Economic pressures

[Danny B]

Attracting capital to tax havens

Armstrong, "There are already 13 nations in default of their national debts. If interest rates go up 1%, we will see another almost 30 join the default list. Take interest rates up 2.5%, and the list will soar to probably 100 nations in default.

The first crack in the world monetary system will ONLY be caused by a strong dollar – not a weaker one. First, you get the dollar rally, then you get the dollar collapse. So keep this in mind. If you buy gold and then see a decline, will you panic and sell the bottom, which is typical? That becomes the game.

There are other places to have dollar accounts. But the USA is not part of the reporting system back to Europe. Most other places are. The USA has become the new tax haven for the world – not American unfortunately."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/m...ld-v-dollar-3/
America created FACTA where all other States must report the bank accounts back to American tax authorities. At the same time, America does NOT report foreign earnings to overseas tax authorities. This makes America a tax haven. The rise of the dollar will blow up many $trillions of dollar-denominated debt.

Here is an interesting graph of interest rates, https://s3.amazonaws.com/cm-us-stand...ury+yields.png
As interest rates rise, the defaults kick in. Then, the contagion kicks in.

[Danny B]

Winding down,,, interest expenses,,, tax cuts

In summer of 2005, I ended up with a lot of time on my hands. Reading on the net about our financial situation / future, I came to the conclusion that America was going to crash relatively soon. I stocked up on grains & stuff and knuckled down to a job
Like MANY other would be preppers and prognosticators, I did an unrealistic time compression. After a few years of reading, I concluded that there would be some years before thins got really bad. Living in L.A. I wanted to know when the next big earthquake would be. That would definitely upset my plans. There are only 4 roads into L.A. and all of them have high bridges on them. I was here for the '71 San Fernando earthquake and , it was a real mess.
I left the day before the Northridge Quake but, came back the same day. Again, a real mess.
Since a big earthquake would really mess up my plans, I made a trip to Scotland on the off chance that Swein Macdonald, the highland seer could tell me when the big one would hit. Swein was quite famous for calling the London Daily Mail and telling them that an oil tanker was going to run aground in Scotland. 10? days later, it did just that. I paid my 15 quid and listened to him. Must have been an off-day.
While visiting Viewhill, Ardgay, Sutherland, I went to the pub and talked to the men at the bar. They told me that Swein was nothing compared to his father. He could find anything or anybody that was lost, etc. It was very interesting to consider that second-sight could be inherited.

As the years go by, we tend to think that the financial problems will eventually blow over. Nothing has happened yet. This is only true if you happen to still have a job and your health. What is approaching is a sovereign debt default. Pox Americana is at war with other central banks, most notable the European Central Bank. Because the eurozone project was so ill-conceived, the Euro currency is ripe for a good, old stab-in-the-back.
The EU banks report about $1trillion in non-performing loans.
"In other words, the ECB will assume that the environment which started in 2016 with the ECB's launch of its corporate QE, and which pushed yields and spreads to record low levels, will persist indefinitely, even as the ECB itself also admits it will soon start tightening financial conditions, resulting in chaos in the bond market, a surge in defaults and hundreds of billions in more NPLs."
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...king-time-bomb
The BOJ and ECB continue to talk tightening. I haven't seen much.
Here are some comments from the article.
The ECB Reserve Requirement is 1%.
This means that if Europe hits an iceberg, then 99% of the passengers are going for a swim.

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/explainers...reserve_req.e…

The 800lb gorilla in the room is the squillions in QE junk bonds Draghi has acquired at taxpayer expense.
When the SHTF, he'll be hanging from a lamp post.

...the squillions in QE junk bonds...

Funny how few people, even among those who pay attention to such matters, actually realize that this is the problem, and it's utterly insurmountable. I continue to laugh at the financial gurus screaming "Oh noes!!! It's the big one!!!" because it isn't time yet. However, the question is most definitely when, not if.

And folks wonder what Brexit is all about! The perpetual fratricide in Europe is just being played out in yet another arena.
Now go back to putting money into your 401K asap......
ROTFLMAO (rolling on the floor laughing my a** off).
It isn't 'your' 401k or 'your' money. It's the bank's money and you are merely a very junior and unimportant unsecured creditor.
They haven't for the past decade. One would think that the loan loss ratio would have fallen significantly in the 10 years since the financial crisis and that the loss provision would increase but it hasn't.

https://thistimeitisdifferent.com/eu...-far-from-over
In the US, banks had a delinquency rate of 7.5% in 2009, at the end of March 2018 it is 1.82% across all banks in the US across all products. And 80% of the loss has already been provisioned.
https://thistimeitisdifferent.com/us-bank-debt-apr-2018
The above it true. Loan losses in American banks are VERY low because all the bad loans were stuffed into Freddie and Fanny. So, American banks will survive but, Freddie and Fanny will go up Like Krakatoa.

