Economic pressures

[BroMikey]

FAKE NEWS

Donald Trump invented all things crisis.

[VIDEO]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xjq1H7wLTwo[/VIDEO]

[Danny B]

More unraveling

Armstrong has a couple of interesting articles.
"ANSWER: Trump’s tariffs are not intended to prevent China from rising. Rather, they are intended to open up China. The rise of China will come by turning inward to develop their own consumer market. The mercantilist model employed by Germany may have made Germany the biggest economy, but its people have not shared in that rise. This is the difference between an export model and a domestic model. The U.S. is the biggest economy and everyone wants to sell to America because it has the largest consumer market.'
I'm somewhat dubious about all this.

Are U.S. banks safe?
"ANSWER: U.S. banks will probably be safe in general for the next two years. Just anything you put in a bank, do not lock it in long-term. Stay short-term — 2021 is where things start to go nuts.

As far as good equities, we will be in a position to look at that next year. As far as places, look at Texas or Florida. Florida has the better place for housing (homestead). Also, there is a high concentration of retired people in Florida. That provides greater resistance to dramatic changes."
a high concentration... of hurricanes.

Trump is trying to extend out the "good times" until after the 2020 election. He (we) aren't going to make it that far. The middle-class is on the ropes. The latest storms and flooding will make it much worse. New storms are due this week. Part of the problem is; communication is SO FAST that sentiment and confidence can turn on a dime.

"Game over. The grand central bank experiment of the last 10 years has ended in utter and complete failure. The games of cheap money and constant intervention that have brought you record global debt to the tune of $250 trillion and record wealth inequality are about to embark on a new round of peddling blue meth again."
"Absolutely staggering. We are witnessing a historic unraveling here. Everything every central banker has uttered last year was completely wrong. Every projection they made over the last 10 years has been wrong."
"All the distortions of 10 years of cheap money, debt, wealth inequality, zombie companies, negative debt, TINA, you name it, will all be further exacerbated by hapless and scared central bankers whose only solution to failure is to embark on the same cheap money train again. All under the banner to “extend the business cycle” at all costs. Never asking whether they should nor considering the consequences. "

"This is not capitalism, nor does this ongoing farce constitute free market price discovery. It’s politburo based central planning, desperately trying to keep the balls in the air.

“To extend the business cycle” Jay Powell stated this week. Since when is this the primary purpose of the Fed? "
"Between 2008-2019 the Fed was non-accommodative for 3 months. It blew up in their faces in December. They’ll never be non accommodative again. They can’t."
That's what you get when you sniff glue.
https://northmantrader.com/2019/06/07/game-over-2/
The article has GREAT Graphs that tell you everything.

"In a telephone interview broadcast on CNBC Trump said that additional tariffs on Chinese goods will go into effect immediately if China’s President Xi Jinping does not attend the upcoming G20 meeting."
https://www.rt.com/business/461522-t...na-tariffs-us/
Fracking;
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...d-ink-us-shale
6/10 Tulsi Gabbard pushes no war agenda – and the media is out to kill her chances – SC
6/10 A ‘’gusher of red ink’’ for U.S. shale – Oil Pric
Russia's energy minister does not rule out that oil prices could fall to $30 per barrel

[Danny B]

.Immigrants & pension funds,,,Zombies keep the economy going

The contraction and reset have long been predicted. Trump has abandoned / ignored all the diplomatic niceties that functioned to make international markets predictable, if not stable. He is trying to stretch out the good times until the next election. He's not going to make it but, he may lesson the impact. This is what he is fighting.
"Here is one example as to why the Fed is so deathly afraid of a recession. Wisdom Tree and Factset did a study on Zombie companies. They are defined as those with current trailing 12-month interest expenses that exceed the average of the past three years of earnings before interest and taxes. That number is now just under 23%, which is much higher than the 13% rate that what was evident in 2007 just prior to the Great Recession.

To put this in perspective, nearly 1/4 of firms in the Russell 2000 don't even make enough money to service their debt much less pay back the debt"
https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2...l-Weapons.html
You should read the whole, article.

Almost ALL wealth today is denominated as debt. You can call this debt a house-of-cards or, maybe, a chain. The fundamentals today are far worse that they were in the runup to the 2008 crash. The PPT, ESF, FED and, Treasury are all working overtime trying to keep ANY links in the chain from breaking. As the 90% of the population saw their earning power destroyed by the bankers, the lower loop of the economy cut WAY back on consumption.
The solution to the economic slowdown was; offer more credit. This worked up to a point. Debt saturation and default lessened the profitability of increased credit (debt) generation. The economic system is COMPLETELY incompatible with shrinking consumption / debt creation.
There is ZERO realization of what the core problem is. The bankers robbed us so, we can't afford to have children.
Here are 3 articles about the flood of immigrants.

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2...ing-americans/
https://capitalistexploits.at/the-re...sis-in-europe/
Good graphs;
https://www.axios.com/newsletters/ax...chunk=0#story0

Here is an interview with a guy with a really impressive CV.
"CG: What do you identify as the main contributing factors that led to this upcoming pension crisis and what does it mean for the future?

CAG: Some say we should blame contraceptive techniques for the decline of birth rates in Germany, as the core reason of unsustainable second-generation magnitudes. However, I think this explanation is missing the mark. We should instead be looking at the root of the problem, namely at the motivation patterns that this compulsory system creates for all its participants. This view will lead us to different findings: Human beings tend to become complacent (and, as a rule, rather too comfortable) as soon as they sense a chance to profit from certain circumstances that they do not have to create or support themselves but that exist nevertheless.

From this perspective, that can be seen as a form of the “free-rider syndrome”. The public pension system has established a gigantic contract at the expense of third parties: One can later profit from children and their contributions into the community coffer without first investing into it by parenting them. The whole system, however, blatantly disregards the essential “privity of contract” principle, which stipulates that a contract cannot confer rights or impose obligations upon any person who is not a party to it in the first place."

So, you count on future payments from children that you don't plan to create. It's a very good article but I think that he diminishes the role of poverty and birth control too much.
INTERVIEW WITH CARLOS A. GEBAUER – PART I | Claudio Grass

Armstrong, "Gold will be the hedge against political uncertainty and government ONLY when the people reach that critical point of losing faith in government. We are at the 35% level where people believe the government is the number one problem. When that crosses the 45% mark, things will start to become different."
Germany is a very poor place to rely on solar power.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...-energiewende/

Armstrong, Property taxes in Calgary have increased as much as 400%.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...ry-is-closing/
The State takes that attitude that taxpayers are an inexhaustible source of funding.
Socialism kills productivity by removing motivation. There are different ways to accomplish this.

Armstrong writes about how the rich make their money.
"ANSWER: There are always exceptions, but those who receive big bonuses or high wages such as sports and movie stars are a tiny fraction of what they call the “rich.” The “rich” are defined as households with income in excess of $250,000. The “rich” who have built wealth from creating businesses and investment are really 99% of that class. "
You see the obvious fallacy. The rich are NOT creating new businesses because aggregate consumptive power is steadily falling. The so-called investments of the rich are (94%) dependent on the FED creating new money to keep the rich going.

ALL these zombie businesses that are floating on hot money fulfil just ONE purpose.
They keep people employed.
Here is an article about all the $trillions wasted by the military.
https://www.nestmann.com/how-to-lose-21-trillion
Once again, this is about jobs.

[Danny B]

A big mess as far as the eye can see.

There is a lot going on. I'll try to keep the reading to a minimum. I'll start with Armstrong.
First, you must keep in mind why the State went off the gold standard. The gold standard just does NOT allow the flexibility for expansion of the money supply that a perpetually-growing government must have. U.S. GOV spends about 32% of the GDP. This is 57% in France. GOV creates new money to pay it's bills. This continuous expansion of the money supply causes price inflation. This is called the "inflation-tax".
For 2019, Americans worked until April 15 to pay their direct taxes. The rest of the time, we paid the "inflation tax".
France has long exceeded the debt-to-GDP limits spelled out by the ECB but, nobody says anything because "France is France.

