Economic pressures

[Danny B]

Kunstler, Hoffman and SRSrocco

Kunstler has a long, comprehensive article about what to expect in the future. Forecast 2017: The Wheels Finally Come Off - KUNSTLER

Hoffman;
" let’s face it, there is no way to economically manage 7.4 billion people, without the scourges of socialism, fascism, and communism forcing their way into the fold. I mean, when the gold standard was abandoned in 1971, the global population was just 3.5 billion, so we have more than doubled the population in less than five decades.

In the early stages of this era, the combination of unfettered money printing and population growth led to an explosion of economic activity, accompanied by fabulous “paper wealth.” Unfortunately, once “peak” debt and demographics were exceeded – not un-coincidentally, around the time of the historic 2000 and 2008 financial crashes – overpopulation became a major global issue; in my view, as much a contributing factor to the dramatic political changes sweeping the planet as anything else."
A LOT of other good info. http://www.24hgold.com/english/news-...r=Andy+Hoffman

"The extremely large deviation between the deficit and debt in 2016 illustrates the complex nature of the government accounting."
"What is interesting to take notice in the chart in the quoted text above, is that the high spike in total U.S. debt versus the annual budget deficit took place during the 2008-2009 U.S. financial and economic crash. However, another large spike took place in 2016 as the total debt increased $1.2 trillion versus $590 billion in the budget deficit."
"For example, in 2006, the total public debt (yellow) was $4.829 trillion. However, the total U.S. Government debt was $8.5 trillion that year. Thus, the Intragovernmental holdings were approximately $3.7 trillion."

"If we look at 2017, the total U.S. public debt is forecasted to reach $14.743 trillion. Thus, the CBO blew their previous 2008-2017 budget by a cool $10 trillion. "
"Let’s put the CBO ten-year budget forecasts into perspective. According to their 2008-2017 budget made in 2007, they forecasted the total pubic debt would fall from $4.995 trillion in 2008 to $4.274 trillion in 2017. It didn’t. Instead it is forecasted to jump by $10 trillion to $14.743 trillion in 2017. Again, the CBO understated the rising public debt by $10 trillion."
https://srsroccoreport.com/accountin...-from-sinking/

[Danny B]

The ongoing death of retail stores

More bunkum. Here is an article explaining that the FED is raising rates to help out the banks. There is NO MENTION of $1 quadrillion of derivatives, mostly interest-rate-swaps that are held mostly by banks. There is SO much financial illiteracy and BS masquerading as legitimate information.
The Reason the Fed is Raising Rates, and Why It Won’t Work - The Unz Review

"The US has 23.5 square feet of retail space per person, compared with 16.4 square feet in Canada and 11.1 square feet in Australia — the next two countries with the highest retail space per capita, according to a Morningstar report from October." France has about 5.9 sq.ft per person.
This, at the same time that e-commerce is killing retail stores.
A giant wave of store closures is about to hit the US - Business Insider

Upcoming events; Money, Markets, & Mayhem - What To Expect In The Year Ahead | Zero Hedge
Corruption in public pensions, "It's Corruption On Steroids" - A Look Inside The El Monte, California Public Employee Pension | Zero Hedge
Some good news; How George Soros Destroyed the Democratic Party | Frontpage Mag

[Danny B]

The parasites are hungry

The ratio of BS to actual honest news is getting worse and worse.
1/03 Japan looks to escape its economic slump – Stratfor Stratfor is a multinational strategic think tank. This is the best that they an come up with?
1/03 G20 countries’ gov’t debt surpasses US$57 trillion – Arirang
1/03 Potential new banking crises are a concern in Europe – CNBC This is news?
1/02 Humanity may self-destruct, but the universe can cope without us – Guardian
1/03 Corporates lead surge to record $6.6 trillion debt issuance – The News Yep, they need to roll-over a LOT of debt.

Back to Armstrong. He says that GOV is hunting up taxes/fines/money EVERYWHERE it can.
"Police in Australia hit a new low last week charging people with DUI while floating on pool toys in Sydney Harbour claiming they are a “vessels”.
"The police are no longer here to protect society. They are here to extract as much money from us at gun point. This is precisely how Rome fell. Once there was not enough money to pay pensions, the army began sacking their own cities to get paid."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...-in-australia/

Erdogan of Turkey is fast becoming a dictator. Dictators rarely have any respect for property rights. Just as in Venezuela, investors flee fearing that their investments will be nationalized. https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...ency-shows-it/

[Danny B]

The end game of crony capitalism and wars-for-profit

Here is a graph of house prices on this page; Fears of a 'massive' global property price fall amid 'dangerous' conditions and market slow-down
1/02 House prices defy predictions in 2016 by rising more than 15pc – AFR
So, the hot-money flows into RE and regular people can no longer afford to buy. I’ll bet "they" didn't plan on that.

"NEW YORK (Project Syndicate) — Donald Trump’s election as president of the United States does not just represent a mounting populist backlash against globalization. It may also portend the end of Pax Americana — the international order of free exchange and shared security the U.S. and its allies built after World War II.

That U.S.-led global order has enabled 70 years of prosperity. It rests on market-oriented regimes of trade liberalization, increased capital mobility, and appropriate social-welfare policies; backed by American security guarantees in Europe, the Middle East, and Asia, through NATO and various other alliances."
Roubini: Trump presidency could mean end of Pax Americana and the prosperity it has brought - MarketWatch
We raped and pillaged the whole world for fun and profit and he laments the end of this.
This is the criminal mentality that justifies everything that the criminals do. How can anybody claim "security guarantees in the Middle East" with a straight face?

