Economic pressures

[Danny B]

If the party is over, will they turn out the lights?

Alex Jones says that the globalists will attack Trump with economic collapse; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AJp6GygI92Y&t=264s
"Greenspan Foresees 5% Interest Rates" COOOOOL but, he doesn't mention;
Not a mention of the $trillions in debt that will blow up.
Not a mention that housing sector will crater.
Not a mention that Federal Reserve will be seriously underwater on assets held.
Not a mention that the bankster refinance business will blow up.
No mention; double today’s mortgage rates and see what happens to Housing prices/values. 90% of people with a mortgage will be 25%-50% under-water.

Total Receipts: Up by Less Than 1 Percent in Fiscal Year 2016
Total Outlays: Up by About 5 Percent in Fiscal Year 2016
“It’s a problem, as in going from where we are now to 4 or 5 percent. There’s a whole structure of adjustments which have taken place, basically since 2008, which have to be unwound, and that’s not going to be done without a problem.”
https://mishtalk.com/2016/11/08/gree...nterest-rates/
Greenspan said "problem' what he meant to say was collapse and revolution
So the bankers got an 8 year bout of currency inflation that just happened to coincide with the term of the bum they put in the White House.
The next bum in line turned out to be such a criminal that NOBODY could stomach her. Will the bankers freeze credit to provoke a collapse?

11/09 China’s debt bubble threatens global growth as debt to GDP nears 300% – ValueWalk NOT by accident.
11/08 Yuan heads toward six-year low as capital outflows spur weakness – Bloomberg Yep,, capital outflows,,, they're buying up everything that they can.

[Danny B]

The banker plan to neutralize Trump

" it would only take a 100 basis point rise in Treasury bond yields to trigger the worst price decline in bonds since the 1981 bond market crash."
"a violent move starting around the time of the Trump election was guaranteed after midnight"
"which in turn, have seen their biggest absolute jump in yields since the Taper Tantrum in 2013"
"If this is indeed how China plans on "celebrating" the Trump presidency, namely by liquidating billions in US Treasurys on a daily basis.....
China Is Suddenly Dumping Treasuries | Zero Hedge

James Dale Davidson, "I would not be surprised to see the Federal Reserve raise interest rates to underline their bogus theory that the economy is strong. Soon thereafter, however, a recession will be declared. The establishment will try to ring-fence Trump and make him the scapegoat for the inevitable decline of the economy. "
Trump the Collapse With Gold
The 2 writers quoted in this article have a very good track record of being correct.

[Danny B]

The long game

The long game is; the bankers trying to regain control. BUT, these are Western bankers. The East has no plan to be subservient to the West. So, while the West plans to rule the world, the East will close ranks against the West. If for no other reason, they will do it for survival and independence. It remains to be seen if the West can outmanouver the East.

"The bottom line is, Trump is on the way to the White House because the elites WANT HIM THERE. Now, many liberty proponents, currently in a state of elation, will either ignore or dismiss the primary reason why I was able to predict the Brexit and a Trump win. These will probably be some of the same people that were arguing with me only weeks ago that the elites would NEVER allow Trump in office."
This IS going to happen. The elites play the long game"
Is this strictly the game of Western elites OR everybody?
"He Won Because The Elites Want Him There, The Global Economy Will Collapse" | Zero Hedge

Democracy always morphs into socialism and always breaks the bank. That is why America was founded as a democratic republic. We have morphed into a socialist State and the bank is definitely broken. The Marxists advocate that GOV tax the beans out of everybody to hire more and more people into GOV. That way, everybody approves of GOV. The problem comes in when you can no longer pay all those people who depend on a GOV salary. You print more and more money until your trading partners don't want your currency any more.
What happens when the State can no longer function as the "firewall" between the non-producers and the cold, hard world of Darwinian pressures?
The self-appointed Western elites must drag the whole world into socialism to avoid having their western currencies shunned in the global market.
Socialism means; A few work and the rest sit on their A$$ The East will never want to work while the West sits on it's collective A$$.