Armstrong, "ANSWER: Governments have often resorted to forced loans. When Italy was in trouble, they took 90-day paper and converted it to 10-year paper. Most people are clueless about the German hyperinflation. They assume it was due to the government printing money. The spark was December 1922 when the government confiscated 10% of everyone’s property and handed them bonds as a forced loan. Confidence completely collapsed at that moment.
This is all part of the process of the decline in confidence in the government. This is why the system is unsustainable. We will be heading into a great monetary crisis very soon."
You can see that the inflation tax is only possible if there is no gold standard.

Armstrong, "For example, take a government bond may be characterized as a “no-risk asset” and given a zero percent risk weighting. On the other hand, a subprime mortgage may be classified as a high-risk asset and weighted 65%. So Basel III considering government debt as “no-risk” is a little foolish when we look into the years ahead.

Gold will offer a neutral bank with respect to government debt holdings, but it will still not provide a stable base of an asset since it will fluctuate rather than the immediate currency base. Gold will offer a hedge against sovereign debt among European banks more so than America."
Those European banks were required top buy State debt. "NO risk" is just a big joke.

Everybody knows that the CBs are the only ones buying the sovereign debt.
"However, from the government side of the table, the Sovereign Debt Crisis is among the developed countries engaging in QE that has unfolded as there is NO BID. They can artificially keep rates low ONLY because the central banks buy the debt. Nobody in the private sector would buy 10 years paper at 1% to 3% when they need 8% to break even in pension funds."
OK, so the CB buys the federal debt.
"Also, pay attention to the state/provincial debt where they do not have the ability to buy their own nonsense. The manipulation of rates will be at the federal level, not in the state/provincial and municipal levels of government.
So, pay attention to the bifurcation in rates that is unfolding between PUBLIC v PRIVATE."

Armstrong claims that there will be a huge interest rate disparity between public and private debt. QE will be institutionalized as MMT. There won't be an interest rate for SOVEREIGN FEDERAL debt. What Armstrong mentions and then, MISSES is that public debt below the federal level (state/provincial) will crash for lack of a printing press.

Armstrong again, "Look at the British pound during the American Civil War. It was the rally in the pound that began the breakup of the British Empire, as I have warned will happen to the US dollar. That rise in the pound exported DEFLATION to the British Empire and the economic conditions led to the start of separatist movements. Canada won its independence on July 1, 1867. The second major wave of separatist movements came with the end of World War II. India won its independence on August 15, 1947.

The United States will be at risk of also breaking apart under economic conditions, which will fuel both the religious and political battles between left and right. There will be a high probability that the United States will break into regional groups, probably four major regions in general. "

Japan seems to be the test-case for just how much money the State can create. Keep in mind that this "money" is created as debt. They haven't had hyperinflation so, it looks like America is going to follow their example.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...cord-month-may

When Spain received the New World gold, they got hyperinflation. Apparently, when you create new debt money, you don't get hyperinflation.
BUT, that doesn't mean that everything is smooth sailing.
https://www.americanthinker.com/blog...ne_glance.html

Italy is flat broke. They are going to create a parallel currency. The ECB and EU say that they will fine Italy Billions of Euros if they do that. I suspect that any such fine would motivate Italy to tell Brussels to GET STUFFED.
https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/econo...k2eydQlYq4pkw/

if the millennials go to college, they end up with unpayable student loans. If they do not go to college , they end up with LOW wages.
https://www.studyfinds.org/millennia...ic-conditions/

6/14 A Morgan Stanley economic indicator just suffered a record collapse – CNBC
Whenever stocks go down if is a BUYING OPPORTUNITY. BUY the dip. No longer. You can see why Armstrong's model is a confidence model.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...swer-one-chart
In previous downturns, the FED has cut rates to rescue the markets. This is very short-lived and, further cuts are needed. Powell tried to raise rates starting December so that, he could cut them later on. Well, it didn't work out that way. As soon as he raised rates a bit, the markets tanked. Markets are expecting a cut as soon as July. Will we eventually go to negative rates? Who knows?
https://northmantrader.com/2019/06/13/curious-charts/

6/14 Gundlach: “45% odds of a recession in the next 6 months” – Zero Hedge
The current recession started December of 2018 when Powell raised rates..

6/13 Oil drops again on surging supplies – CNBC
6/14 Tanker attacks reignite oil fear premium, prices could spike to $80 – CNBC
Oil was headed down to $40,,, maybe even $30. All of a sudden, we see all these bogus tanker attacks. Haliburton is hard at work creating price support for oil.
6/13 Auto demand facing a ‘sustained downturn’ in world’s two biggest markets – Bloomberg
6/13 China auto sales just posted their worst month ever – Talk Markets
6/13 This is one of the worst risk/reward setups in history – Felder Report
As Charles Prince said, "we have to keep dancing as long as the music is playing"
6/13 Federal spending tops $3 trillion through May for first time; deficit hits $738 billion – CNS
6/13 For countless Americans, living in their vehicles has become “the new normal” – EOTAD
Beats living in a tent down by the river.
6/13 A $45 billion public works plan and what does Illinois get? deeper in debt – CT
Infrastructure spending may be good for jobs but, it isn't an investment, per se.

It is obvious that the millennials are dead broke and, can't support the housing market. So, give them a hand(out)
6/14 Bill would cancel most of the country’s outstanding student loan debt – CNBC
6/13 Debate over Brexit fee: would nonpayment constitute default? Who owes whom? – Mish
Tell Brussels to GET STUFFED.

[Danny B]

Various slowmotion crashes

Armstrong, "
Chinese Industrial output numbers were released today and show a growth rate of 5%. T
his is the lowest rate of growth in 17 years, showing the strain the U.S. trade tariffs are likely having on the Chinese economy.
A former Chinese central bank governor has warned that the trade war can cause financial chaos, "
Several years ago, the FED raised interest rates by 1/4 % This set off the Asian crisis,,,, which spread to Russia,,, brought down the Russian bond market,,,, brought LTCM. LTCM was so leveraged that it threatened to bring down the entire financial system. ALL the big banks ponied up $millions to save the system. Bear Stearns refused to contribute. 18 years later Bear Stearns was executed in the 2007 crash.
LTCM had 3 Nobel laureates on their board. These three assured the company that their strategy was so perfect, it couldn't lose money in twice the life of the universe.
BTW, Paul Krugman said that the internet would have no more effect on the economy than the FAX machine.
This Chinese GDP number includes ENORMOUS mountains of new debt added to the figures. Their exports are down,,, rail car loadings down, Imports, down BUT, they grew at 5%

Here is a topic that I posted before; Wealth-to-GDP
In America, this ratio has ALWAYS reverted to the mean. Will it do so this time around?
"Asset prices have grown much faster than GDP for many years but, in the very long run, one cannot outgrow the other. This is embedded in economic growth theory, which dictates that national income is shared between capital and labour in a certain way. The ratio is not exactly the same from country to country (it depends on the efficiency of capital), but in most countries about 2/3 of national income goes towards labour and 1/3 to capital."
So, will asset prices unwind?
"One implication of this is that wealth-to-GDP is also long term stable. In the US the mean over the last 150+ years is about 3.5x. At present wealth-to-GDP is 4.85x, suggesting that US wealth will fall dramatically in the years to come."
In Japan, the CB bought up more than 70% of exchange traded funds,,, along with tons of other assets. In the EU, Mario Draghi buys up whatever garbage nobody wants. It seems that; the CBs are trying to compensation for the deflation caused by falling wages and falling population with,,,, currency inflation.