1/03 Summers: strong dollar a bigger risk than inflation – Bloomberg
the strong dollar hurts exports but, draws in world capital.
Wikileaks plans to make 2017 very interesting; WikiLeaks Hints At Huge Upcoming Revelations: "2017 Will Blow You Away" | Zero Hedge

FOFOA has an excellent article on crony capitalism; FOFOA: Happy New Year!
Bring on the bombs,,, we're bored; Dallas Pension Not Only "Ticking Time Bomb Ready To Explode," Public Policy Director Warns | Zero Hedge
Last but, not least, 1/03 How to survive a mass shooting – Survival Sullivan Simple,, don't get shot.

[Danny B]

The end of the current system and the possibilities of social credit

It is 100% obvious that fractional-reserve banking, debt-money and Keynesian economics have an end date that involves a LOT of eventual deflation. It is equally obvious that our system demands perpetual growth. It is also obvious that worker's share of compensation is falling. It is well known that we aren't going to have perpetual growth of credit when population growth is diminishing.
It is also well known that the lower 49 States are long past peak cheap oil. That too, is pulling down everything else.
There has been a stupendous amount of new debt creation to service old debts+interest.
New debt creation has gone beyond parabolic growth. We have an ever-larger portion of the population who no longer have access to a viable job niche. We have a reported $ 212 trillion of unfunded liabilities. There is a LOT of so-called money in the system but, it isn't circulating. With aggregate earning power crashing, consumption has crashed. The velocity of money has crashed in spite of the best efforts of the investor class. Without circulating, all the debt money is stranded.

Crony capitalism and the globalism Djin have pushed all the money up to the one%. The other top 9% is doing quite well also. BUT, they can't spend it. If they invest in RE, they drive up the price to where the 90% can't buy or rent anything. A dangerous proposition. They can't buy stocks because stocks depend on consumption from the 90%.

Dick Eastman;
,,,,"writings of Major C H Douglas who promoted the idea of Social Credit -- which roughly -- is the notion that because the business sector fails to give enough income to consumers and investors to buy the consumers' goods and producers' goods that businesses produce -- there is insufficient purchasing power to buy everything and to keep businesses in the black, hiring and expanding "
"which problem Doulgas, in 1919, proposed fixing by having the government provide purchasing power directly to British subjects in the form of a regular social credit dividend. "
" There is also some disagreement on why there is a gap between the incomes that businesses pay out to worker/consumers and the total cost of producing the product."
" I suppose I should mention where I think the "gap" comes from. The gap comes from lenders who neither lend nor consume with the interest they get back from borrowers -- which causes deflation -- and of course that deflation is the gap."
"And I should tell you why the lenders hold the interest rather than lending it: because the system is deflationary and in deflation you don't have to risk your money by lending it in order for the pile to gain in value (in purchasing power) -- the deflation takes care of that for them. That is the big secret that economics -- the smart Jewish ones at the ivy league schools who know the secret"
"give this horrible system of forced deflation, debt, default and depression the cover of a smoke screen -- the smoke screen invented by Keynes"
" out all of the good economists who more or less tried to tackle the great depression without smoke to protect the thieves. For example -- the name Keynes gives to what I have described to you rightly as lenders holding on to the interest they take in so it will increase in value purely from the deflation -- Keynes called this "thrift" -- and his solution? He did not give the honest solution -- of putting money in peoples hands so they can buy all that they can produce "
"What would the solution of a shill for the Bank of England and Rothschild favor? you guessed it DEFICIT-FINANCED GOVERNMENT SPENDING. No joke. That is their answer. It is exactly that that Paul Krugman faults Donald Trump for not supporting. So I recommend Robert Klink and his video just received to you. There is a gap and a social credit dividend provided as a public utility (as social credit) is the answer. Our nations (US, Canada, UK, and all the rest) must borrow their national money supplies from international lenders (who own our central banks as well as the biggest banks and the lion's share of the rest) and we -- unnecessarily -- must pay interest on those loans for a money supply that the government could have printed up and supplied to all of us (via dividends to households) at no cost to them or to us."

"We need a permanent money supply that is not co-created with compounding debt. More or less I agree with what Robert Klink has to say."
" Occasionally I get comments on facebook, here is the URL for my FB timeline link to "Economists' Failed Professionalism" by Robert Klink "https://www.facebook.com/dick.eastman.56/posts/1795042627414166

We have a falling living standard which has contributed to our falling birth rate. This has led to a demographic crash. Earth is due for a rest from man's growing demands.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kbLQQaHRnfg&t=387s
The responsible societies have cut back their birth rate. The irresponsible societies are fornicating with wild abandon but, without birth control. The unfolding crash is going to be especially bad for the elderly because that safety net has just gotten too expensive. I really can't say if social credit would make a difference to them or not.
We can't continue with the present system at the same time that automation is taking over everything in sight.
The public debt is unpayable. There is definitely an end in sight to the creation of more debt money. The State can produce debt-free money OR, they can let the elderly die en masse.
I suspect that the irresponsible societies will be allowed and encouraged to die.

Socialism kills motivation. It is a big question if we can have social credit and still have enough motivation to get necessary production to keep things going.
Another emerging problem is; we MUST have a reliable store-of-value. There is no point in working hard if you can't have a store of wealth. When GOV steals everything, you quit producing excess wealth.
I'm sure that we can count on the State to muck things up very badly.