The Western PTB may very well have a plan to rule-run the world but, I don't believe that R.O.W. will go along with it.
49% of Americans pay no income tax. 51% of Americans depend on GOV for a paycheck. The PTB may very well crash the system and hope to regain control many years later. I doubt that this will work. Jim Rickards preached for may years that the SDR would be the new "world money". He is now resigned to the fact that the PTB will never be able to introduce it fast enough when the collapse hits.

The State has created a huge cadre of people who depend on GOV. This sounds like a good idea from the perspective of GOV,,, until GOV can no longer pay for the enormous clamoring horde. China is at war with the FED and this will ensure that the party ends pretty soon. What will happen to all those people who live in a State-supported bubble?
What will they do if economic reality intrudes into their comfortable bubble?

"For those of you on the left I know it is hard. You are confused, bewildered and deeply, deeply saddened. Maybe even triggered. You probably missed work or school yesterday, called in sick or simply didn’t get out of bed. That’s ok though because your Indigenous Women’s Studies prof said it was ok to skip the exam today. Everyone is getting an A as a morale builder."
https://www.theburningplatform.com/2...-its-not-over/

Some people figure on going to Canada to continue the free ride;
https://www.theburningplatform.com/2...s-from-canada/

"The US can no longer afford to be the world’s policeman.

Non-Solutions

1. Central bank sponsored inflation is not the solution, it is the problem.
2. Regulation is not the solution, it is the problem.
3. Public unions are not the solution, they are the problem.
4 Competitive currency debasement is not the solution it is the problem.
5. More debt is not the solution, it is the problem.
6. Warmongering is not the solution, it is the problem.
7. Tariffs are not the solution, they are the problem.
8. Minimum wage hikes are nor the solution, they are the problem.
9. More military spending is not the solution, it is the problem.
10. The status quo is not the solution, it is the problem."
https://mishtalk.com/2016/11/10/not-getting-it/

[Danny B]

Trade imbalances and gold

The banks cut off the credit to Hanjin Shipping and it completely collapsed. While the banks could cut off general credit to purposely crash the economy,,, to crash Trump,,,, the memories of LTCM, AIG, Freddy, Fannie and Lehman Bros. are not for off. The banks can indeed crash the system BUT, they can't control how far it goes down.

Pax Americana and the FED planned to de-couple the economy from the rest of the world and watch the rest crash. That did NOT work.
The End of the Federal Reserve hegemony - 2017? [Video] - Fort Russ

Advice for Trump;
"Trump will be offered much advice, all of it bad. Apart from the usual lobbying from political groups, Wall Street and the Fed have set themselves up in their own cosy world, freed from political intervention, where they quietly rob the poor and reward themselves and their business cronies through monetary inflation, made justified as monetary policy. Exceptionally, Trump has not yet been bought by the banks, unlike presidents before him."

The article is deeply flawed but, it has just a couple of good points.
" The false logic, the concept that a rise in the general level of prices is economically beneficial, is now laid bare, because rising prices only reflect monetary debasement, not increased demand."
"Trump is a businessman. Such people often think that running a country’s economy is merely a scaled-up business project. Not so. Countries can be regarded as not-for-profit organisations, and democratic ones are driven by the consensus of diverse vested interests."
Most of the article is the usual economic bunkum.
Perilous government finances

11/11 Bonds plunge $1 trillion this week as Trump seen game changer – Bloomberg
11/11 Oil tumbles to $43 handle as Iran production surged – Zero Hedge Deflation by any other name is still deflation.
11/11 Gold crashes to 5 month lows as ‘someone’ dumps over $10 billion – Zero Hedge Desperation by any other name is still desperation.
11/11 Market betting Trump brings higher inflation, interest rates – NY Times This shows that the NY Times can reliably be expected to be wrong all the time. The FED created gobs of currency inflation to hold down the interest rates in the upper loop. This was done so that the banks could always "earn" some "spread". The FED can raise interest rates and completely crater the economy. That would by an enormous deflation implosion.

Mish,,, irresponsible lenders.
"there seems to be an aggrieved sense on the part of creditors that after providing so much helpful funding to undisciplined debtors, the creditors are going to be left with losses. There is, they claim, something terribly unfair about the whole thing."