Pox Americana are trying to shove expensive American natural gas down the throats of the EU. We are trying very hard to block the Nordstream pipeline. The Germans especially are very sick and tired of this. BUT, the EU needs to dollars to service dollar-denominated debt. The FED can hold them hostage for dollar liquidity. The EU is in the process of sidelining the U.S. dollar for energy imports.
https://sputniknews.com/business/201...-transactions/

You Canuks seem to spend very well compared to Yanks.
https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/up...US-2019-q1.png
https://wolfstreet.com/2019/06/13/th...n-debt-slaves/
Hope that y'all like caribou burgers.

There are mountains of data proving that wages are static as prices go up.
"The median earnings for 25-year-old millennial men who have a high school degree or less are $29,000 a year, about $2,600 less than Gen Xers and about $10,000 less than baby boomers at the same age."
https://www.studyfinds.org/millennia...ic-conditions/
Now, you have the numbers.
6/09 Millennials are unable to save the California housing market – Dr. Housing Bubble


"As you can see, U.S. financial markets have been rigged for at least three decades. But what do you expect in a fake money system where expediency takes priority? One expedient after another, year after year, decade after decade, has devised a system of chaos."
https://acting-man.com/?p=54440

http://icecapassetmanagement.com/wp-...al-Outlook.pdf
"What the central banks and their supporters do not tell you, is that
the actions to save one crisis, have always sowed the seeds for the
next crisis."
"In early 1997, the US Federal Reserve increased overnight interest
rates by 0.25%. Now on the surface, this tiny increase may not seem
like the tiger killer – but it was."
"At the time, the US Federal Reserve was trying to somewhat reduce
the extreme level of exuberance in US stock markets.
What it actually managed to reduce was the entire Asian currency
and bond markets."

"Put another way, the global financial system received such a jolt from
the breaking of the Tech Bubble – the Federal Reserve had to provide
more stimulus than what was ever provided in financial history. First they bailed out entire banking sectors.
Of course, this record would be shattered again in less than 4 years. Then they proceeded to print over $14 Trillion dollars.
Notice how each financial crisis, required increasingly more financial
stimulus to bailout the losses and help the world get back on track. Finally some central banks (Japan, Eurozone, Switzerland, Denmark,
and Sweden) cut interest rates below 0% - or put another way, they created NEGATIVE interest rates.
Also notice the pattern – every single time a crisis occurred, it was put in motion by central banks and their reaction to the previous crisis"

European Bank Stocks are down 80% since 2008 and are now back at levelsfirst reached in the 1980s.
Capital flight is eating them up.
"IMF: “PLEASE STOP RAISING RATES. SINCE THE LAST CRISIS, EMERGING
MARKET COUNTRIES HAVE BORROWED IN USD EXCESSIVELY.
EVERYTIME THE USD STRENGTHENS, IT WEAKENS EVERYONE ELSE."
"We already know, 0%, negative% and money printing cannot produce
enough economic growth to exceed interest payments and debt
rollovers."

Thankfully, MANY States now have long-range hypersonic weapons. They can bypass both the soldiers and the battlefields. They can shoot straight at the politicians who merrily send US off to die. The politicians are how in a great quandary about HOW to conduct a war.
https://www.rt.com/news/461727-us-new-way-war-cnas/

All the conditions lend themselves to moving the battlefield off-planet. That restriction would last about 10 minutes and then, bombardment from Space would commence,,, AGAIN https://www.naturalnews.com/050816_T...taliation.html

"The nearly $100 trillion increase in global debt since the beginning of the Great Financial Crisis is an unprecedented act. It was also an act of faith. One rooted in the idea that global GDP growth would come along and save the day,"
"In the US, the entire collective pile – debts plus IOU’s – worked out to a staggering 1100% of GDP in 2017. That’s ~300% for debt and 800% for the underfunded liabilities."
https://www.peakprosperity.com/waiti...he-black-swan/

6/16 Trade war with India starts: how Trump is winning the global war in 10 tweets – Mish
6/16 Japan to issue record $34bn in bonds in April-June – Nikkei
6/15 Meanwhile, over on planet Japan – Sovereign Man
6/16 Corporations discover that once-coveted millennials are a “screwed generation” – ZH
6/16 JPMorgan: “significant risk” is coming next week… and nobody is prepared – ZH

6/15 FAANG companies facing impacts from imminent antitrust probe – Birch Gold
They attacked the conservatives with absolute impunity,,,, think that they had absolute immunity.
The social justice warriors believe that; because their cause is noble, ANY means to destroy others is fair & honorable. The courts do NOT agree.
https://kunstler.com/cluster****-nat...rt/#more-10495'
6/15 Many Americans say their finances are worse since the Great Recession – CNBC The great recession was put on hold for the rich ONLY.

6/15 Misplaced pride: most of the “middle class” is actually working class – CHS
YES, we work. They need to keep us poor or NOTHING WOULD GET DONE.
6/16 King dollar rides higher creating pressures on foreign economies – Technical Traders
MAGA, baby,,,, crash all those foreign CBs
15 years ago, America had 5 times the retail space per person as France had. We went broke.
6/15 Moody’s cuts rating on Destiny USA Mall bonds to junk – NRI Online
6/14 Carnival Cruise ship fleet pollutes almost 10 times more than all cars in Europe – Drive
The team found that the fertilizer industry results in 29 gigagrams of methane emissions a year. The EPA, however, reports this industry emitted only 0.2 gigagrams of methane a year
https://earther.gizmodo.com/just-one...a-h-1835376030

India may slap retaliatory tariffs on American goods ahead of Pompeo's visit next week
Let the bodies hit the floor.

[Danny B]

Bumps and bubbles everywhere

The FED controls dollar liquidity and, can shaft any State that does not follow U.S. policy. Pox Americana does not care what happens to non-Americans.
The non-Americans are making new arrangements to escape dollar hegemony.
https://sputniknews.com/business/201...-transactions/
Escaping the dollar also means escaping the American controlled IMF.
Foreign banks willing to join Russia’s alternative to SWIFT
https://www.rt.com/business/461958-f...-russia-swift/

Meanwhile, the war hawks are trying to drum up a big war against Iran.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said the United States would no longer grant oil waivers to China and India, Iran’s two largest customers.
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/2...usted-in-iran/
The countries that need Iranian oil.
"In any case, the oil weapon has proven to be an ineffective instrument in the past, for both producers and consumers. Both sides are always dependent on one another, with the producers needing the money and the consumers needing the fuel. "
https://www.spiegel.de/international...-808033-2.html
Dubai (CNN Business)Asia's biggest economies are scrambling to find new sources of oil after the United States said it would no longer grant exemptions to sanctions on Iranian crude exports.

In other news;
French Billionaires Waffle On Notre Dame Rebuild As US Donors Foot The Bill
As I recall, Americans rescued the leaning tower of Pisa when it accelerated it's fall.
Bernie Plagiarizes Stalin With 'Economic Bill Of Rights'
You just can't guarantee a job for everyone. We spent the last 150 years inventing labor-saving devices.
As I've laid out many times before, the nature of the corporation is completely anti-human.
https://www.rt.com/news/461956-chris...rporate-power/
Ocasio criticizes Bezos for paying Amazon workers 'starvation wages'
So, the humans are complaining. Get more robots.

Entertainment; In the opening monologue on her Saturday night FOX News show, Jeanine Pirro railed against former FBI director James Comey, accusing him of running his own "crime family" and attempting to stage a "bloodless coup" against President Trump.