[Danny B]

Herded into the cashless society with a cattle prod

The bankers were incensed that India operated a cash economy. They complained that Indians were "underbanked". They wanted all that money under their personal control. Modi complied because it would also be good for GOV to have access to that money to tax and shrink it. A construction worker in the city makes about $4.4 dollars a day. He can't mess around with banks and checks when he needs money every day to eat.

The main parasites, banks and GOV are trying to push everyone into a cashless society so that funds are available for them to steal. 5 States that are close to cashless; http://www.totalpayments.org/2013/07...ess-countries/

Greece is a financial basket case. Both GOV and the banks have a plan to do an end-run around the Greeks who want to hold on to their money. Naturally, the State and bankers want the money.

"If you’re Greek and make less than 10,000 euros, you’ve got to make 10% of your payments with plastic. Make up to 30,000 and that number rises to 15%. Over 30,000 and it rises to 20%.

And if you don’t play by the rules? Enjoy that 22% penalty. Say you make 50,000 and you’re required to spend 10,000 digital. But you only spend 5,000 digital. Your penalty would be 22% of that 5,000 you didn’t spend — 1,100 euros."
As if this isn't enough to fork you pretty well, it gets even better; "Here’s another bug the elites consider a feature: rent, utilities, loan repayments, transportation expenses and many other expenses don’t count."
"Households will be obliged to spend money even if they do not want to. As the large part of monthly need coverage (utilities. etc.) is not accepted by the tax office, households who do not manage to reach the necessary percentage through supermarket percentages will have to go and spend like crazy"
https://dailyreckoning.com/elites-do...ash-eliminate/

[Danny B]

How to make America great when it is buried in debt

This article is on a subject that I haven't seen before. It talks about a chain of fortunate circumstances that allowed America to experience several growth spurts.
"What made America great before? Some people might want you to believe that it was hard work, pluck, gumption, honest dealing and innovation, but such preening and self-flattery are most unbecoming. No, what made America great before was Americans going after low-hanging fruit on somebody else’s dime. Let’s look at a few examples."

There is a lot in the article that can be contested but, it is an interesting read. It comes to the conclusion that we will have to pillage Saudi Arabia to keep momentum going.
ClubOrlov: How to Make America Great Again with Other People’s Money

To roll-over a loan, you have to create both principle and interest. The numbers can rise pretty fast. China central bank injects $124.9 billion in Dec, up 13 percent from Nov - Yahoo Finance
1/03 Insurance claim adjusters replaced by “IBM Watson explorer” – Mish Another brick in the wall.

[Danny B]

Chinese capital flight,,, depreciating return on new debt

"China central bank injects $124.9 billion in Dec, up 13 percent from Nov"
China is forced to print to hold off massive defaults. They weaken their currency and capital leaves the country. They worry about capital flight and print more money to make up the difference.
"Last week, Beijing unveiled its latest set of capital controls according to which Chinese banks would be required to report all yuan-denominated cash transactions exceeding 50,000 yuan (around 7,100 US dollars) to the People's Bank of China (PBOC), down from the current level of 200,000 yuan. "

"citizens faced draconian new currency exchange disclosure requirements, requiring foreign currency buyers to indicate how they plan to use the money and when they plan to spend it. Additionally, mainlanders would be restricted from using the FX proceeds to buy overseas property, securities, life insurance or other investment-style insurance products. "
About those overseas properties, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fTPym5VHI4c

"But most troubling is the admission that "China may further cut U.S. Treasury holdings in 2017 if needed to keep exchange rate stable; size of reduction depends on capital outflows and FX market intervention," or in other words, the worst-case scenario which so many serious "economists" have said can not conceivably happen.

Well, China is now actively considering it, which means that should the Yuan continues to slide, Beijing is close to implementing it. "
China Warns May Dump Treasuries To Keep Yuan Stable, Prepares More Capital Controls | Zero Hedge

China is selling a lot of foreign reserves to keep things alive, https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/...w/v2/-1x-1.png
1/04 China: US ‘shooting star’ in history as Trump picks protectionist trade chief – Guardian That's what they say before the revolution.
1/04 China’s credit engine is running out of gas – Bloomberg
1/04 China goes on $26 trillion commodity binge as shortages seen – Bloomberg Their manufacturing and exports are crashing but, they see looming shortages of commodities. The Chinese muppets get sucked in.

"Between 2000 and 2015, and expressed at constant 2015 dollar values, global real GDP expanded by $27 trillion – but this came at the expense of $87 trillion in additional indebtedness (a number which excludes the inter-bank or “financial” sector). This meant that, in inflation-adjusted terms, each growth dollar cost $3.25 in net new debt." Excluding the upper loop.
"On my forecast basis, global real “growth” of $8.2 trillion between now and 2020 is likely to come at a cost of $29 trillion in new debt. "
"Adding everything together, the world would be $116 trillion more indebted in 2020 than in 2000, whilst real GDP would have increased by $35 trillion."
GDP is just a measurement of how much money is in the economy.
"the United States would have added $30 trillion in debt for $6 trillion in growth. "
"Moreover, these numbers relate only to formal debt, excluding the financial sector whilst taking no account of quasi-debt obligations such as pension commitments. "