Trade Imbalances Lead to Debt Imbalances
"As long as Germany runs current account surpluses for many years and Spain the corresponding deficits, it is by definition true there must have been net capital flows from Germany to Spain as Germany bought Spanish assets (which includes debt obligations) to balance the current account imbalances. The capital and current accounts for any country, and for the world as a whole, must balance to zero."

"In the old days of specie currency – gold and silver – this meant that specie would have flowed from Spain to Germany as the counterbalancing entry, and of course this flow created its own resolution. Less gold and silver in Spain relative to the size of its economy was deflationary in Spain and more gold and silver in Germany was inflationary there – until the point where the real exchange rate between the two countries had adjusted sufficiently because of changes in domestic prices to reverse the trade imbalances."

"Free Trade is unquestionably beneficial for humanity at large. It is good to be able to buy goods where they are cheapest; some countries enjoy conditions that favor them in production of certain things; each country should produce those things in which it has an advantage over other countries. Thus, the whole world can benefit from the good things each country has to offer. It is an appealing and sound doctrine, but… there is a crucial catch: the doctrine of Free Trade was conceived for a world where the sole means of payment was gold."
EXCELLENT article;
https://mishtalk.com/2011/07/08/hugo...ine-revisited/

[Danny B]

Asymmetry... both bonds and the S&P have rolled over

Much of the Western/world economy rests on the faith that Central Bankers will always come to the rescue of investors who make bad investments. One of the worst investments is; government bonds. GOV always eventually defaults. This backstop by the CBs leads to VERY poor lending and investment decisions. All the bad debt just piles up and the CB has to continually print to rescue it from default. Since much of the financial system depends on confidence, nobody wants to see this confidence deflated.

"We’re in financial Disneyland and the screws are coming off the rides.
The turn has already happened though most market participants are as unaware of this as they were that Trump would be elected.
The most visible example of the structural shift, one which I’ve been writing to you about until my fingers bleed, was streamed live to us as Donald Trump was elected the 45th President of the United States.
But then again linear thinking extrapolated too far in a dynamic world produces this

Remember, quite literally every single exogenous market shock or unexpected, “risk off, holy mother of Mary, where did that come from?” event we’ve had in the past 30 years has seen treasuries rally. It has been THE safe haven trade. This was just repudiated as the 30-year was monkey hammered. I can’t express how significant this is. Ok, I can. It’s significant!!!

Was it even a vote FOR Trump?

I’d say no. It was much more a vote against Hillary, against the status quo, against the political pandering, against the corruption, against the deep state and it was a desperate grasp at something…anything which showed authenticity.
Trump was seen as authentic and Americans knew that they couldn’t trust anyone that had the look and feel of all the other political hookers they’ve become accustomed to. And so they voted for a wrecking ball to come in and destroy the deep state.

Now consider this. If the political status quo is being thrown out (and it clearly is) then I’d ask you what forms the financial political status quo?
It is my friends, the central bankers’ ability to keep the faith. The faith in the Fed, the faith in the ECB, the BOJ, and the BOE being amongst the most important. As my friend Grant Williams once mentioned. Everything… EVERYTHING… rests on one ephemeral thing: the market’s confidence in the power of central banks to ensure a good outcome no mater what.

As mentioned earlier we believe that bonds turned back in March of this year.
https://capitalistexploits.at/2016/1...harts-telling/

[Danny B]

Another piece of the dafault pie

Student loan defaults are WAY up there. Auto loan default is climbing fast. Now, we have news from real estate.
y-o-y foreclosure rates;
Colorado +64%
Georgia +22%
Pennsylvania +20%
Arizona +17%
Virginia +15%
Massachusetts +11%

"more heavily tied to loans originated since 2009” Those dastardly liar-loans.
"On average across the nation, the foreclosure rate was one foreclosure filing for every 1,258 housing units"
Delaware: one in every 355 housing units
New Jersey: one in every 564 housing units
Maryland: one in every 679 housing units
Illinois: one in every 704 housing units
South Carolina: one in every 801 housing units

And here are the “top” ten highest foreclosure rates among the 216 metropolitan areas with a population of over 200,000:

York-Hanover, PA: one in every 274 housing units
Atlantic City, NJ: one in every 301 housing units
Rockford, IL: one in every 481 housing units
Columbia, SC: one in every 498 housing units
Trenton, NJ: one in every 499 housing units.
Reading, PA: one in every 542 housing units
Chicago, IL: one in every 571 housing units

Foreclosure starts jumped 25% in October from the prior month, to 43,352. While still down 11% year-over-year, it was the highest monthly increase in foreclosure starts since December 2008.