"They're not going quietly into the night, It will be a joy to watch," Pirro began in her opening segment Saturday evening. "Grab your popcorn, Junior Mints or whatever makes you happy. The real show is about to begin. This will be true reality TV. No scripts, no rehearsals, just a gang of criminals pointing fingers at each other to save their own hides. A version of true crime and the reality show Survivor. The deep state exposed."
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/vi...lclearpolitics

There may be a robocop in your future.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...d-issue-ticket

Headlines;
6/17 All eyes on Fed as stock market pines for rate cut – Reuters
6/17 Midwest floods: Illinois farmers give up on planting and throw party – CNBC
6/17 Deutsche Bank to set up 50 billion euro bad bank – US News
Deutsche bank IS the bad bank.
Apr 17, 2019 - A derivatives book of $49 trillion notional puts Deutsche Bank
After a $354 Billion U.S. Bailout, Germany's Deutsche Bank Still Has big problems.
6/16 Inspired by Deutsche Bank death spiral, EU banks sink to Dec 24, 2018 level – WS

50 billion euro is chicken feed
6/17 The copper:gold ratio is one of the untold wonders of market analysis – MunKnee
6/17 The coming perfect storm for 2019 recession – GRB
6/16 The growing risk of a 2020 recession and crisis – Nouriel Roubini

6/16 Morgan Stanley: the idea that “bad is now good” is ludicrous – Zero Hedge
6/16 India to impose retaliatory tariffs on 28 U.S. goods from Sunday – Reuters
6/16 “Catastrophic,” Trump’s tariff threat has retailers sounding alarm – NY Times

6/17 Former PBOC head warns trade war can trigger competitive devaluation – Gulf Times
It's not that simple.
6/17 Bitcoin is an insult to gambling – NY Post
6/17 Bitcoin is a bet against gold, not fiat currencies, precious metals proponent argues – BE
6/17 House prices nationwide are tipped to soar by 20% over the next four years – Stuff
Want to bet on that?
More Than 1 Million Americans Will Be Priced Out Of The Housing ...
https://www.forbes.com/.../more-than...d-out-of-the-h...

Jan 10, 2019 - According to new data from the National Association of Home Builders, a mere $1,000 increase in the nation's median home price would price 127,650 households out of the market. If mortgage rates rise just 25 basis points — from 4.75% to 5%, for example — then another 1 million will be priced out as well.

6/15 Unhealthy foods damage brain earlier in life than first thought – News.au
You see that a lot in politicians.
6/16 Pentagon keeps Trump in the dark about its cyber attacks on Russia – RS
6/16 U.S. escalates online attacks on Russia’s power grid – NY Times
6/15 Beijing yields to Hong Kong’s financial clout – Reuters
Beijing claimed that they could extradite anybody they want from Hong Kong. Millions protested. Hong Kong controls a LOT of money.

Here is an excellent graph from a very good article.
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-...ance-sheet.jpg
"

The speculative asset chase over the last decade, which is a direct result of Central Bank activity, has locked investors into a period of near zero prospective total returns in virtually in every asset class for the coming decade.

Read that again.

The 1999-2000 Dot.com bubble was about technology stocks. (7-Years to breakeven)
The 2007-2008 debacle was centered around real estate and subprime debt. (7-years to breakeven)
The 2020, or whenever it occurs, scenario will involve multiple bubbles in stocks, corporate debt, and real estate."
Every politician wants his tenure to be a great, rosy picture. They invariably expand the money supply. Each time, there is a pause / crash, the CB must blow an even bigger bubble to keep things growing.
Trump Warns of Epic Stock Market Crash If He's Not Re-Elected ...
https://www.bloomberg.com/.../trump-...-if-he-s-not-r...
2 days ago -
This game of musical fiscal chairs is coming to an end.
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/bea...t-fear-them-2/

This article is all about trading strategies. But, if "wealth to GDP" has always reverted to the mean for the last 150 years, what are the chances?

[Danny B]

Crash of agriculture and manufacturing

Not much to read,,,, a LOT to understand.
The sun is completely quiet. No sunspots,,, no coronal holes. Quiet as can be. At the same time, violent storms are blasting the globe. If you watch this vid from Suspicious Observers, Ben Davidson explains that much of our weather is caused by cosmic rays and other extra-solar energies. So, while the sun is quite weak, there are more extra-solar energies getting through. Our magnetosphere is continuing to weaken.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wZloiPpGQjA

Crop destruction all over the world is increasing. Reportedly, we have thrashed Mother Nature quite soundly. Mother Nature is striking back.
The Fall Army Worm is eating up China.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/m...r-the-next-ecm
China is going to have to cull 200 million swine to try to stop the spread of African Swine Fever. It's going to spread through much of Asia.
Much of the farmland in America won't be planted this season. I suspect that the wild weather will continue for quite some time. This bodes poorly for many countries.

6/15 Biblical plague of locusts is swarming over Italian farmlands – AccuWeather
Nobody wants to pay for a house that is appraised for less than what is owed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-4wJweYoqus&t=136s
"In a recent interview with AgWeb, the president and CEO of Hackett Financial Advisors, Shawn Hackett, explains why he thinks our civilization will have to come up with new ways of growing food over the next 5 years. "
https://watchers.news/2018/03/16/hac...-growing-food/
Um,, guys,,, 5 years is NOT enough.

France has declared a state of disaster because of weather damage.
https://watchers.news/2019/06/16/vio...mage-reported/
Here is a good vid explaining how the current model of farming is destroying the soil. The end result of intensive farming is; the food has no nutritional value because it is lacking in minerals.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LtTVIu85E-0&t=1147s
Here is an EXCELLENT vid on the electrical circuits created in the body by the various mineral / ion exchanges.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fDWEVXhaydc
Here is a brilliant video on angiogenesis. There are several "foods" that you can eat that will prevent the body from creating new blood vessels to send nutrients to cancer cells.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B9bDZ5-zPtY&t=1094s

6/17 Empire State manufacturing index just saw its biggest drop in 18 years – CNBC
Hmm, back to the dotcom crash.
6/17 Fed critic Jim Grant predicts a rate cut at this week’s meeting – CNBC
6/17 Fed likely to resist pressure to cut U.S. rates this week – Reuters

[Danny B]

FOFOA on gold,,, Libra coin,,,elusive bond buyers

I have to start out with a bit of politics.
GOP rep: Obama running 'shadow government' to undermine Trump .https://thehill.
Report: Obama climate change aides in shadow 'cabinet' to thwart Trtump
How Trump's 'War' On The 'Deep State' Is Leading To The Dismantling Of Government
There may be some truth in these statements. All retiring presidents leave D.C. Obummer didn't. It's also true that many of the deep state moles are obummer holdovers. The attempted coup that has angered and scared so many people was directly controlled by HRC and Barry. The buzzards are coming home to roost.
Here is Kunstler to give you his opinion. It is grim.
https://kunstler.com/cluster****-nat...us-your-truth/
Remember that the markets run on confidence.

Here is a story 30 years in the making. It is a story about the niche that gold occupies. I'll do some excerpts but you should read the whole thing. Remember that gold is just a pet
rock. Remember that the CBs tried to get rid of gold many years ago. Keep in mind that the East won't let them do that. The CBs are loading up on gold.

FOFOA;
"They believe, we are entering a new monetary and financial system in which gold will displace the most conservative types of investments, those used by passive savers.
For A/FOA, gold is the master proxy for real wealth, meaning not money, but the actual wants and needs that contribute to our standard of living. That's real wealth, useful things, and gold is the useless proxy we can save and exchange for those things in the future.
Yes, there are many problems today, but they stem from the $IMFS, not from modern fiat money. And by that, I mean they stem from savers all over the world saving in today's fiat money.
the price of gold has no impact on the price of other things—it's basically an arbitrary price—whereas the price of oil is closely related to the general price level, i.e., inflation, and B) because the gold/oil ratio of the last 73 has never been allowed to find its physical equilibrium price.
The "battle" has already ended. Europe stopped when the euro was launched, and the rest of the foreign public sector stopped supporting the $IMFS five years ago.
What’s important today is not what’s priced in dollars or the dollars used for transactions, but the dollars held as reserves, savings and wealth.
The ball that I watch is capital inflow, that is, foreigners buying US assets. That’s all it takes to support the current system. When that stops, we will get dollar hyperinflation. Since 2013, the foreign public sector has been flat, which means foreign central banks stopped more than five years ago.