" According to the SEEDS system, the trend energy cost of energy (ECoE) cost us 4% of GDP back in 2000, but now accounts for 8.2%, and will reach 9.6% by 2020. Adjusting real GDP for this indicates that, between 2000 and 2015, the amount of debt added for each “growth” dollar was $3.80, not $3.25 – and that, from here on, each $1 of growth is going to cost us over $4.70 in new borrowing."
https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordp...looking-ahead/
It is doubtful that the ChiComs will ever develop a respect for private property rights. When the crash hits, they will go sliding down into the abyss grabbing everything they can to stave off revolution. They have a lot of gold but, they may end up trading gold for food to keep things going. They aren't going to get credit or foreign investment. They have lots of dreams but, they gamble too much and have a lot of enemies.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JJVZ8sf6uBI&t=47s

[Danny B]

Armstrong, 401s to evaporate. Smart people who believe GOV BS

Armstrong picks them pretty well;
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; Your Global Market Watch picked the high in bonds perfectly and called it a major high. I have to say, the system you have created monitoring everything is an incredible teaching tool."
"REPLY: Yes – here they come. It’s April 16, 2017. Personally, I would choose a self-directed brokerage account. They will not reform and they cannot keep this game moving. What they are doing will destroy those who have valid 401K plans to benefit government workers who are foolish enough to believe government in the first place." So, steal the 401 money to hand it out to the parasites.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...your-way-2017/

"These groups of Six Waves tend to coincide with the collapse in the energy output of the sun. The climate change we are heading into is by no means global warming, it is back down to record cold. That is not good in the least for civilization."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/m...limate-change/

1/04 British consumers borrow at fastest rate in 11 years as inflation threat rises – Reuters
1/05 UK credit binge approaching levels not seen since 2008 crash – Guardian MAYBE, they're all broke.
Here is an article from Nomi Prins. She is very well known and considered smart. My Political-Financial Road Map for 2017 - Thoughts - Nomi Prins
The 3 main items that I read are; no gold in the US. GOV.,,, Unemployment is about 24%,,, there are just about $1 quadrillion in derivatives.
Anybody who believes that U.S. GOV is sitting on 8339 tons of gold is a fool.
Anybody who believes that unemployment is just 4% is a fool.
Anybody who ignores the derivatives is a fool.

These are critical facets of the economy. Anybody who accepts the numbers from GOV and bases their predictions on faulty numbers, can't be taken too seriously.
1/05 China media warn Trump of ‘big sticks’ if he seeks trade war – Bloomberg BIG imagination,,,, small sticks

[Danny B]

Pensions, China, retail crash, more lies, inflation in Germany

Everybody is holding their breath waiting to see what will happen when Trump inaugurated. He can't stop the crash but, he can slow it down.
" these market movements have helped corporate pension plans reduce their deficit by $116 billion!1"
"While a $116 billion advance is certainly good news, U.S. corporations are still left with a $414 billion shortfall."
"Oh, and keep in mind that while corporate pensions have swelled to the tune of $116 billion, these funds still have a deficit $10 billion worse than it was at the beginning of the year."
"The reported $116 billion advance was largely due to higher expectations for future investment returns."

The hard-and-fast statistics show that the stock market won't have any returns for at least the next 10 years.
https://dailyreckoning.com/think-pension-safe-think/

Credit growth in China has been 20% per year. It's gotten completely out of control and now they don't know what to do other then print more. The Chinese Chart That Keeps The IMF Up At Night | Zero Hedge

There is over 1 billion sq.ft. of empty retail space in America. Online sales have wiped out the malls. It's not really a big surprise. Good graph. The retail apocalypse summed up perfectly in one chart—commentary It's only going to get worse.

Here is an erudite article that examines the financial trends. It focuses EXCLUSIVELY on the upper loop of the economy so, it is incorrect in almost every facet. https://wealth.goldmoney.com/researc...efcode=dollarc
These boneheads are still claiming that all the excess reserves held at the FED by member banks will cause great price inflation when they move into the general economy. These funds move ONLY around the upper loop. The lower loop is debt saturated and has no desire or access to this money.
The banks have to approve liar-loans just to move a small part of this money into the economy.

1/06 Inflation welcomed back – Deutschland
1/06 Draghi’s German problem flares up as inflation surge stirs anger – Bloomberg
Inflation welcomed back by the upper loop but, hated by the lower loop that NEVER sees commensurate wage inflation. The upper loop sees downward wage pressure as a chance to hold on to a higher margin. Apparently, it never occurred to them that sales and taxes depend on decent wages and disposable income.

[Danny B]

COLA, currency confidence, the rot in academia

U.S. wages are back to where they were decades ago. Labor's share of profits are continually falling. The stock market has been rising commensurately with our falling wages. http://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-c...ones-Chart.png
There are about 40 links at the bottom of the article. Weekend Reading: The Beginning Of The Ending | Zero Hedge
Money printing benefits those closest to the spigot. The inflation burden is borne by those farthest from the spigot. Our wages are heavily taxed but, it would be an unfair burden to tax financial transactions.
The wealth has been transferred to the upper loop. Those people with lots of money can buy politicians and advantageous legislation. All we can do is vote. They tried to phase out voting in Europe. In America, the voting "problem" was rectified with fraud.