Foreclosure starts increased even year-over-year in 23 states and Washington D.C. In some states they soared. The “top” five:

Colorado +71%
Arizona +48%
Ohio +34%
New York +15%
Virginia +15

Auction notices jumped 30% from the prior month to 43,815
ank repossessions (REO) jumped 25% from the prior month to 34,288 homes, the biggest monthly increase since July 2015. While REOs were still down 6% year-over-year nationally, they increased in 22 states and Washington D.C. The “top” five:

Massachusetts +104%
Georgia +53%
Wisconsin +45%
Texas +38%
Virginia +17%
"It’s doubly concerning that 49% of these foreclosure filings are on homes with low-down-payment mortgages backed by the FHA and VA and issued since 2009. Recall that low-down-payment mortgages played a big role in the last housing collapse."
What The Hell Is Suddenly Going On With Foreclosures? | Zero Hedge

This is a comment that I pilfered;
The FED
" Yup, they own 2.5T worth of mortagages which are title on land. You and I have to bust our asses to work to get cash to buy a house, not the FED, oh no! They get their banker buddies to give loans, with money that does not exist, to idiots that could never afford to pay and then when they can't pay, instead of letting the bank fail....the FED bails the bank out with....wait for it....more money printed out of thin air and get title of the property.

Did you girls follow that? Once again, loan out money that doesn't exitst to someone who can't pay to buy a house.
The loan goes bad, the bank gets in trouble so the FED buys the loan from the bank with fresh new money just printed.
FED now owns the house."

[Danny B]

No cash.... too much oil

Cash crimp in India. They are taking out of circulation currency notes that are worth, "500- and 1,000-rupee notes, worth around £6 and £12, would be taken out of circulation. " But, the timing is bad; “The local municipal elections are starting soon, and it will make life very difficult for politicians who take a lot of cash bribes around this time,” Birajdar said. "
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...banks-500-1000

The finance system is about to get pummelled again from a further crash in oil prices. Oil Tankers Used to Store Millions of Barrels as Land Sites Fill - Bloomberg

[Danny B]

The end of a credit cycle and beginning of a default cycle.

Al Gore has a brilliant strategy for fighting climate change, Spend $90 Trillion To Ban Cars From Every Major City In The World. https://mishtalk.com/2016/11/12/krug...e-is-clueless/
"$15 trillion in fixed income is trading at a price that guarantees investors will lose money if they buy the bond and hold it until maturity."
That means that these investors have to find a greater fool BEFORE the bond reaches maturity.
"First, total U.S. corporate debt is now 45% of GDP. That’s where the two previous credit cycles peaked (’02 and ’08)." "Second, and far more important when it comes to timing, the number of banks in the U.S. that are tightening lending standards is rising and has just passed a critical threshold (10%)."

"Morgan Stanley’s top high-yield bond analyst (Meghan Robson) believes the default rate in high-yield bonds will hit 14% by the end of 2017 (it was basically zero in 2014). She also says the total default rate will peak at 25% annually within five years." Run for the exits.
" There are two ways to trigger a panic in the bond markets, not just one.
Yes, the first trigger is higher interest rates."
"But the second trigger for panic, the one they’re forgetting, is simply rising defaults. "
" This panic will begin in the next 12 months. And because the numbers are so large and global, the coming bear market in junk bonds will influence fixed-income markets and equity markets around the world.