This is where I have to differ.Like most things, it isn't that simple. Here is an article that lays out just who is buying U.S. Treasury debt. Keep in mind that that there is NO way to verify any part of the report. The report claims that foreign CBs ARE buying U.S. debt. Why not?? The FED credits them with a trainload of pixels and, they use those pixels to buy U.S. debt. One big confidence game to out last the competition..
https://wolfstreet.com/2019/06/17/wh...ast-12-months/

Back to FOFOA.
"It’s been the foreign private sector buying our bubbles since then.

That will stop when the markets crash, and an important part of my theory is that I don’t think the foreign central banks will pick up the slack this time like they have in the past.
The question is whether Europe and China will prop up the dollar at that critical juncture between when the stock market crashes and the dollar devaluation begins. In the past, they couldn’t let the dollar collapse without it taking them down with it. But today they are prepared, and because they are now taking active measures to counter the USG’s aggressive use of its exorbitant privilege, I don’t think they will be very quick on the draw trying to prop it back up. And that hesitation is important, because once the dollar collapse gets underway, there will be no putting that cat back in the bag.
This is too simplified. The dollar sin't going to rash in a vacuum. everything will go down.

" He said, basically, that the first sign of a bubble market turning is usually some single crazy mania thing that happens. Like in the dot-com bubble, it was Pets.com, and in this one it was Bitcoin. It’s a sign that something has changed.
That whole run-up in Bitcoin from $2,000 to $20,000 during the second half of 2017 was pretty insane"

The landscape is getting pretty weird with all these coins.
6/18 Bitcoin prices have tripled since December–what’s next? – Forbes
6/18 Facebook introduces new “libra” digital currency with landmark white paper – ZH
6/19 “Facebook is positioning for collapse of confidence in fiat money” – ZH
6/19 U.S. lawmaker calls for Facebook to pause cryptocurrency project – Reuters

FOFOA, "Most of the problems with the euro today, and criticisms of it, are actually effects of the current system, the dollar international monetary and financial system ($IMFS), the fishbowl in which even the euro swims today. Once it is free from the $IMFS, the euro will be money par excellence. The reason is mostly because of its management structure."
This is complete BS. The Euro can't possibly function for all these States unless they have a common debt market. This means shafting Germany hugely.
"In his famous acceptance speech for the International Charlemagne Prize of Aachen for the euro in 2002, Wim Duisenberg said, “It is the first currency that has not only severed its link to gold, but also its link to the nation-state.” You see, the euro solved two problems. 1. It severed its link to the wealth reserve function of money. And 2. it severed its link to the Triffin Paradox of an international currency being managed by a single nation. These are the dollar’s two greatest problems, and the design of the euro resolved them."
This too is inaccurate and over-simplified.
https://fofoa.blogspot.com/2019/05/f...wt-report.html

6/19 Meet the mini-bot: Italy will break up the eurozone – Mish
6/19 Value of debt with negative yields nears $12 trillion – MarketWatch
How can they use the word Value?
6/19 China’s Lehman moment Is drawing closer – Bloomberg
Yep,,, for sure. We've been hearing that for 10 years now.
6/19 “Miracles aren’t coming” – surefire recession signals everywhere – Zero Hedge
6/18 Blain: “low rates won’t solve the coming corporate debt crisis” – Zero Hedge

6/18 Investors demand higher premiums for risky Australian mortgage bonds – Reuters
6/19 Gold surges to all time record highs at $1,974/oz in Australian dollars – GoldCore
I'm sure that there is no connection.
6/18 Ho Ho Ho it’s magic: Deutsche Bank, market cap $14b to spin off $50b in assets – Mish

[Danny B]

PCR, Armstrong, Ron Paul, neocons

Things are certainly getting more complex. Maybe you can make heads & tails out of it. I'm not sure of very much.
Here is a good article from Automatic Earth talking about completely getting rid of the Central Banks.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...entral-bankers
The CBs are a convenient target. BUT, it was U.S. GOV that forced the CB to buy war bonds. The CBs have completely distorted the economy. Much of this has been done to rescue the private banks. Much of this has been done to preserve employment at zombie companies. MUCH of this has been done to finance wars in MENA. Volker was lauded as a very good Central Banker. Paul Volker is a Presbyterian,,,, unlike all the CB heads that came after him.

The neocons dragged us into war with Iraq.
https://russia-insider.com/en/25-jew...aq-war/ri27096

Paul Craig Roberts'
"When Ronald Reagan turned his back on the neoconservatives, fired them, and had some of them prosecuted, his administration was free of their evil influence, and President Reagan negotiated the end of the Cold War with Soviet President Gorbachev. The military/security complex, the CIA, and the neocons were very much against ending the Cold War as their budgets, power, and ideology were threatened by the prospect of peace between the two nuclear superpowers.

I know about this, because I was part of it. I helped Reagan create the economic base for bringing the threat of a new arms race to a failing Soviet economy in order to pressure the Soviets into agreement to end the Cold War, and I was appointed to a secret presidential committee with subpeona power over the CIA. The secret committee was authorized by President Reagan to evaluate the CIA’s claim that the Soviets would prevail in an arms race. The secret committee concluded that this was the CIA’s way of perpetuting the Cold War and the CIA’s importance."

"The corrupt Clintons, for whom the accumulation of riches seems to be their main purpose in life, violated the assurances given by the United States that had ended the Cold War. The two puppet presidents—George W. Bush and Obama—who followed the Clintons lost control of the US government to the neocons, who promptly restarted the Cold War,"
https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/201...aig-roberts-2/

In the final analysis, I believe that the FED was a willing party to the inflation that was necessary for Pox Americana,,,, under the guidance of the neocons, to attack all these States and, bankrupt America. Everything that Eisenhower had warned about came to pass. The U.S.S.R was bound to collapse on it's own. There was NO need for America to re-arm after WW-II. Korea and Viet-Nam were just wars of choice to make the arms dealers rich.

Naturally, we're being set up again.
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/2...-media-claims/

Armstrong, "The reason why we will not have a major crash (in equities) is simply because this time it is different — the crash is in the debt markets."
How can he be so short sighted? NOTHING will save corporate debt. How will equities possibly survive?
"This is an important work on how the central banks are trapped and how the manipulations of the World Economy are collapsing in upon themselves. The major central banks are now shifting policy from protecting the people and the economy to protecting the government. Not all are following this policy. Those that are burden with socialist programs are imploding. The more than 10 years of Quantitative Easing has destroyed bond markets and managed to get government addicted to low-interest rates"

"This addresses the Modern Monetary Theory, its origin, and where it would leave us at the end of the day. We are at a crossroads in economic theory because ALL of the old theories has completely collapsed. Everything from Keynesian back to Marxism has crumbled to dust. "
You can thank regulatory capture and crony capitalism.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/p...world-economy/

"LA spent nearly $620 million in tax dollars last year to address the issue, and yet the number of homeless people increased by 16%, reaching nearly 60,000 people."
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/a...is-yet-to-come

The GOV is pumping money into zombies to keep people employed. Public debt is going up astronomically. Still not enough.
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/a...vel-in-9-years
The trucking industry is taking a big hit.
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/a...cally-declines

Ron Paul talks about the FED.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ECDE6j6uqro
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ws9GKXfYkH8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JZchiF9F6cI