"A stronger dollar is not only a vote of confidence in the U.S. economy. It also tightens the deflationary cinch that is strangling the world economy. So an ironic effect of Trump’s efforts to improve U.S. economic performance in a collapsing world is that it may accelerate collapse."
https://dailyreckoning.com/trump-blo...-across-world/

There is an interesting development unfolding. The dollar is strong because America is generally run by capitalists. Their general respect for private property (of the rich) has led a flight to the dollar as a safe haven (for the moment).
1/07 “Sell those euros. Sell’em.” – Elliott Wave
1/07 Isaacs: could get U.S.-China currency war, not trade war – Bloomberg NO POSSIBLE WAY. There is no confidence in the Yuan and/or the Chinese leadership. Confidence is everything. China can't "undo" their communist leanings. They can't stop printing Yuan. They can't stop capital flight. 1/07 Yuan intervention poised to fail: all not well in middle kingdom – Mish

Socialism just gets TOO EXPENSIVE. Look at the sad tale of Venezuela.
"In 1998, before Hugo Chavez became president, the extended broad money supply (M3) stood at 10.6 billion bolivars. By 2010, the Venezuelan money supply had already risen to more than 290 billion bolivars, and as of October 2016, money supply M3 reached 7,513.9 billion Venezuelan bolivars (graph 2)."

From the comments;
" Benjamin123 Jan 6, 2017 7:31 AM

The graph regarding venezuelan M3 is wrong on account that the Bolivar dissapeared as a currency some years ago. The actual currency is the "bolivar fuerte" and it is worth 1000 old bolivars. M3 went from 10 billion to 7000 billion times 1000. So close to a factor of 1 million.

Which squares with the exchange rate. It is now around 3000 bolivar fuerte per FRN or 3.000.000 old bolivars. A generation ago the rate was close to 3 bolivars per FRN.

The minimum salary stands at 90.000 bolivar fuerte, or 90 million old bolivars. I remember as a kid that the minimum salary was around 9000 bolivars. So the salary has increased by a factor of 10.000 or 100.000 while inflation grew by a factor of one million. 90.000 bolivar fuerte a day equals a dollar a day. Those are african-tier incomes.
These are back of the envelope, order of magnitude calculations."
Venezuela's March Toward Default | Zero Hedge

Then, there is the long-running saga known as Argentina,
"Chris Martenson: So 100%, 20% inflation; are those yearly numbers?
Fernando Aguirre: Those are our numbers in a matter of days. "
https://www.peakprosperity.com/podca...nomy-collapses
All that money printing and still the sovereign bond market won't go up. Any cessation of printing and it will go DOWN. http://www.minyanville.com/business-.../2017/id/59144

"Clawback" is a word that is coming into general use, 1/07 Dallas looks to “clawback” ill-gotten pension gains from police – Zero Hedge
GOV always understates price inflation so that bond holders think they are getting a return on their bond investments. GOV pays out a LOT of money to retirees. By understating price inflation, GOV can keep cost of living allowances COLA lower,,, and pay out less. GOV is a writhing mass of bureaucrats, lawyers and parasites. In this vid, this congresswoman excoriates the Dems because they want retirees to forgo COLA increases at the same time as Federal employees avoid any reduction.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KtQy4f39RrY

1/07 For China, there is no painless escape from debt – Stratfor
They won't say "revolution"

Academia has been VERY silent about monetary reform and the role of the FED.
"He explained that the Fed employed half the monetary economists in the U.S. and created visiting appointments for two-thirds of the rest. For Friedman, the risk was that the economics profession would be hard-pressed to ever criticize the Fed.

His prescience was remarkable. Today the institution of the Fed is as intellectually entrenched as it has ever been. It has become the largest employer of people with doctorates in economics. It has hired or contracted with more than 1,000 of these economists, who actively endeavor to validate, rather than question, orthodox theories and policies. The pipeline of talent filling new positions at the Fed is sourced from the same stagnant academic pool that produced the current leadership. "
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/artic...-the-bottom-up
"stagnant academic pool",,,, another swamp.

[Danny B]

The Eurozone's future,,, Trump's future

Germany has admitted that the whole Eurozone project has been very beneficial for them. German Vice Chancellor Says "European Break Up No Longer Unthinkable" | Zero Hedge
BUT, Italy has lost 25% of their manufacturing and is falling hard.
Beppe Grillo and 5 Star have a lot of followers.
"That is to say, we must seriously doubt if the EU -or rather, what’s left of it post-Brexit-, will live to see January 1 2018 in one piece. "
"Beppe Grillo: Whom does the money belong to? Who does its ownership belong to? To the State, fine, so to us, we are the State.
You know that the State doesn’t exist, it is only a legal entity. WE are the state, the money is ours.
Then tell me one thing: if the money belongs to us, why do they lend it to us?"

"Next week, Italy’s Beppe Grillo – the leader of the Italian Five Star Movement – will start collecting signatures with the aim of getting a referendum in Italy on leaving the euro “as soon as possible,”
"Grillo exclaims “we are dying, we need a Plan B to this Europe that has become a nightmare – and we are implementing it,” raging that “we are not at war with ISIS or Russia! We are at war with the European Central Bank,” that has stripped us of our sovereignty."

"Without Italy in the Euro, there’ll be an end to this expropriation of national sovereignty all over Europe. Sovereignty belongs to the people not to the ECB and nor does it belong to the Troika or the Bundesbank."
"We will not allow our economy to be strangled and Italian workers to become slaves to pay exorbitant interest rates to European banks.

The Euro is destroying the Italian economy. Since 1997, when Italy adjusted the value of the lira to connect it to the ECU (a condition imposed on us so that we could come into the euro), Italian industrial production has gone down by 25%."