Since 2012, junk-bond issuance has totaled $1.4 trillion in the U.S. alone. That’s as much capital in four years as was issued in the decade between 2002 and 2012." Mama Mia
Weekend Edition: Get Ready for the Greatest Financial Mania the World Has Ever Seen, Part 2 | Casey Research

There is already a lot of cash on the sidelines. What happens to this cash when debt instruments crash? Sidelined Cash Could Move Gold in Big Way

As the default cycle heats up, the banks will tighten credit. As we saw with Hanjin shipping, the loss of a credit line brought quick bankruptcy. If corporate debt is 45% of GDP, you can see that tightening credit will start feedback effects of collapse and unemployment. The world has so much over-capacity in manufacturing that the credit collapse will take down 60--70% of manufacturing before the dust settles. The CBs have started outright buying of equities to hold back the default cycle.
At some point the wheels will come off the roller coaster ride as it blindly flies through the casino while the riders are hopped up on monetary Viagra, snorting monetary oxycontin while sitting on a powder keg of $1 quadrillion in derivatives at the same time that they are trying to avoid flames shooting out of the U.S. Treasuries market.

[Danny B]

Bad growth.... arrested emotional development.

It's pretty quiet and there's nothing much new. Everything is being over-shadowed by the election results.
"Global financial firms provided the credit to make up for the wage stagnation that global trade helped cause. Between 1983 and 2007, mortgage debt nearly quintupled (after inflation). Other household debt – credit cards, auto loans, and the like – grew by nearly threefold. (The U.S. population didn't quintuple or triple; it grew by a third.)"
Sooner or later, somebody will figure out that you must have wages to also have consumption and an economy.
Like It or Not, Donald Trump Saw the Economic Crisis the Others Didn?t - The Daily Beast

California is now going to use radar to write tickets for speeding bicycles.
Trump has some good ideas for lightening student loans; https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...student-loans/

This is off-topic but, not entirely.
"coloring-book and Play-Doh therapy for college kids"
"school staff providing tissues and hot chocolate.”
"reminded students via social media of the therapy dogs available for comfort "
"Tufts, Cornell, the University of Michigan—schools for high-performing students."
"a national survey by the American Institutes for Research (AIR)” has discovered that “[t]wenty percent of U.S. college students completing four-year degrees—and 30 percent of students earning two-year degrees…are unable to estimate if their car has enough gasoline to get to the next gas station or calculate the total cost of ordering office supplies…[or] compare ticket prices or calculate the cost of a sandwich and a salad from a menu.”
https://jonrappoport.wordpress.com/2...-college-kids/

ALL the markets have rolled over and we have entered the default cycle. Just what are these kids going to do when 60--70% of the economy collapses?,,, other than blame Trump.
"Character is best developed in the stormy billows of the world" What stormy billows?,,,, a broken fingernail? These kids are not going to make it.

[Danny B]

All quiet on the western front,,, not so quiet on the eastern front

There really isn't much happening at the moment because markets don't know how to react to the political changes.
11/14 Emerging market bond, currency markets face ‘meltdown’ – CNBC
11/15 Selloff in bonds, emerging assets deepens, dollar gains – Bloomberg
11/13 Donald Trump’s currency call on China risks trade war – News.com.au
11/15 Will China’s financial bust ever come? – Bloomberg
11/15 Selloff in bonds, emerging assets deepens, dollar gains – Bloomberg
As the dollar rises, the emerging markets will find it ever more difficult to service dollar-denominated debt. It also makes U.S. exports less competitive.

11/15 Iran surprises OPEC with a further 250,000 BPD increase – Oil Price There's more than one way to fight a war. Oil has fallen and it won't get up any time soon. The exporters have run out of room to store it. The bankruptcies will continue to pile up.

11/15 Trump will quit global climate accord – hurray! – Dr. Sircus
11/14 As Trump heads to WA, global warming nears tipping point – Bloomberg The BS nears the tipping point.

[Danny B]

The next phase of the crash is starting..... Kunstler

By electing Rat Ryan, the GOP has indicated that they are going to block Trump's spending plans. That is going to cause big problems down the road.
The bankers backing the chump from Kenya were happy to inflate with no limit. BUT, they have locked the economy into ZIRP and Trump can't break the pattern without a total crash. Trump's Mandate to Yellen: Print More Money or You're Fired! | Michael Pento | Safehaven.com
The House originates all spending bills and they may very well decide that now is the time to become responsible.
We are faced with financial death by explosion OR, financial death by implosion.