6/20 Italys public debt hits new high of $2.66 trillion in April – Urdu Point
6/20 Italy has €50 billion unpaid bills: proposed payment? the mini-bot – Mish
Here is a good article, " The last time that recession odds were the same as they are now was in July 2007, which was just five months before the Great Recession officially started in December 2007. J"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/why...han-you-think/
The feces-for-brains in the management at Boeing cut too many corners on engineering. They wanted to save a buck. That turned out to be a bad idea.
https://www.rt.com/business/462283-a...airbus-boeing/

Putin says Western sanctions cost Russia $50 B, EU $240 B
Ah yes, climbing over the bodies of our friends and allies.
6/20 Student loan debt climbs to record high $1.4 trillion in 2019 – Mish

[Danny B]

Carbon vs nuke,,, Armstrong,,,inescapable deflation,,,Iran

"Japan is only just beginning to assess the damage Kuroda and Abenomics have done, and that’s at a point where both these men are still in power, and hell bent on doing more of the same."
"The Bank of Japan by now owns half the country, and they just want to do more. Kuroda’s plan to get rid of deflation was to force the Japanese to spend their money/savings."
6/21 Yikes! Japan has more people over the age of 80 than under the age of 10 – SM
POSSIBLY, some time in the future, we will discover that population deflation brings economic deflation.
China had a 1-child program. Parents drowned their baby daughters. Now, China has come up short 33 million women. Is that how many were drowned?
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...ves/ar-AADdH6Q

In Oregon, GOV Brown is trying to shove Cap & Trade down the throats of Oregonians. It will destroy the economy. Republicans want the measure put on the ballot for a vote. The GOV says NO!. She is sending out the State police to round up the Republicans to create a quorum. They have had to flee the State.
https://www.kdrv.com/content/news/GO...511572922.html
6/20 Oregon Republican senator warns state troopers to ‘come heavily armed’ – Oregon Live

Here are a couple of titles from Youtube.
13:59 How fear of nuclear power is hurting the environment | Michael Shellenberger
TED 276K views 2 years ago
13:47 We need nuclear power to solve climate change | Joe Lassiter TED 107K views 2 years ago
After the meltdowns at; Chatsworth, Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, Fukushima, et al, close meltdowns at other reactors, The nuke power industry has a BIG PR problem.
Voila! bring in global warming. Make carbon power much more expensive. Make carbon power an environmental nightmare.
For the most part, global warming is just a product of the nuke power industry.
17:33 Why renewables can’t save the planet | Michael Shellenberger | TEDxDanubia
Cap & Trade is a scheme from the nuke industry. GOV Brown has swallowed the whole thing.

6/21 U.S. labor market on solid ground; manufacturing struggling – Reuters
There are more people not in the labor force than there were in the 2008 crash

6/21 The Fed’s casino is giving away free gambling chips (but only to the super-rich) – CHS
6/20 Pimco says the strong dollar’s run is ‘close to the end’ – Bloomberg
6/21 Gold breaches $1,400 in USD, sets all-time record in AUD – Kitco
The price of gold does respond to things like war. For the most part, the price of gold stays the same. It is the value of the currency that is reflected in the "price" of gold.

Armstrong, "Draghi has come out and said that is inflation will not pick up, he will do even more Quantitative Easing. I has warned that the central banks, particularly the ECB, are trapped. They simply cannot return to any normal economic model without blowing up the entire Eurozone. This is becoming extremely serious. The only option for governments will be to adopt the Modern Monetary Theory for it has become impossible for central banks to use interest rates to stimulate the economy"
MAYBE it has something to do with a falling birth rate.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/a...have-known-it/
The CBs are trying to make up for population deflation and wage deflation. They printed up an extra $250 trillion to save the rich bankers. Yep, they are definitely trapped.

Armstrong, "I have come to understand Thrasymachus who observed that it did not matter what form of government we lived under, JUSTICE is always defined as the self-interest of government. Once I looked at his observation, it became crystal clear that it also did not apply to merely government, but all aspects of any group that seized power under a variety of labels including religion."
"The target date is rapidly approaching. Indeed, we have nearly a year to understand what is taking place.

Make no mistake about it. The majority of the youth in Iran do NOT support the current government in Iran. This also raises the stakes for the current religious regime in Ira will gradually lose power as attitudes change among the younger generations. To this inevitability, Iran becomes a greater risk for starting a war of they face the loss of power and a potential internal revolution. "
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...the-war-cycle/

Trump is no dummy.
6/18 The last ditch “neverTrump” ploy: a stupid war with Iran – Stream
6/21 Trump might not want war, but the military is steering his Iran policy – Atlantic
CENTCOM said that the drone was shot down in international waters. The NEOCONS need for him and us to believe this. Trump will take his time until we know where it actually was. This is the last thing that the war hawks want. Bomb NOW, figure out the details later.

[Danny B]

Insurrection in Oregon

Cap & Trade is just a scheme to cut down opposition to nuke power. Oregon GOV Brown is forcing it on the people. The people are NOT going for this BS.
Militia threats prompt shutdown at Oregon capitol - The Washington Post
https://www.washingtonpost.com/.../t...gon-capitol-da...
10 hours ago -

Armed Militias Pledge to Fight for Fugitive Oregon GOP Lawmakers 'At ...
https://www.thedailybeast.com/armed-...tive-oregon-go...

17 hours ago - Mint Images. Right-wing militia groups across the Pacific Northwest are mobilizing to prevent Oregon state police from arresting Republican state senators who went into hiding on Thursday in order to prevent climate change legislation from passing.
This isn't just Oregon. they have lost a big part of their jobs previously because of the "Spotted Owl".
The militias up there are a force to be reconned with.
Western Rifle Shooters Association: Vanderboegh: The Six Apostles

Oath Keepers Warn Feds Not to "Waco" Oregon Occupation -- or there ...
https://thefreethoughtproject.com › Be The Change › The State

Jan 16, 2016 - “If you do it 'Waco' style here, you risk pushing this nation over the edge into a Civil War, because there are “no more free Wacos,” Rhodes ...

[Danny B]

Iran,,, solar & nuke,,,crypto,,,gold,,,bond markets

Saudi intel chief lobbies UK to attack Iran after Trump US cancellation - Official

US Believes Iran Must Be Prevented From Using Allies to Attack Saudi Arabia - Envoy
Those insane Wahabbists in Saudi want to attack Iran just because of religious differences. Iran has no interest whatsoever in attacking Saudi Arabia.
Trump must retaliate against Iran to deter China, Russia and N Korea Says Dimwit Top GOP Rep
Yep, cut off 80% of the oil to the West and, THAT will teach a lesson to China.
FNC Calls Trump Weak on Iran, Will Display Pro-Impeachment Ads On Their Network
Chris Wallace Invokes Deep-State Hero Obama To Criticize Trump On Iran
Yep, we Americans DEMAND a war,,, any war.
'Fire on Iran And The US will be opening gates of hell'...George Galloway in video address
Trump Says He Doesn't Want War With Iran..'There Will Be Obliteration'

US Wants To Avoid 'Unwinnable' War With Iran Says Former Pentagon Advisor

A lost drone is no justification for war with Iran ...even for Trump's squawking hawks
But, but, it was an expensive drone.
"That’s the way Trump tried to frame this the way he did. Because the implications here are that he is being boxed in on all sides by his administration and his allies — the Saudis, Israelis and the UAE — and frogmarched to a war he doesn’t want."
"The delay by United States Central Command in publicly releasing GPS coordinates of the drone when it was shot down — hours after Iran did — and errors in the labelling of the drone’s flight path when the imagery was released"
https://tomluongo.me/2019/06/21/who-...ter-offensive/
Trump is no dummy. He can plainly see that the Saudis and israelies are trying to stampede him into a war that would kill a few hundred million when all the oil stopped lowing. "errors in the labelling" That's it right there. The hawks lose all credibility. Trump is shrewd and, he doesn't like being led around by the nose. Next time that the israeli / saudi coalition bombs a tanker,,, or whatever, Trump will PAUSE. The israeli / saudi coalition attacked a Japanese tanker WHILE the Japanese PM was visiting Iran.