Here is Paul Craig Roberts to give you some kind of feeling for timing. I'll print excerpts but, you should read the whole thing.
"In the wee hours this AM, the yield on the 10-year treasury note hit 2.993%. That's close enough for gubermint work to say that the big 3.00% inflection point has now been tripped. And it means, in turn, that the end days of the Bubble Finance era have well and truly commenced."
"there has been no acceleration in the main street economy---just the rigor mortis spasms of a stock market that has been endlessly juiced with cheap debt."
"Thus, since the pre-crisis peak in Q3 2007 nonfinancial corporate sector value added is up by 34%, but corporate debt securities outstanding have risen by 85%; and the overwhelming share of that massive debt increase was used to fund financial engineering, not productive assets and future earnings growth."
"during the past 10 years, net value added generated by US nonfinancial corporations rose by just $2 trillion (from $6.1 trillion to $8.1 trillion per annum), whereas corporate debt rose by nearly $3 trillion (from $3.3 trillion to $6.1 trillion)"
"That's because the share shrinking effect of stock buybacks and largely cash M&A deals is going to dramatically abate, while interest expense per share is fixing to soar.

On the first point, there were 264 billion S&P 500 (ex-financials) shares outstanding at the pre-crisis peak in 2007 compared to only 239 billion or 10% less at the end of 2017. Accordingly, upwards of one-third of the gain in per share earnings during the last decade was owing to share shrinkage, not aggregate profits growth"
"Secondly, even if the 10-year UST rate settles at only 3.75% and the rest of the yield curve rises accordingly, it will have the effect of increasing pre-tax interest expense for the S&P 500 by about $44 per share; and thanks to the new 21% tax rate, that will show up as a $35 per share hit to EPS."

"And we have no doubt that the stock option obsessed occupants of the corporate C-suites will again make haste to throw labor, inventories and fixed assets overboard with malice aforethought once the market breaks, and earnings are hit with the headwinds of rising interest expense and FX impacts.

To be sure, the usual suspects are again out in force on bubblevision offering a way out. Their response to today's 3.00% moment of clarity is that the Fed is on the verge of making a great "mistake", and that Powell and his Posse will see the error of their ways before it is too late."

"Here is just one example of why the Keynesian consensus at the Fed and on Wall Street is missing the forest for the trees. To wit, we have now completed a full-10 year span since the Q4 2007 pre-crisis peak, and real GDP growth has averaged a mere 1.43% per annum gain.

But that's not the half of it. The cumulative gain over that 10-year period amounts to 15.3%, but that was accompanied by a mere 0.5% gain in industrial production, and a 5% drop in the output of manufactured goods.

What saved the day for even the tepid gains in real GDP was soaring increases in government transfer payments and health care spending---with the latter growing by 29% in real terms over the same period."
"So after the deficit broke toward 10% of GDP in the fall of 1981, he (Reagan) reluctantly signed three consecutive tax increase bills in 1982-1984 that saved the day by recouping 40% of the revenue lost in his treasured tax cut of 1981."
Contra Corner » The Delusions of MAGA And The Return Of Honest Bond Yields, Part 4
EVERY segment of the American economy is flat in it's back. Tax increases at this point would just add poison.

[Danny B]

Time runs short, russia buys even more gold

Surging oil prices to enrich sovereign wealth funds: JPM
Benefits will fall more to stocks than bonds, euro than dollar
Right, all the oil producers are going to jump into the stock and bond markets.
4/24 Russia buys 300,000 ounces of gold in March – GoldCore
This is from Russia Today. I'm sure that they are going to jump into stocks.
https://www.rt.com/business/424854-m...sh-correction/
Nobody is going to buy the Euro. Even Draghi has admitted that growth has stopped, https://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/...economy-cooked
Russia produces 240 tons of gold per year. They still went out and bought 10 tons more.

[Danny B]

Shoot the politicians first

All quiet with the same old problems getting a bit bigger.
"According to the Federal Reserve, pensions — public and private combined — were roughly 27% underfunded as of last year."
Daily Reckoning contributor Charles Hugh Smith:
" Corrupt politicos promised the moon to public employees, and now the fiscal chickens of insolvency are coming home to roost."