"As Martin Armstrong asks rather pointedly…
Since the introduction of the euro, all economic parameters have deteriorated, the founder of the five-star movement in Italy is absolutely correct. The design or the Euro was a disaster. There is no fixing this any more. We have crossed the line of no return. Beppe is now calling for referendum on leaving euro. Will he be assassinated by Brussels? It is unlikely that the EU Commission will allow such a vote."
https://www.theautomaticearth.com/20...y-sense-redux/

1/08 U.S. Treasury lets private pensions slash benefits for first time in history – Birch Gold Sorry,, get used to it.
1/08 Older Americans are retiring in droves – Bloomberg That will strain the pension funds that much more.
1/08 Donald Trump’s big fat ugly bubble is ready to pop – Daily Reckoning IT IS NOT TRUMP'S BUBBLE.
1/08 Donald Trump’s big fat ugly bubble is ready to pop – Daily Reckoning
Notes; "Since the Greenspan era of Bubble Finance began in October 1987, the value of corporate equities owned by households has soared from $1.8 trillion to nearly$15 trillion, representing a 7.5%annual gain.

That means that equity values have increased 65% faster than the 4.5% annual gain in GDP during the same 29-year period."
"But the greatest headwind Trump faces is his wildly inconsistent and irresponsible fiscal program. It will not result in a smooth hand-off the “stimulus” baton from the Fed to fiscal policy and the vaunted “Trump Stimulus” as Wall Street so blithely expects.

Instead, it will actually produce a political conflagration and Fiscal Bloodbath like the Imperial City has never before witnessed. " A conflagration in the swamp???
"With the debt ceiling holiday bomb ticking toward its March 15 ignition date, the message from the beltway will become increasingly cacophonous and disconcerting."
"In short, the greatest Sucker’s Rally in history is now nearly over. And the Wall Street casino is about to feel the full brunt of the Great Disrupter — and one of an altogether different kind than that invented by the Wall Street brokers on election night."
David Stockman really knows his stuff. https://dailyreckoning.com/91423-2/

"Enter Donald Trump, the Brexit Referendum, and the rise of “populist” movements. For the entire first half of 2016, globalists were “warning” non-stop that a rise in populism (conservatives and sovereignty champions) would result in international financial catastrophe. It was as if they KNEW that the Brexit would succeed and that Donald Trump would win the election…

This has been my position for the past half year — that globalists were planning to allow conservative and sovereignty movements to take the reins of power, that they would allow the passage of the Brexit and the rise of Trump, just before they pull the plug on the system’s life support."
The False Economic Recovery Narrative Will Die In 2017
This article is about the planned demolition of the economy and our forced use of the SDR.

[Danny B]

Basic monthly income,,,, shrinking the population

It's pretty obvious that there just isn't enough money circulating in the lower loop of the economy. It got sucked into the upper loop. Those in the upper loop are thinking of ways to reflate the lower loop without people quitting their jobs.
One proposal is to deposit $ 80,000 in every bank account. Nobody can predict ALL the effects of this. Then, there is the idea of a basic monthly income.
Finland to Pay Unemployed Basic Income of $587 Per Month - ABC

Forbes; "what Finland is doing is testing out the core idea of a universal basic income. Instead of paying welfare benefits conditional upon circumstances, like being unemployed, or having too little an income, why not just pay people a set minimum? Not a huge amount, to be sure, but enough to just keep body and soul together. And make it unconditional. Doesn’t matter whether you look for work, get a job, earn a high income, we just have a system whereby the very basics of life are guaranteed to be affordable."

Then, there is the idea of a basic minimum income; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guaran...d_basic_income

We have hit a global-mean-wage and there is just no way to escape it. Philippines is a State with a huge teenage pregnancy problem and very high poverty. The standard of living is; the GDP divided by the population. The high birth rate States will always have a lot of people who are willing to work for very low wages.
In the more responsible populations, people cut back their reproduction as their resources dwindle. BUT, our economic system based on credit can not survive a shrinking population.
There are a lot of nay-sayers who are vehemently against a basic minimum income. What they don't seem to take into account is that GOV is already distributing a lot of money to the poor.

"In FY 2017 total US government spending on welfare — federal, state, and local — is “guesstimated” to be $1,127 billion, including $646 billion for Medicaid, and $481 billion in other welfare."
US Welfare Spending for 2017 - Charts
There is also the claim that welfare takes away the incentive to work or even look for work.
"A 2015 study by the University of California at Berkeley found that states and the federal government spent $152.8 billion a year on food stamps, health insurance, and cash assistance programs, more than half of it going to working families who were having trouble making ends meet."

The fractional-reserve, credit-money system can't survive with a falling population. Without the confidence of a guaranteed basic monthly income, responsible people will not have children. The irresponsible people seem OK bringing children into a life of poverty.
"In 2012, an average of 41.6% of African Americans received means-tested benefits each month. About 18% of Asians or Pacific Islanders and 13% of whites received benefits each month. Thirty-six percent of Hispanics of any race received government assistance"
Who’s on Welfare? 9 Shocking Stats About Public Assistance

" Among the various criticisms it receives, one of the most recurrent is the assertion that it could discourage the search for employment, encouraging laziness of people. Under this premise, many people would give up trying to find a job, content, instead, to live on the Bolsa Família program.[8][9] The Catholic Church, through its powerful National Conference of Bishops of Brazil (CNBB), maintains[10][11] that "the program is addictive" and leads its beneficiaries to an "accommodation".