Russia Will Help Iran With Oil, Banking If Europe's SPV Payment Channel Not Launched
The SPV is an alternative to SWIFT. This is a dagger in the back for dollar / American dominance.

Whistleblower Who Warned About False Flag Attacks to Justify US Invasion of Iran Found Dead And His YouTube Channel Removed
Nothing to see here,,, move along.
A former Arkansas state senator, Linda Collins-Smith was found murdered in her home last week in Pocahontas, Arkansas. According to reports, Collins-Smith was closing in on a child trafficking ring which was being run by the Arkansas government.
Nothing to see here. Move along.

Apparently, the State is getting more worried about crypto coins.
Can't let them compete with the dollar' - Maxine Waters blasts Facebook's cryptocurrency
With Libra Launch, Is Facebook Trying To Become A Virtual Country?
6/22 Global money-laundering watchdog launches crackdown on cryptocurrencies – Reuters
6/22 European central bankers claim oversight over Facebook’s cryptocurrency – GATA

The BIG thing wrong with gold is; it pays no interest or dividends.
6/23 Europe’s biggest economy is looking at world without bond yields – Investing
6/23 $11 trillion in bonds yield less than zero. Does it matter? – Forbes
6/23 Gold shot to a 6-year high this week. Here’s what to watch next – Bloomberg
6/23 Michael Oliver: Gold will spike to $1,700 in a matter of months – King World News
6/22 Why are central banks buying gold and dumping dollars? – Ahead of the Herd
Buying Gold is a Fool's Game, Even in Brexit Panic | Money money.com › Investing › Investing

Jun 27, 2016 - We're seeing that played out now as world stock exchanges get pummelled. Gold rose ... Gold never will pay you anything more than zero.
6/22 The Dow is now on pace for its best June in 80 years – MarketWatch
The Fed caused 93% of the entire stock market's move since 2008 ...
https://finance.yahoo
6/23 How can the economy both be booming and headed for a recession? – ZH
So you see that the State must inflate the markets to keep returns higher than the gains in gold / losses to currency debasement. Stocks nominally depend on earnings and returns. With the economy shrinking, all the nominal gains in stocks are due to buybacks. It's called "eating your seed corn".
More spent on S&P 500 buybacks than all 2018 R&D - Axios

6/23 Solar tariffs remain stable at 3.59¢/kwh in latest India auction – Clean Technica
NO, NO, NO, we must have nuke power, no matter the cost.
For the needed 15 terrawatts
" If nuclear stations need to be replaced every 50 years on average, then with 15,000 nuclear power stations, one station would need to be built and another decommissioned somewhere in the world every day. Currently, it takes 6-12 years to build a nuclear station, and up to 20 years to decommission one, making this rate of replacement unrealistic."

6/23 J & J faces multibillion opioids lawsuit that could upend big pharma – Guardian
6/23 US launched cyber attack on Iranian rockets and missiles – Guardian
6/23 US struck Iranian military computers this week – AP
6/23 Cyber week in review – Council on Foreign Relations
6/23 Trump ordered secret cyber attacks on Iran as an “alternative” to war – ZH
The war hawks are fuming.

"At a time of growing liquidation of dollar assets by foreigners, the US Treasury’s internal analysis will highlight future government funding problems in the light of a developing US recession. This will result in an overdependency on inflationary financing, threatening to destabilise the dollar’s purchasing power. For these reasons, America needs foreign portfolios to invest in US Treasuries, at a time when China also needs them to help finance her infrastructure plans and future development. We face a battle for these funds, and the outcome will determine all our futures."
If"they" won't buy our bonds, we will need to do a LOT more printing.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...-war-escalates

California has a new anti-crime program.
https://video.foxnews.com/v/60507455...#sp=show-clips

"Fed President Neel Kashkari. ‘Either of those could be cause for changing the path of monetary policy, Kashkari told Bloomberg… ‘I’m not quite there yet. I take a lot of comfort from the fact that the job market continues to be strong.’”
"In three short weeks, Kashkari’s view evolved from “It’s too early” to begin cutting rates to advocating a dramatic 50 bps cut that in the past would have been in response to a market or economic shock. Yet nothing that extraordinary has occurred over recent weeks,"

"in excess of $13 TN of bonds trading globally with negative yields – sovereign bond markets have become completely divorced from traditional fundamentals. This equates to governments from Rome to Washington essentially being handed blank checkbooks. And with the (“risk free” sovereign debt) foundation of global finance in market dislocation, how sound are markets for equities and corporate Credit?

Capitalism is in clear and present danger. This sounds extreme – unless you’ve followed the trajectory of developments over the years. How are capitalistic systems to operate with central banks abrogating adjustments and corrections both for market and economic systems? It takes a tremendous amount of wishful thinking to believe that today’s markets will effectively allocate real and financial resources. Sound analysis also points to only more precarious imbalances and maladjustment on a global basis. And with global fragilities increasingly conspicuous, it’s reached the perilous point where markets believe central banks will preemptively flood the global system with liquidity to forestall “risk off” in the markets and recession globally. "

"The PBOC can effortlessly print “money” and bail out its troubled banking system. Not so fast… “Bond repos and interbank loans” up nearly 50% over the past year to $10.7 TN. Those are two data points that should alarm the world – and surely help explain panic buying of Trillions of negative-yielding global bonds. "
https://creditbubblebulletin.blogspo...g-central.html

[Danny B]

Price inflation,,, central planners,,,neofeudalism

Shadowstats;
The CPI chart on the home page reflects our estimate of inflation for today as if it were calculated the same way it was in 1990. The CPI on the Alternate Data Series tab here reflects the CPI as if it were calculated using the methodologies in place in 1980. In general terms, methodological shifts in government reporting have depressed reported inflation, moving the concept of the CPI away from being a measure of the cost of living needed to maintain a constant standard of living. "
Remember that Shadowstats still uses GOV imputs. Price inflation recently has been running at about 6%.... using the old methodology. A 6% interest rate nowdays is practically unheard of.
All the money renters who are collecting less than 6% are losing. with $13 trillion in NIRP, a lot of people are losing a lot of money.

Sven Henrich, "It's amazing what one can do in 10 years with $4T in QE, $6T in corporate debt/buybacks, $12T in new government debt and the weakest rate hike cycle in history, off of zero bound no less.
By all means let's celebrate this accomplishment of free market economic"
https://northmantrader.com/2019/06/2...ney-socialism/
The article is worth reading. Sven is loudly complaining about all the money pumped into the upper loop.
Sven fails to project what would happen to employment if all those zombies were allowed to fail. Suppose that all the military were brought home. Suppose that the defense industry were pared back to only what we need for domestic security. Suppose that we closed all the military bases.
Sven fails to look at the entire situation.

"These central planners – though they may not know it – are facing a no-win situation. They’ve extrapolated the past and are attempting to preserve the status quo into the future. Yet their efforts to perpetuate the upward growth curve of their countries and unions are useless against the relentless turn of history.

The political, financial, economic, and social foundations that have been in place over the last 75 years – and perhaps, over the last 220 years – are breaking down. And no policy directive, no interest rate adjustment, no trade tariff, no five year plan, no extraordinary measures, no green new deal, and no technocratic prevarication is going to stop it. Big Government doesn’t stand a chance."