As the late Canadian Prime Minister Mackenzie King styled it:
“The politician’s promises of yesterday are the taxes of today.”
Zero Hedge’s pseudonymous Tyler Durden:
Funds collected from taxpaying Americans will be spent to satisfy the ridiculous retirement promises and obligations made over the past few decades, and while the immediate recipients of the funds, i.e., those looking at near-term retirement, will be made whole, everyone else, i.e., taxpayers, will lose."
"Politicians promise… taxpayers pay."
https://dailyreckoning.com/americas-...illion-crisis/

Politicians make promises that they will never have to pay for personally.
Politicians start wars that they will never personally have to fight.
With no risk and no accountability, what else do you expect?

So, we have hit a peak and, there is nowhere to go except down.
https://www.financialsense.com/sites...018/0419/1.png

Dollar bonds, https://i0.wp.com/dollarcollapse.com...00%2C376&ssl=1
You can see why a stronger dollar will wipe this out.
https://dollarcollapse.com/getting-t...ut-everywhere/

4/25 China prepares to mass produce hypersonic vehicles – Zero Hedge This is great news. M.A.D. without nukes. Nothing can be protected. This brings us that much closer to peace. Even the S-300 could bring peace.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...a-mulls-arming

[Danny B]

Hang the politicians next to the bankers

Venezuela had a great economy when oil was very high. They should have tailored their spending to their income. Oil prices fell and they continued to spend. How much do they spend?
"The government insists education remains a priority and says that 75 percent of the national budget goes to the social sector."
https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Amer...y-in-Venezuela
Armstrong said that it would all blow when the dollar got too strong.
" The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.4 percent to the highest in almost 15 weeks.
The euro declined 0.5 percent to $1.2172, the weakest in almost 15 weeks.
The British pound decreased 0.3 percent to $1.3933, touching the the weakest level in almost six weeks.
The Japanese yen dipped 0.5 percent to 109.34 per dollar, after hitting the weakest in 11 weeks with its sixth straight decline. "

Armstrong writes with much trepidation about common, old stories of bankers hanging from lamp posts. It will eventually come out that the worst screwing that Americans received was when congress overturned the Glass-Steagal act. The graham-leachy act handed all your money over to the bankers to gamble with. Here is the vote on the act.
https://www.senate.gov/legislative/L...ote=00354#name
This calls for 90 more lamp posts. They certainly were enthusiastic about giving away YOUR money.

Everybody is looking at the 10 year bonds. Apparently, the 2 year bonds are in even more trouble.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...an-a-3-10-year
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yge311sFhC8

[Danny B]

Fitts and the entrenched corruption

Socialism is free money for the poor and fascism is free money for the rich. Since many of the poor actually do productive work, free money tends to actually reduce economic activity. Finland has just abandoned their experiment with passing out a basic income. If the people in the lower loop stop working, everything comes to a stop in the upper loop.

The upper loop of parasites must continually invent ways to siphon off the wealth of the actual producers. There is no such thing as an honest parasite so, the wealth must be stolen outright or, through corruption. The upper loop works full time to create all-pervasive corruption. Most of this corruption is hidden away in State documents, rather than out in the open.

We all know that the illegal drug industry has been vertically integrated by the bankers. The State helps out by using the CIA and military to protect drug crops. When the Taliban stopped the growing of opiate poppies in Afghanistan, the U.S. invaded within a few months.
What about the other end of the equation? We spend more money per prisoner than we do per pupil. Law enforcement and the prison/court system is extremely expensive.

Catherine Austin Fitts developed software to bring ALL of this corruption out in the open. I hope that you can read this article in it's entirety.
https://dillonreadandco.com/hamilton-securities-group/
I found it linked to another article.
https://jonrappoport.wordpress.com/2...s-are-tanking/

[Danny B]

The party is quickly winding down

In other news, investor sentiment has turned dark. Previously, every dip was bought by the FED and investors were encouraged to pile in on top. The FED always has your back. Earnings are weak. Stocks have only risen because of free money pumped into buybacks. People like Stockman have clearly pointed out that all of this is fake. The minute that the FED quits buying, investors (gamblers) know that the party is over.
https://dailyreckoning.com/dip-buys-gone/

Intravenous Viagra in the stock market has come to an end and everybody is assessing the situation.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...estors-on-edge

"Plot 50 years of official national debt on a log scale. The trend is unmistakable. National debt has increased exponentially 8% – 9% per year. National debt doubles every eight to nine years."
There are a LOT of parasites to be nourished.
https://deviantinvestor.com/9972/deb...ions-part-one/
So, the FED insists on 2% per year currency inflation. But, the parasite load grows much faster than 2%. They suck up to the State and use regulatory capture to ensure that the blood keeps flowing. 8% – 9% per year. has become problematic.

4/26 Momo massacre – “follow-leader” strategy suffers outflows – Zero Hedge
We don't want no stinking outflows.
4/26 Peter Schiff: why own US stocks? – Seeking Alpha
We don't want no stinking traitors.
4/25 CME Fedwatch has 48% chance of at least four hikes in 2018 – Mish The plan is to attract foreign capital with higher interest rates. Those same higher interest rates WILL wipe out most corporate and consumer and Gov debt.