(Marx), "In this view, there is no meaningful class difference between the well-paid liberal technocrat with the $1 million (mortgaged) house on the Left/Right Coast and the rural conservative "deplorable" wage earner. Both must sell their labor and neither earns a livelihood from wealth-generating capital."

" Both are precarious, but not equally so. The well-paid technocrat believes his skills will protect him from unemployment, and he is equally confident that the "wealth" in his mortgaged house and stocks/bonds 401K retirement account is secure and permanent.
He feels superior to the "deplorable" wage earner, but this superiority is contingent on 1) asset bubbles never popping (ahem, which they always do, eventually; 2) software that's eating the world will not eat his job or the premium he is currently being paid, and 3) the skills he currently has won't become over-supplied as the global work force expands into the sectors that require high levels of education."

" The urban liberal technocrat feels morally superior to the "deplorable" wage earner because he 1) considers himself a "winner" and the "deplorable" a loser and 2) he has mastered the politically correct speech acts that signify his superior "progressive" status.
There are two ironies in this presumed superiority:
1. The urban liberal technocrat is one credit/asset crash and one pink slip away from a rapid and catastrophic decline in living standards to "loser" status"
oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith: The New Nobility Uses Political Correctness to Fragment the Precariats

Kunstler has his latest observations;
"Not to put too fine a point on it, America coughed up Hillary Clinton like a hairball last week — the catch being it then had to swallow the Cheeto-colored bolus called Donald Trump. It was worth it to see the fog of Hillary-smuggery lift across the cable TV networks since the “I’m With Her / It’s Her Turn” fog was a cover for the looting operation that the permanent Washington DC establishment had turned into, including the Clinton Foundation."

"The big “tell” for me came at a moment in last week’s Slate Political Gabfest, a leftish-oriented podcast, when moderator David Plotz asked his sidekicks John Dickerson (of CBS News) and Emily Bazelon (of The NY Times) what the Democratic Party might do to regain legitimacy after this electoral disaster. Dead silence on the air. Nothing came to mind."

"The financialization of the economy is already playing into its disastrous climax as I write, with bond markets tanking all over the planet. What this means is that the long-ignored chickens of risk associated with debt are coming home to roost. As they do, they are going to $hit over everything on the financial landscape. Industrial societies have been borrowing from the future to a grotesque degree for decades, pretending that these debts were assets rather than liabilities. That perception is about to change, and with it an enormous amount of presumed notional wealth is going to disappear. That will manifest in rising bond yields (and falling bond values), cratering currencies, panicked capital flows, banking emergencies, and weird action in markets. If that seems too metaphysical, you can also think of it as contracting economies and the withering of global trade relations. "

"My sense of things is that this meta-predicament alone could overwhelm the Trump government from the very start. We could have problems with money orders of magnitude worse than anything FDR faced in 1933, with bank closures, the seizing of accounts, and the paralysis of everyday business. That would easily lead to civil disorders, a breakdown in law, and the immiseration of most Americans. It could also lead to previously-unimagined political outcomes, such as a discontinuity of government. This is connected with the second meta-problem, the burdens of empire.

The USA is squandering its vitality trying to maintain a half-assed global empire of supposed interests, economic, ideological, and existential. Lately, this hapless project has only resulted in wars with no end in places we don’t belong. " Blame Tel Aviv

"As it happens, America may be forced by economic circumstances to yield the burdens of empire. The world is about to become a bigger place again as globalism winds down and the larger nations establish more realistic spheres of influence. We better get with the program." It happened to Great Britain, France, et al
What Now? - KUNSTLER

[Danny B]

Revolution Edition

"There is an attempt to create a socialist revolution in this country led by the youth and Obama and Hillary seem happy with that. This is a very dangerous situation and the computer does show rising civil unrest. The Democrats seems to be intent on burning down democracy if they do not win. I have never seen this get so out of hand in my lifetime."
Martin Armstrong Warns "We Are Spiraling Toward Civil War If This Is Not Stopped" | Zero Hedge