This, however, is not what the World Bank finds. Having conducted several surveys on the subject, the World Bank came to the conclusion that the program does not discourage work, nor social ascension. On the contrary, says Bénédicte de la Bričre, responsible for the program monitoring at the institution:

"Adult work is not impacted by income transfers. In some cases adults will even work harder because having this safety net encourages them to assume greater risks in their activities"
Basic income has been tried in Brazil with some success.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_in_Brazil

If "they" want us to have responsible children, they have to pay us a decent wage. If "they" only want warm bodies to populate the State, "They" can just keep us at a global mean wage.
Another facet of GOV transfer payments; all those people on GOV payroll to shuffle papers to each other should be included on the welfare rolls. 51% of Americans receive a check from GOV. How many are actually productive? GOV writes 80 million checks a month. What about all the money spent on jets that won't fly and new ships that just don't work. How much of the military budget is welfare for the employees of vendors and sub-contractors?

While it would be nice if every person was responsible and had a job, there just isn't any possibility of that. We dumb-down the education system and automate everything. FED GOV tends to direct much of it's largess to educated people. 1 out of every 11 in the beltway is a lawyer. Everybody is doing feasibility studies for GOV.

So, how many children are we going to have? Who is going to pay for them?
This, of course, conjures up the spirit of racial culling. Nothing new there.
"According to the 2010 census, 79 percent of Planned Parenthood’s surgical abortion facilities are located within walking distance of black or Hispanic neighborhoods.

Some 59 million abortions have been performed in the country since the Supreme Court’s Roe v. Wade decision in 1973, nearly 18 million of them on black babies. As Breitbart News has reported, the Alan Guttmacher Institute also provided data showing that about 30 percent of all abortions in the U.S. are performed on black women, with another 25 percent performed on Hispanic women."
"Perhaps the most stirring statistic comes from New York City, where more black babies are aborted than are born."
“Forty percent of black babies have been given to the altar of abortion,”
Story of Planned Parenthood Founder Margaret Sanger Heading to Big Screen - Breitbart

The credit-money system can't work with a falling population. A State with a rising population Can't maintain a decent standard of living. 650 million people in India practice open defecation. The aquifers in India and Pakistan are falling fast. They need to do something soon. The bond market crash and grand-reset are going to bring down everything. When credit dies, whole populations are going to die at the same time.

[Danny B]

36 year bond bull market,,, Jim Willie

Greenspan started it and others continued it. Currency inflation from the CB assured investors that the FED had their back. The FED erased moral hazard and spiked the punch. Markets would go up without limit.
"The backdrop: after 36 years of bond bull market, the amount of US bonds has ballooned to $47 trillion, up 24% from just ten years ago:

US Treasurys ($19.8 trillion),
Municipal bonds ($3.8 trillion)
Mortgage related bonds ($8.9 trillion)
Corporate bonds ($8.6 trillion)
Federal Agency bonds ($2 trillion)
Money Markets ($2.6 trillion)
Asset backed Securities ($1.3 trillion)
There were never any corrections allowed. Since debt is rising faster than exponentially, the eventual correction will be profound.
How Bad Will the “Bond Massacre” Get? | Wolf Street

Jim Willie has a real ear-full of news.
" Free money distorts all asset prices. History has no example of a nation which had covered its debt via monetization without a disaster, and the United States will be no different. "

"the USGovt and its banker controllers would ultimately defend the USDollar with the heavy hand of war. In 2005 the South Koreans announced a plan to diversify part of their sizeable reserves out of the USTBonds, and were promptly shown naval exercises off their coastline as a harsh resounding message. "
"In 2003, the Iraq nation was illicitly invaded under the pretext of fighting terrorism. The real sin was selling oil for Euro currencies. "
"Iran later persisted in selling oil for non-USD payment, and was promptly treated to painful sanctions. The entire Syrian War has a motive to obstruct the Iran Gas Pipeline, which would supply Europe with natural gas, and likely not be paid for in USD terms"
"In 2012, the Russians were cut off at the knees, using their Cyprus bank connection to dump USTreasury Bonds and to purchase Gold bullion."

" When the USDollar no longer acts as global currency reserve, the United States Govt will be forced to launch a new domestic Dollar. That is exactly when the crisis hits a crescendo, the American public awaken, and the chaos hits historical levels. It would mean the free pass is no longer in effect. The entire USEconomy will take on a national emergency objective to export as much as possible in order to relieve the trade deficit. New industries will spring up, with stated objective to export. The USEconomy will finally face deep shortages, along with higher prices."

"A key requirement to facilitate the march toward the global fascist state is a ruinous series of economies. Thus the Jackass has concluded that most Western nations enact policy that wrecks their economies in profound sabotage. The interested observers can refer to destructive monetary policy (see QE), bone headed fiscal policy (see Obama Stimulus Plan), outsourced industry (begun by Intel in 1984), high US corporate tax rates, constant crisis, endless social conflict, blurred national boundaries, and the kicker in millions of units in Arab Human Garbage influx. The architets for the NWO have been the Trilateral Commission in concert with the Rockefeller Foundation, the Bush Narco Family, and the banker cabal in control of central banks, operating in concert with the military defense industry. "

" The genocide plan has numerous sides. Several months ago, the Jackass offered a detailed list of the earth ruin and human culling within the Hat Trick Letter report. It goes far beyond bond fraud, monetary ruin, narcotics trade, endless war, and other devious established practices. Most people cannot conceive of the human species committing suicide."
Crisis, Dullards And Wake-up Call

Spreading democracy with explosives; 72 Bombs a Day - How the U.S. Spreads Democracy and Freedom : Waking Times

1/09 Record 95.1 million Americans not in the labor force – My Budget 360
1/09 The growing threat to global trade: a currency war – Barron’s Stupid people write stupid headlines. The currency war has been going on for years. If a country "wins" the currency war (temporarily), then, they have massive capital outflows. These become self-reinforcing. If a country loses a currency war, their export sector loses profitability.