4/26 Sprott’s Craig Hemke: The soaring dollar crushes the commodity rally – GATA
The crushing has only just begun.,
4/26 You’re not crazy for doubting establishment war narratives – Medium
You're both crazy and stupid to believe any of it.
4/26 Russia to send advanced anti-aircraft missiles to Syria – Zero Hedge
Israel says that sending good missiles is a prohibited red line.
Russia Starts Production Of S-400s for Turkey

‘Someone’ Is Jamming US Gunships Over Syria!
4/26 First drone warship joins navy; nearly every element classified – CNBC
Do not worry! I'm sure that the Russians can't possibly jam the drone ship.
4/24 Global solar PV installations to surpass 104GW in 2018 – Greentech Media
What about my oil wells?
4/26 Ex-Clinton ‘ethics’ aide resigns after taped tirade at cops – Zero Hedge
How can you say Clinton and ethics in the same sentence?
4/26 The great exodus out of America’s blue cities – Hill
I wonder why ???
https://reason.com/archives/2018/04/...-cars-innocent

4/26 Ethereum: stick a fork in it – Mish
4/25 Why bitcoin works – Medium
Blockchain, YES.... Crypto, No.

[Danny B]

Deutsche bank

The derivative book held by Deutsche Bank is larger that the gdp of Germany. Here are a few vids on the subject.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qXantrCrip4

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hwbJQpHYGTg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6GbR0ygQSkc

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P77X2xX5K8U

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_gOJ0u91dvI

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iG2kbg6wd_Q

I built a woodgas truck and, I built a propane engine from my Chevy truck because I believe that the default cascade will bring interruptions of the oil supply. We frack out light distillates that we export and, we import heavy oil. Our refineries are not set up to handle the light distillates. Pox Americana, under the influence of the zionists has been hard at work trying to control the whole world. The world is quite tired of being blown up and, is in the process of uniting against us. Energy for transportation is our weak spot.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a32nPhL5mEk
The economy is not in a good position to absorb any big shocks. The debacle with Deutsche bank will bring a real shock to confidence,,, not to mention the contagion from $80 trillion of failing derivatives. The counter-parties are spread throughout the system.

[Danny B]

10 year note,,,hunt for taxes to preserve socialism

U.S. Treasuries are the safest investment in the world. The 10 year note is the benchmark for all credit. ALL interest rates are compared to the 10 year note. But, as sovereign debt shoots to the moon, how can it be as safe as it was when America had very little debt.
4/27 BofA: 10-year Treasury “is no longer a safe asset” – Zero Hedge
You can well understand why Armstrong makes such a big deal about confidence.
4/27 Global pension gap to hit $400 trillion; US leads the way – Mish
YES, America FIRST.
4/27 Blain: “Millennials aren’t buying cars or homes because they are debt slaves” – ZH
They have an average net worth of minus $ 1900.

4/27 Debt-enabled asset bubbles on crash course with demographics – Juggling Dynamite
The debt bubble was created, in part, because of the falling birth rate.
4/27 US exports nearly all gold mine supply to Hong Kong – SRSRocco Report
It won't be long before we regret that.
4/26 US dollar soaring with eagles, what does it mean? – Technical Traders
It means mega-default in dollar-denominated debt.

4/27 Official: Israel will strike Tehran if Iran attacks Tel Aviv – Herald
If Iran breaks through enough to attack Tel Aviv, That will bring Old Testament biblical destruction to ALL of israel. Iran does NOT want to attack israel. They just want to be left alone. They do NOT want to surrender their land to propagate a "greater israel.
4/26 S Korea sparing no effort to make summit with Kim a success – WaPo
Well shoot, the 30,000 troops in S Korea can just go home.

4/26 Gold price increasingly influenced by declining dollar – GoldCore
4/26 Sprott’s Craig Hemke: The soaring dollar crushes the commodity rally – GATA
Make up your mind.