John Rubino; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lFBgQJNwd2A

Jim Willie; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7FytpzuAVw8
Charles Hugh Smith on the slide into disorder; oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith: Now Is the Winter of our Discontent: Our Era of Rising Discord
Venezuela lost their income in the fall of oil prices. America will lose it's income in the rejection of Treasury bonds. We will have to actually pay for what we import.
As the U.S. Smolders, Venezuela Burns - Bloomberg

11/16 Fed rate-hike odds approach 100% in anticipation of Trumponomics – Bloomberg
ANY rate hike at all will bring total disaster. Our debt is reckoned as 250% of GDP. A rate hike would crater the bond market and make most markets insolvent.
11/16 A record 25% of used car trade-ins are underwater – Zero Hedge Buy a snorkel. You're going to need it for everything.
11/16 Meet CA’s 218,667 public employees making over $100k/year – Liberty Blitzkrieg Costa Mesa firemen cost over $ 250,000 a year each.
There will be a day of reckoning and the public employees are going to be very unhappy.

The head of the SEC was instrumental in promoting the paper-gold scam. This was done to hold interest rates down and allow huge monetary inflation,,, so we could have lots of wars on our credit card.
She is leaving as Trump is entering. There is over 4500 tons of gold traded daily. It is doubtful that Trump will appoint a crook to the head of the SEC.
Everybody will abandon the paper-gold market if they fear it will have an attack of honesty on bogus position limits. Should this occur, you won't find physical gold for sale at any price.

Jim Willie has been adamant that we will get a new currency. GOV will print to try to keep all the GOV programs and GOV employees happy. That is when we will see price inflation. That is when imports will fall drastically in volume. That is when GOV will convert retirement funds into GOV bonds.

[Danny B]

Ongoing bond market exodus

Armstrong has clearly predicted that investors will exit the GOV bond markets.
"The Government “bond rout” didn’t start with Trump’s election victory. It started in July. And it didn’t just hit US Treasuries. It hit government bonds around the world. It hit US Treasuries particularly hard. "
Trump laid out plans for massive infrastructure spending and big tax cuts. The markets assume that he plans to borrow tons of money.
"Dreading this supply, bond traders went out and cut great-big holes into the most magnificent bond bubble in history, and what we’ve been hearing since this act of Fed-defying vandalism is the deafening sound of hot air hissing out of it."
"In terms of dollars and cents, the CBOT Price Index for 30-year bonds has plunged 12% since early July!"
Will the “Rout” in Government Bonds Turn into Carnage? | Wolf Street

"To lose 12% in four months on an investment that yields less than 3% annually"
"This week, globally, the market value of Bank of America’s Global Broad Market Index, tracking over 24,000 bonds, has plunged by $1.14 trillion"

There is definitely a flight from U.S. GOV bonds. Saudis, China Dump Treasuries; Foreign Central Banks Liquidate A Record $375 Billion In US Paper | Zero Hedge

It's not just Federal governments that have over-spent.
11/17 Illinois’ unfunded pension liabilities reach $130 billion: study – Reuters
11/17 Illinois’ wealth flight explained in 4 graphics – Illinois Policy

Commercial real estate;
“You couldn’t have planned worse timing,” explained Tad Philipp, director of commercial real-estate research at Moody’s,"
"Fitch laments that the “timing and severity of this softening is uncertain and depends on factors including interest rates and overall economic conditions.”
Who’ll Get Hit by Fallout from the $11-Trillion Commercial Property Bubble in the US? | Wolf Street
Our wages went down,,, our spending went down,,,,, commerce went down,,, there are over 1 billion sq.ft. of empty retail real estate. Manufacturing went down. Many of these buildings were financed in the good times. As the good times ended, the loans were rolled over to keep cash flow moving.
The bad times are still with us and the loans are defaulting.

Trump will eventually have to make a decision about debt-free helicopter money. The banks will probably fight it even though it is the only thing that might save them.

