems of economy approach an event horizon of energy scarcity, runaway debt from trying to mitigate it, and eventual collapse of our day-to-day hyper-complex economic arrangements."
Energy scarcity in the lower 48 and much of Europe was papered-over with the printing press. When this is no longer possible, there will be a huge difference between the price of oil and the current price at the pump. The oil barons have refused to bring Alaskan oil on-line.

"The quandaries of “minority” America have resolved in the simple superstitious idea that demonic forces of “white male privilege” and ubiquitous, implacable misogynistic racism are entirely responsible for the woes and sorrows of the world, and the failure of progress in particular."

Holy Hell - Kunstler

The corporatocracy thought it would be a good idea to cut tariffs and wages so that they would raise their margins. Globalism went full-steam ahead. BS economics from academia coupled with regulatory capture was the perfect brew to drive down wages, taxes and tariffs. China has more EXCESS steel capacity than the entire steel capacity of America and Europe. All manufacturing concentrated in just a very few places. Globalism concentrated wealth in the 1% and the Chinese middle class. The rest of the world was left with no jobs and no discretionary spending. Survival spending was maintained by GOV welfare programs.
Survival spending financed by sovereign governments increasing their debt will reach a breaking point.
The CBs worldwide tried to pump in enough liquidity worldwide that, at least part of the liquidity would flow into GOV bonds. All this liquidity and NONE of it flows into wages.
We need more jobs or fewer people. VHEMT is on the job, VHEMT

[Danny B]

The anatomy of pump & dump

You deposit your money with the bankers. They multiply it many times over and gamble with it. They force price inflation which is injurious to wage earners. When your wages won't carry the entire debt burden, the bankers stand to lose from default. The TARP money given to the bankers was to allow them to continue to scam you rather than going bankrupt. The bankers create the debt principle but, NOT the interest burden. Eventually, the lower loop is going to run out of money. The Central Bank recharges the commercial banks so that they can always outlast the wage earner.

"We always thought that bankers add to their wealth by the interest they earn on their loans. We knew they created a deposits for us in exchange for our obligation to pay back to them afterwards the amount of that loan, plus interest. Such "lending," we all understand, is where the economy gets its money supply. The new deposit gives the economy new purchasing power and there is that much more money in the economy for people to bid for goods and services in the market economy. The subsequent payments -- "debt servicing" of course then reduces the amount of purchasing power; the principal goes back to the bank as a collected receivable, canceling out the liability created for the bank when they created the deposit for the borrower. BUT WHAT OF THE INTEREST? Certainly it is the bankers' primary source of income, but, and here is the breakthrough discovery, the interest earned is not the primary way the biggest bankers increase their wealth. Their income is interest, but their mainstay and reliance is upon, keeping those interest earnings from returning to the real economy, because when the amount of the deposit is returned to the banks plus the compound interest -- the result on the entire economy is severe deflation -- and when there is deflation, all of the bonds and idle cash balances (unspent interest earnings) increase in value -- because when there is less money in the economy everything is cheaper -- residential properties forced on the market by homebuyer default, businesses forced on the market because of fall in consumer demand, public utilities forced on the market because tax revenues of government are lower than planned -- all due to money destroyed by repayment of principal plus interest earnings kept from returning to circulation by bankers who gain in wealth, not from interest earned on their loans, but from deflation caused by withholding the interest we debtors have paid on loans. The bankers, don't want to earn interest, they want to take over the real property -- land and other assets, that working people have created and developed. Do the bankers really play this game, of get rich through deflation which they cause by not returning interest to the economy as consumers and investors? Yes. But what about periods of inflation, when bankers provide easy money for an economic boom? Yes, bankers do sometimes give the people easy money -- inflation -- but those times play a part in the wealth-by-deflation-windfall. Inflation merely rewinds the machine for another round of wealth-by-deflation.

The business cycle is caused by this game being played.
1. Easy money to encourage production. But as times are good, everyhone wants to borrowe money and the banks choose to increase interest rates -- saying they do so because of inflation -- but really they do so because they need those higher rates to end the boom when they want the boom ended. Note: If they were really charging competitive interest rates, interest rates would be lower in a boom because the risk of business failure by the borrower or job loss or insufficient tax revenue is so much smaller.
2. The banks call in loans and stop issuing loans when they want the inflationary boom to turn to deflationary hard times -- less loans, harder to get loans, businesses fail or downsize, letting go employees or cutting wages or hours -- less money means fewer sales -- and that means budgets are busted and there are defaults and foreclosures and bankruptcies -- and that is good for the bankers sitting on their unspent interest earnings -- because all of the foreclosed housing units, bankrupted and distressed businesses and distress sale public utilites come on the market and are bought up cheap. And when they have harvested with deflation what they sowed with easy money, they are ready to rewind their mechanism again with another period of easy money.

The economist Irving Fisher rightly expounded his debt-deflation theory of economic depressions, but he could not see who the depression got started. Now you know. It is a game of wealth making through deflation harvesting of an economy previously built by a boom.
And that is my theory in its first expositon. I know it is right.
I hope you will share it with others. I hope I live to write a clearer and more thorough exposition -- but I tell you all of the elements are here. Study it. Think about it. Test it against current economic thinking. You will see I am right. It will be obvious to you.
Sincerely,"
Dick Eastman

So, it is advantageous for the bankers to bring crashing deflation. At regular intervals, they must convert their thin-air money into tangible assets. OK, so the upper loop crashes the lower loop to scoop up all the tangible assets and let the 90% die where they lay.
There is one small problem. Wages have crashed. Velocity of money has crashed. Actual productivity has crashed. The tax base has crashed.
The bankers have managed to crash sovereign government. The negative fallout from globalization has brought crashing deflation to the lower loop.
The banks were bailed out by the FED. This time around, there will be nobody who can bail out the government.
Can the banks just seize the property of GOV? They dream of owning all infrastructure.