" This insane process of borrowing with no intention of paying off the debt is starting to explode. A simple 1% increase in interest rates will send budgets soaring. We have reached the point of no return in the Sovereign Debt Crisis."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...d-and-the-bad/
"The British have again canceled their currency up to the ten-pound notes. Try and spend a 10’er and you cannot. Go to a currency exchange and they will take it at a 20% discount. As for the coins, you can donate them to a charity who can exchange them but you can’t. This is why the US dollar is also the Reserve Currency – it has NEVER been canceled. Europe has always done this to prevent people from hoarding cash."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...-curtain-talk/

Did you ever wonder why America got rid of large denomination Notes? The State HATES personally held cash because it is a bearer bond that can not be diminished by the courts or bankers. You see why India did away with a large denomination Rupee note. The British are now monkeying with their currency. Logan airport has cash-sniffing dogs. The State really hates stores of wealth that it can't easily steal.
The tax man will leave no stone unturned.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...out-for-taxes/

Crash of wages.
Crash of consumption and productivity.
Crash of the tax base
Crash of socialism
Make no mistake. The crash of socialism for the poor was brought on by the crash of socialism for the rich. All the entrenched corruption permeating the bank/State is what bled dry the Treasury.

[Danny B]

Pox Americana,,, a lawless mad dog

France’s President Macron Says He Wants to Build “The New Syria” Together with the US
More Trump BS Exposed - US To Expand Military Presence In Syria – Mattis
Pox Americana and the deep State have made it very clear that they have zero respect for ANY law anywhere in the world.
Israeli Defence Minister Moshe Dayan: “Israel must be like a mad dog, too dangerous to bother.”
THIS is the mentality that the rest of the world must face. America is not far from a credit collapse. I expect that the rest of the world will help us along. Strauss & Howe wrote Generational Turnings. America is in the fourth turning. Russia and China are NOT. They are expanding and growing. America has 15 times the debt per capita as Russia. America has 10 times the GOV debt that Russia has.
Russia is by far the richest country in the world in natural resources, priced $75 trillion, much higher than the second place US with $45 trillion.

China is doing some things right. Neither of these 2 States is cursed under the control of bankers and zionists. Even little North Korea has something going for it.
Privately-held SRE Minerals on Wednesday announced the discovery in North Korea of what is believed to be the largest deposit of rare earth elements anywhere in the world. About $ 10 trillion.
The West will fall very hard. The East Will muddle through because they do NOT focus on supporting the upper loop at the expense of the lower loop.
Our refusal to leave Syria, no matter what the circumstances, will make it very clear to the R.O.W. that Pox Americana must be starved out if the world is to see peace.
The Top-Secret Cold War Plan to Keep Soviet Hands Off Middle Eastern Oil
Well, now they have all the oil and, we don't.

[Danny B]

Stockman, Amazon,,rising debt

Stockman,
1. police the planet via a massive Warfare State funded with borrowed money;
2. leave the $2.5 trillion Welfare State and its 110 million beneficiaries politically undisturbed on the theory that deficits don't matter;
3. Cut Taxes for the donors, the business lobbies and the affluent classes whenever they get the chance on the theory that tax cuts pay for themselves; and
4. Throw Spending Bones to farmers, small business, exporters, veterans, border control nativists and law and order conservatives to keep the rest of the GOP voters happy.
"Yes, American taxpayers surely deserve a Federal government that taxes less than 18.0% of GDP, which was the "current law" level for FY 2019 before the Christmas Eve bill reduced the take to 16.5%.

But even more so, they deserve one that spends well less than 21% of GDP today and upwards of 24% of GDP a few years down the road."
"However, the math got thrown into a cocked hat when the tax cut ballooned to double the intended size during a legislative bidding war in the summer of 1981---even as the initial spending cuts got stealthily restored by Congressional saboteurs in future years."
The article has a lot of good info.
Contra Corner » Yield Shock On Wall Street, Conservative Default In Washington

Stockman on amazon,
Last night Amazon reported a whopping 41% plunge in free cash flow for the March 2018 LTM period compared to prior year. Yet it was promptly rewarded by a $50 billion surge in market cap"
"A year ago Amazon's market cap towered at $425 billion---meaning that it was being valued at a downright frisky 47X free cash flow. But fast forward a year and we get $780 billion in the market cap column this morning and 146X for the free cash flow multiple."
"Already at the crack of dawn SunTrust was out with a $1900 price target---meaning an implied market cap of $970 billion and 180X on the free cash flow multiple."
"Fully 96% of Amazon's $5.0 billion of LTM operating income was accounted for by its cloud services business (AWS).

The e-Commerce juggernaut, by contrast, posted just $188 million of LTM operating income, which am0unts to, well, 0.1% of sales on a computational basis."
"meaning that there is $300 billion or even more of bottled air lodged in the implied $580 billion value of e-Commerce. "
GOOD article.
Contra Corner » Jumping The Great White Shark Of Bubble Finance
Keep in mind that the $300 billion in bottled air will eventually escape. Just the same, the pundits are forecasting hyperinflation. The upper loop has already been hyperinflated. THAT is where the air will leak out.

"But what happens when the economic pie is no longer expanding, yet the keepers of the system seem unable to turn off their own desires to grab more, more and yet more from that same pie?