We actually DO need a central band. Human nature being what it is, we are prone to panics. The banking industry is prone to over-reach and crash. The job of the central bank is to keep the panic from spreading. This is a legitimate function and, was the only function of the original FED. They would make emergency loans to banks for GOOD collateral. This prevented GOOD banks from crashing. The wildcat/bad banks were left to crash. Subsequent changes in the FED charter are what brought us to the sad state where bad banks are saved. There are frequent demands that the FED be abolished. We need a central bank that is independent of banker control.
Why Donald Trump Must Shut Down The Federal Reserve And Start Issuing Debt-Free Money

When it comes to credit, why should we expect either the banks or the public to have any self-imposed limits?
"#9 Total household debt in the United States has now reached a grand total of 12.3 trillion dollars."
"#4 Approximately 35 percent of all Americans have a debt that is at least 180 days past due."
"#1 Nearly 7 out of every 10 Americans have less than $1,000 in savings. That means that about two-thirds of the country is essentially living paycheck to paycheck at this moment."
11 Very Depressing Economic Realities That Donald Trump Will Inherit From Barack Obama
Credit is a poison-pill for most people.

[Danny B]

Dollar illiquidity

Alternative currencies in Spain, https://sputniknews.com/europe/20161...cial-currency/
Eurozone Ready to Sign Off on Sanctions Against Portugal, Spain
I'm sure that will fix everything.

Fed's Kashkari Releases Plan To End "Too Big To Fail", Compares Banks To Terrorists
"Here we see that the Bank for International Settlements’ consensus estimate for the typical cost of a banking crisis is 158 percent of GDP, which for the U.S. economy equals roughly $28 trillion. This is the present value of the long-term effects of a banking crisis." Fed's Kashkari Releases Plan To End "Too Big To Fail", Compares Banks To Terrorists | Zero Hedge

"Dollar Illiquidity Getting Critical: A $10 Trillion Short Which The Fed Does Not Understand"
"evolving crisis due to the dollar shortage outside the US, a topic which even the head researcher at the BIS shone a spotlight on yesterday suggesting that the strength of the dollar, not the VIX is the new "fear indicator".
The bitter irony is that the institution which appears to have very little understanding of what’s actually happening is the Federal Reserve."

"The price of the dollar acts like a “Global Fed Funds Rate”. A rising dollar tightens economic conditions globally, adding considerable deflationary pressure"
Dollar Illiquidity Getting Critical: A $10 Trillion Short Which The Fed Does Not Understand | Zero Hedge
Yep, the flight to the dollar can bring everything else down.

11/16 Dollar index rises to 14-year high, pullback expected – Reuters
11/16 Strong dollar will be bad for emerging market securities – Forbes
11/16 Dollar rise a threat to global financial stability: BIS – Reuters

Tel Aviv West and Tel Aviv East both agree that Syria must be destroyed as a State. The Russians have put in enough missile to keep everybody out. If Syria was destroyed, Tel Aviv can come in and steal the goodies.
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/2...oil-discovery/
McCain is frothing at the mouth at the prospect that Trump will make peace with Russia.
Trump,,,,,,, America first,,,, how dare he?

[Danny B]

Justifying a rate hike

The dollar rises as investors flee weak markets/States; 11/18 Italy leads euro-area bond selloff – BloombergThe FED talks about raising rates,,,, which will attract more capital and make the dollar stronger.
Dollar Illiquidity Getting Critical: A $10 Trillion Short Which The Fed Does Not Understand
So, dollars are in very short supply to service dollar-denominated debt. Investors are searching for yield and will flock to on-shore dollar investments if the FED raises rates.
11/18 Fed rate rise could come ‘relatively soon’ – Wall St. Journal
11/18 Treasury yields reach year’s high, Fed par for rate hike – Bloomberg
11/18 Jobless claims in U.S. decline, lowest in four decades – Bloomberg GREAT, with full employment, we can definitely use a rate hike.

Neither Trump, nor god can turn the economy around soon. He has to continue current policies for a while. The FED has held rates down for most of the tenure of the Kenyan bum. The December FED meeting should give us an indication if the economy is going to die of implosion OR explosion.

An article on the problems in India by; Jayant Bhandari
Scenes Of Panic In India As Gold Price Skyrockets After Currency Ban | Zero Hedge
Turns out, they elected a tea seller as Prime Minister.