[Danny B]

The value of fiat currency

There is no end to the people who claim that the dollar will go to ZERO. It just isn't that simple.
Charles Hugh Smith, " If we refuse to recognize the high utility value of USD and its global ease of flow, then we will continue to misunderstand the demand for the dollar and its appreciation.
I have covered the many reasons why the U.S. dollar (USD) has strengthened in dozens of posts over the past 5 years"
"The USD (as measured by the US Dollar Index) has gained almost 40% from 73 in 2011 to 102 recently" This isn't exactly gain. The other currencies have just fallen faster. The price of gold shows what the real price of the dollar is.
"Capital also migrates to relatively safe havens that are liquid and offer low transaction/holding costs, and to forms of capital with global utility.
Lastly, capital flows to the highest yield/return with the lowest perceived risk." (confidence)
"Why Don’t the U.S. Dollar and Bitcoin Have Zero Value?"
" The answer boils down to utility-driven demand. If, as David Graeber discussed in his book Debt: The First 5,000 Years, notched sticks are needed to pay one’s taxes, then notched sticks are in demand because they have an essential utility; notched sticks acquire value (i.e. become “money”) if you can pay debts (such as taxes) with them.
As long as they retain this utility, they retain the value ascribed to them by the system that recognizes (or demands) payment of taxes in the form of notched sticks.
A notched stick has near-zero tangible value. Its value is entirely a social construct, as a placeholder for the goods and services produced by labor and capital." "It frustrates many observers that the U.S. dollar stubbornly refuses to drop to its intrinsic value, i.e. zero. This peculiar resistance melts away once we understand that state-issued currency ("money") is ultimately a claim on the issuing nation’s wealth and capacity to generate wealth, and on the state’s ability to collect taxes from the residents and enterprises that are generating the wealth."

"In other words, the value of state-issued currencies is not based on a tangible commodity such as gold but on the wealth generation capacity of the nation and the state’s power to skim that wealth as taxes, which can then be used to pay state debts."
" If the state issues 10 new units of currency in alignment with economy’s expansion, the issuance will not devalue the existing stock of currency because the new “money” is in essence backed by new wealth in the form of goods, services and capital. Our debt is growing at 3 times the rate that the GDP (isn't) growing.
The expectation that fiat currencies (state-issued “money” that is not backed by a store of tangible commodities) should all decline to zero because they have no tangible value makes sense only if we ignore non-tangible sources of value."

"The wealth of a nation is tangible, and so is the state’s power to collect taxes to pay its debts. These are as tangible as gold once we realize that demand creates value, whether we consider it intrinsic or a social construct."
"Once we understand that demand creates value, then the source of the demand matters more than our assessment of what is "intrinsic."
"Those who focus on the scarcity value of gold to back a currency are overlooking the equally potent means of exchange sources of demand. Scarcity (supply) is only half the equation—ultimately, demand drives value."
" In other words, the U.S. dollar is not just the currency Americans need to pay their taxes, or the currency used in the U.S.—it is a form of relatively predictable, highly liquid capital with low transaction/storage costs that is the collateral for the holding nation’s own currency and debt issuance."

"If we refuse to recognize the high utility value of USD and its global ease of flow, then we will continue to misunderstand the demand for the dollar and its appreciation."
oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith: Why Don't the U.S. Dollar and Bitcoin Drop to Their Tangible Value, i.e. Zero?

The PBOC, BOJ and ECB have been printing with wild abandon. The FED has been far more restrained. Jim Willie claims that the FED is printing LOTS more than it lets on. As long as this isn’t publicly known, the FED can claim to be responsible. The FED is "losing" the currency war. BUT, it is gaining an influx of capital. This hurts exports but, extends the period in history that the dollar is regarded as the go-to currency. The dollar is also very much in demand because of it's historical position as the reserve currency.

So, the dollar is a fractional claim on the wealth of America. It is the only accepted medium for paying taxes. But, as we get poorer, fewer and fewer people are paying taxes. 51% of Americans Pay No Federal Income Taxes - The Atlantic
Fewer and fewer people are working, Fed's Labor Market Conditions Index Plunges Most In 7 Years | Zero Hedge
1/09 Record 95.1 million Americans not in the labor force – My Budget 360
https://cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/amp.t...life-insurance Another brick in the wall.

Dollar vs gold; http://www.freegrab.net/Decline%20in...aper-money.jpg
Purchasing power vs quantity of money in circulation; http://static.safehaven.com/authors/hewitt/12703_a.png
We've had non-stop inflation so that those closest to the money spigot can live very well without producing anything. On a gold standard, there is no money spigot. As the wealth of America diminishes, the "money" issuance increases.
Gold is money but, it isn't currency. Trade needs a very efficient currency.