That is where we find ourselves today. The economic oxygen is being sucked from the middle and lower classes and the social and political pressures are building"
"As we progress from here, the disparity between the haves and have-nots is only going to intensify, with debt (and our debt-based money system) being used as the primary weapon for controlling an increasingly dispossessed public."
https://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/...ire-approaches

"The ultimate goal of the new world order as an ideology is total centralization of economic and governmental power into the hands of a select and unaccountable bureaucracy made up of international financiers. This is governance according the the dictates of Plato’s Republic; a delusional fantasy world in which benevolent philosopher kings, supposedly smarter and more objective than the rest of us, rule from on high with scientific precision and wisdom. It is a world where administrators become gods."
How The Globalism Con Game Leads To A 'New World Order'

A pretty good article on currency wars, http://aheadoftheherd.com/Newsletter...-has-begun.pdf
Here is an EXCELLENT collection of the best charts in recent history. The sixth chart down shows a pretty good rise in wages.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/th...ors-2018-04-26
BUT, wages have been static to falling. How do we account for that?
"From 1978 to 2013, CEO compensation, inflation-adjusted, increased 937 percent, a rise more than double stock market growth and substantially greater than the painfully slow 10.2 percent growth in a typical worker’s compensation over the same period."
So, you can discount the wages for the average productive worker.

Peter Schiff, the perma-bear, https://www.rt.com/business/425291-p...-fed-mr-magoo/
'If trade stops, war starts,' warns Alibaba founder Jack Ma
Russia built a pipeline around the Ukraine because they were stealing gas. They are pissed off. https://www.rt.com/business/425191-r...nsit-conflict/
"I think the chances the U.S. experiences an imperial collapse similar to that of the USSR (or like any historically unmanageable and corrupt empire) has become increasingly likely. My view at this point is the U.S. and its global power position will be so dramatically altered in the years ahead, it’ll be almost unrecognizable by 2025, as a result of both economic decline and major geopolitical mistakes. "
https://russia-insider.com/en/russia...part-2/ri23252

[Danny B]

Notes and vids from Armstrong

When it comes to referencing history, NOBODY does it better than Armstrong and Socrates. Armstrong claims that we are in the final stages of a collapse of socialism. The Eurocrats make no bones about it. They Worship the idea of socialism. Maybe that is because the vast majority of politicians have NO job niche in the productive sector of the world. Here is an amazing article about Junker.
"We live in a very dangerous era for this is the collapse of Marxism and they will fight back with every ruthless means possible to save their theory of living off of other people’s money."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/a...-of-karl-marx/

America injected money into the upper loop. China injected money into the lower loop.
"Right now, China’s Debt to GDP stands at 250% mainly because to stimulate their economy, they actually lent money to people. The Western government bought their own bonds back to the “indirectly stimulate” the economy which never made it to the people."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...n-the-horizon/

"The Bank of England actually prints itself internally £1 million and £100 million pound notes. They are used only internally to back the paper currency issued by other banks such as the Bank of Scotland. "
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...million-notes/
So, they print paper money to back other paper money. There is no actual wealth backing anything.

Armstrong vids;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=67z6EE-As-I&t=148s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OW-hLpbc_Mg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xnvHZGTGu2g

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B1yf6iluOmM&t=88s

[Danny B]

Ignoring history,,, GSEs,,, late stages of a credit super-cycle.

" Fundamentally, bull market psychology rests on the basic premise that underlying fundamentals are sound - economic growth, earnings, inflation dynamics, new technologies, global trade, etc."
" wise person said that it's not true that we don't learn from history. It's that our learning is dominated by recent history. It becomes too easy to ignore everything beyond the past few years. Over a relatively short time horizon, the previous bust cycle becomes ancient history. What matters for the markets - especially as the cycle evolves to the speculative phase - is the here and now."
" Not only do we not learn from our mistakes, we instead seem to go out of our way to create bigger ones. This time much Bigger."

" Our government is amassing debt and obligations it will not repay. There's the $21 TN of rapidly expanding debt, along with tens of Trillions of future entitlements. And let's not forget the government-sponsored enterprises. The GSEs ended 2017 with a record $8.857 TN of securities outstanding (record assets of $6.826 TN, along with a record $2.125 TN of guaranteed MBS)."
Yep, the bad loans were stuffed in the GSEs.
https://creditbubblebulletin.blogspo...al-wisdom.html

4/28 Retiring broke? More than half of Americans are at risk of it happening – USA Today
4/28 A pension ‘Hurricane Harvey’ could spread across the US – Birch Gold
The cash in the SS fund was stolen for wars and replaced with non-negotiable Treasury notes. The war-mongers are increasingly shrill in their demands that the entitlements be cut back and, the military budget raised.

4/29 A tsunami of US debt is about to hit the markets – Gefira
4/29 Speculators have never been more short bonds — ever – Zero Hedge
You're watching the slow march of history being made.

Interesting,,, stages of a financial bubble.
STAGES OF A FINANCIAL BUBBLE - Where Are We Now? - munKNEE dot.com
4/29 Freddie Mac launches “3% down” mortgage with no income restrictions – Zero Hedge
This is pure socialism overlaid on pure financial stupidity.
4/29 Brexit failure looks more likely every day – Bloomberg
The Eurocrats (socialists) are absolutely frantic to kill Brexit. They know that Europe is fast collapsing and they want to lasso in the London banking centers.

B of A; US 10 Year Treasury Notes Are Junk Bonds | Politics
beforeitsnews.com/.../b-of-a-us-10-year-treasury-notes-are-junk-bonds-2998610.html
Translation, Take your money out of GOV bonds and, stuff it in our banks.

[Danny B]

Printing money to make people happy,, Jim Willie,,,

Central bank governor Gideon Gono was reported to have moved into his new 112-room mansion on the outskirts of Harare. The new residence was reported to feature an art gallery, a billiard room, a swimming pool with three islands, and four helipads.
He runs the Central bank of Zimbabwe. He is the one who printed the famous $5 trillion notes.
Nhalan Nene of South Africa said that he will force the reserve bank to print more money and, give it to the poor.
‘We will print more money and give it to the unemployed to end poverty in South Africa’, Says new minister of Finance – News Updates South Africa

It just never works out to print money that is not connected to labor or wealth creation. This is South Africa's gold production. The employment graph looks about the same.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...Production.png

4/30 Fight for deposits erupts among banks, with winners and losers – Wolf Street
I'm going to copy the entire text of the 2 latest summations from Jim Willie.

April 21st: topics covered the most significant financial event in a generation, the launch of the Gold-Oil-RMB futures contract in Shanghai China, the gradual move toward Saudis selling oil in RMB terms,
Saudi is going broke. They were forced to sell off stakes in ARAMCO, the State oil company. It was way over-priced because they lie about their reserves. The Chinese came along an offered a good price that nobody else was willing to pay. Remember that China has to get rid of treasury notes by buying stuff. China now has leverage to force Saudi to sell in Yuan

the Chinese investment of RMB inside the Saudi Economy in its development, the path of the Chinese Yuan and valuation issues with expectations of eventual gold linkage with the Yuan currency, the Chinese march away from the USD Sphere with Belt & Road Initiative projects worth $8 trillion outside the USD framework coupled with non-USD platforms like the AIIBank, the Russian vulnerable situation with their Ruble currency easily fortified by gold huge reserves,

21 years ago, South Korea was close to bankruptcy. The State asked people to donate their gold to save the country. 8 tons were collected in just the first week. This shows just how important gold is for the stability of a currency.
the potential launch of a Russian gold-backed crypto money, the potential of a Gold Trade Note with a 1000 ton placement of gold, along with more discussion of personal investments in silver bars,
Both China and Germany have been on a silver standard in recent history.

and the Eurasian Trade Zone establishment and development which goes contrary to the George Orwell futuristic view (not in the US press), with conclusion that the Shanghai GOR futures being the death knell for the Petro-Dollar and the Saudi oil sales in RMB terms being the dagger in the Petro-Dollar’s heart

https://youtu.be/N3S1PBKOdvs
“Longstanding Chinese War: Intrigue & Betrayal”

The trade war with China has roots going back at least to the 1990 decade. It has been financial in nature in the past, only recently in trade & commerce. Note the tungsten laced gold bars sent to Hong Kong banks. Note the Hong Kong independence with FDI investment promised to China. Note the US gold lease with China, reneged upon in 2005. Note the hidden unravelling of the Vatican lord.
No idea of the true story of Vatican gold. Everybody agreed to send all the gold to Switzerland first before it went to China or Hong Kong. The Swiss were entrusted with getting the tungsten out of the system.

Note the Chinese property confiscations, seen in JPMorgan HQ. Note the Chinese dumping of Fannie Mae bonds, beginning in 2005. Note the quick consequence of the Lehman failure and subprime bond crisis. Note the Chinese dumping long-term USTreasurys. Note the construction of the vast array of non-USD platforms and channels. Note the death knell for the Petro-Dollar. Witness the gradual emergence of the Gold Standard, arising from the East.

Longstanding Chinese War: Intrigue And Betrayal
China buys up everything in sight, using U.S. treasuries. The West rolls all of their money into bonds and derivatives and, other non-tangible vehicles. China buys tangibles. Russia already has enormous tangible wealth and doesn't need to buy anything.

Armstrong, " Debt relief of 50% is needed on the entire (EU)national debt – not just the loans since 2010."
There will be no saving the EU. There is almost no possibility of the investors accepting a 50% haircut. Even if they did, the credit default swaps would kick in. Even a "clean" 50% haircut won't save them because the interest burden would just keep growing. The hunt for taxes to pay the State and banks just causes more economic deflation. As long as the money is stuck in the upper loop, it has NO value to the economy.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...e-debt-crisis/
Socialism gives resources to the poor based on NEED. Capitalism gives money to the poor based on work. Crony capitalism gives money to the rich based on influence. It is only pure capitalism that avoids high inflation of the money supply. Only capitalism provides the motivation for work to be performed. With the parasites in control, actual productivity always seems to diminish. They starve up out to keep us working so, we have fewer offspring.

[Danny B]

PPT, ESF,,, RISING debt,,, RISING energy

The Fed caused 93% of the entire stock market's move since 2008: Analysis yahoo Finance 2016
The stock market is an indicator of economic activity, not the economic activity in itself. The economy wouldn't budge on it's downward march so, they messed with the indicators.
The same is true for bonds. The FED was buying up all the slack. They claim that they have stopped. What about other groups? There is the ESF.

"Is it possible that the ESF, located conveniently at the nexus between US monetary policy, foreign policy and last but not least, a promoter of the interests of the US military-industrial complex,"
"officially in charge of defending the dollar, the ESF is the government agency which controls the New York Fed, runs the CIA's black budget, and is the architect of the world's monetary system (IMF, World Bank, etc). ESF financing (through the OSS and then the CIA) built up the worldwide propaganda network which has so badly distorted history today (including erasing awareness of its existence from popular consciousness). It has been directly involved in virtually every major US fraud/scandal since its creation in 1934: the London gold pool, the Kennedy assassinations, Iran-Contra, CIA drug trafficking, "
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/prese...rotection-team

Then, there is the PPT.
The Working Group consists of:

The Secretary of the Treasury, or his or her designee (as Chairperson of the Working Group);
The Chairperson of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, or his or her designee;
The Chairperson of the Securities and Exchange Commission, or his or her designee; and
The Chairperson of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, or his or her designee.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Workin...ancial_Markets

All of this matters when the State wants money. How much money does the State want?
NOTES;
The U.S. Just Borrowed $488 Billion, a Record High for the First Quarter
U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said he’s unconcerned about the bond market’s ability to absorb rising government debt
Ability, yes,,,, desire,,, well, maybe.
Treasury said net borrowing totalled $488 billion from January through March, a record for that period and about $47 billion more than it had previously estimated
Who did the estimation?
https://ei.marketwatch.com/Multimedi...7-ac162d7bc1f7

The U.S.’s need to issue more Treasuries is expected to grow as the fiscal picture deteriorates.
The Treasury said Monday that tax changes are “poised to underpin near-term consumption and investment” and “the stage is set for a pick-up in growth over the near term.”
There is no growth in the lower loop so, they print more and more.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...quarter-record
Investors are getting more comfortable with the idea of four interest rate hikes this year, "
Comfortable, huh? Interest rate hikes will blow out all the debt markets.
"Think in terms of higher consumer and producer price readings coupled with surging oil prices and a falling dollar,"
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/30/the-...may-ensue.html

The upper loop is over-stuffed with money. The vast majority of people are under-stuffed with money. Look at the price of gold. Gold has no price. It's value and demand varies very little over time. It's "price" is pretty constant. So, if you look at the price of gold, you are looking at the value of the currency. The CBs have all printed in unison cheapening all currencies at once so that no currency is seen as a haven from over-printing. The price of gold must be suppressed so that currency doesn't look quite as bad.
So, they drive down the value of the currency. What about oil? When will a "falling " currency be reflected in the price of oil? Paul Volker (FED head) raised interest rates to about 22% and the economy survived. Today, that would be instant suicide.
The same is true for the price of oil. The dollar goes down but, the price of oil remains subdued. How much longer can that go on? Oil and gold tend to move together.
Charles Maxwell, a veteran energy analyst (since 1957), is now predicting oil prices will climb to $300 a barrel in 2020,

"From a price in the $40 range a mere six months ago, we’re now into the $70s per barrel and higher prices are forecast."
"Rising energy costs are a type of inflation that we saw in the mid-2000s, during the previous runup to oil at over $130 per barrel in 2008"
That didn't work out so well, did it?
https://dailyreckoning.com/seven-pillars-gold/

Armstrong, " We simply have to let it burn down to the ground and start from scratch."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...ee-healthcare/