"Still, the central planners are doing anything and everything to resist the downside. They’re taking emergency actions. They’re employing extreme currency debasement. They’re slapping price controls across the economic landscape. They’re starting wars. They’re harnessing populism. They’re doing all of these – and more…

They’re also slipping and sliding and falling and flailing. Indeed, this is an epic folly for the ages. With this as context, what follows are several of this week’s choice proceedings…"
"European Central Bank President Mario “whatever it takes” Draghi reaffirmed his commitment to currency debasement. His objective is to, somehow, provide perpetual stimulus to the Eurozone economy. Much like Elizabeth Warren’s Economic Patriotism plan, Draghi aims to boost exports via the destruction of money."
" The yield on the German 10-year bund dropped to a record negative 32 basis points. What’s more, the yield on the 10-year French OAT briefly slipped into negative territory for the first time in recorded history. But that’s not all…"
Everybody is trying to print their way out of the problems of AUTOMATION.
https://economicprism.com/feeling-th...ide/#more-6617

There are just too many things that have changed for the status quo to continue to work as before. The Council on Foreign Relations has this to say:
"Facebook Announces Plans for New Digital Currency: Facebook unveiled plans for new global cryptocurrency Libra, set to launch in 2020. Utilizing a “secure, scalable, and reliable blockchain,” Libra will be backed in multiple currencies and U.S. Treasuries, preventing drastic fluctuations in its value unlike well-known cryptocurrency Bitcoin. The currency will be governed by the Libra Association, an independent, non-profit membership organization including companies such as Mastercard, PayPal, Uber, and Spotify. Users will acquire the cryptocurrency through Facebook subsidiary Calibra upon presenting government identification, "
https://www.cfr.org/blog/cyber-week-review-june-21-2019
Keep in mind that Armstrong said that all sovereign debt

(Treasury) will blow up. "Backed by multiple currencies" The printing presses are soon to be cranked up to 11.
6/24 Facebook’s libra cryptocurrency ‘poses risks to global banking’ – Guardian
6/24 Under Trump, currencies may become the next global battleground – France 24
6/23 Will Trump engage in a currency war? – Liberty Nation

Charles Huge Smith;
" Indeed, it can be argued that it was not until the 1600s and 1700s--and only in the northern European strongholds of commoners' rights, The Netherlands and England--that the rights of ownership and political influence enjoyed by commoners in the Roman Empire were matched.
It can even be argued that the rights of Roman citizenship granted to every resident of the late Empire were only matched in the 19th and 20th centuries."
" There are two points worth discussing. One is the acceleration of change; what took 300 years now takes 30, or perhaps less.
The second is the slow erosion of commoners' self-rule and ownership of meaningful, productive capital.
This gradual, almost imperceptible erosion is what I call neofeudalism, a process of transferring political and economic power from commoners to a new Financial Aristocracy/Nobility."
"The capital and managerial expertise required to launch and grow a legal enterprise is extraordinarily high, which is at least partly why a nation of self-employed farmers, shopkeepers, artisans and traders is now a nation of employees of government and large corporations."
As for political influence: a recent study found that voters had very little power in the U.S., which is effectively an oligarchy: Testing Theories of American Politics: Elites, Interest Groups, and Average Citizens.
Summary: "The U.S. government does not represent the interests of the majority of the country's citizens, but is instead ruled by those of the rich and powerful, a new study from Princeton and Northwestern universities has concluded."
Neofeudalism is not a re-run of feudalism. It's a new and improved, state-corporate version of indentured servitude. "
VERY good article.
oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith: The Lessons of Rome: Our Neofeudal Oligarchy

6/24 One reason why the Fed should cut rates ‘four times’ over next year – CNBC
6/24 Markets, not Trump, are pressuring the Fed to cut rates – St. Louis Today

[Danny B]

Replacement immigration

Is 'welfare' the highest paying entry-level job in 35 states? Read the ...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/.../i...level-job-in-3...

Sep 16, 2015 - “Welfare is Highest-Paying Entry Level Job in All but Fifteen States” ... In 35 states, welfare paid more than a minimum wage job, even after ...

Replacement Migration - Census Shows Texas Adding 9 New Hispanics For Every White Resident
Expert - It's 'Only Matter of Time Before Illegal Alien Voting Is Expanded'
American Citizens Now Face Up To $500 'SpeedingTickets' For Riding BICYCLES Over 15 MPH
From the looney file;
6/24 Google using AI to meddle in 2020 election, prevent ‘next Trump situation’ – ZH
6/24 Elizabeth Warren wants reparations for same-sex couples – Daily Caller
So, what happens to the many millions of people, including immigrants, when GOV debt collapses?

[Danny B]

Can we escape Armstrong's long running precistions?

To Repeat, Armstrong's program, Socrates has 5000 years of price data. For the cost of wheat, it only goes back to 1215. You get the idea. The database is very comprehensive. He is calling for a collapse in public sector debt. He is calling for a collapse in debt markets. He is calling for a shift in confidence from public to private debt. 22 million people work directly for GOV. MANY millions more work in private sectors that contract with GOV. How will a collapse in Sovereign debt fail to cause a huge collapse in sectors that depend on State spending?

Armstrong also reports that investors will lose confidence in State debt and, abandon it. Look at Japan. The BOJ already owns more than half of all electronically traded funds. Does confidence really matter if the Central Bank owns everything and, doesn't have to depend on investors? That may very well be the plan for the State. Buy up everything now and, abandon the (collapsing) debt markets. That may very well BE the plan. How will the reality play out? Keep in mind that Socrates has been amazingly accurate.

Armstrong, "In Its Just Time, I wrote: “While the clear high in the political state of the United States took place in 1999, the economic high came precisely to the day on February 27th, 2007. “

The flip in this relationship is still on target. Nothing requires any change to that forecast I delivered back in 1997. This is all being driven by the Sovereign Debt Crisis."
So, while it might be interesting to argue with Armstrong's forecasts, you would have to ignore an extremely good track history.

More from Armstrong,
"ANSWER: A lot of people I knew in the various banks back in the 1990s have left before the cards start to fall. I remember well. They were at Morgan Stanley back then and the two were polar opposites on their forecasts if I remember correctly. Barton Biggs argued that the world would be flooded by a glut of cheap Asian labor and Steve Roach was pointing to the Philips Curve warning that public deficits in the west would lead to a massive inflationary bonfire.

The Stock-Bond Correlation was the real debate. Our model was warning that stocks and bonds would indeed behave very differently which has materialized. Since 1998, stock prices and bond prices have been negatively correlated. In other words, when stock prices go up, bond prices go down and vice versa. Overall, stocks and bonds are indeed currently acting in opposition to each other on the macro-trend level. There has been a negative correction which some call the “flight to quality” when confidence collapses in the private sector, capital fled to the public sector. The broader 250-year relationship would argue that this is highly unusual. It is true that stocks and bonds moved up and down together throughout the 250 years prior to the 21st century.

The reason I delivered that forecast back then was the realization that government debt had entered a perpetual borrowing cycle ever since World War II. Moreover, the 224-year cycle of political change was due in 1999. That meant the political peak in government would take place at that time. The economic peak would by 2007. Both of those forecasts have been absolutely correct. Politics has declined steadily and ever since the 2007-2009 crash, interest rates have dropped sharply and there has been a contraction in inflation with a decline in economic growth."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/a...ins-on-target/

Armstrong on universal basic income.

The idea of some Universal Basic Income has been around for a long time. Here is Milton Friedman on his proposal of a Negative Income Tax. There will always be welfare for there are people who cannot work for some disability and others who prefer not to work and game the system. Even programs where the state directly pays for the food rather than food stamps or restricts the food stamps to certain products, the ingenuity of some people cannot be underestimated. They will sell the products they get for cash.
NO MENTION at all of millions of people who no longer have a job niche.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/a...-basic-income/

Armstrong is calling for a LOT of future price inflation. I suppose that all that monetary inflation to save the money renters will bleed over even faster into the lower loop. "They" are calling for big price increases. The many millions of people in the lower loop who do not have investments in the bloated markets are experiencing a fall in purchasing power. Yes, I have no doubt that we will have increasing price inflation. This will cause a corresponding fall in consumption.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/f...-inflationary/
Coin wars
6/25 Ethereum co-founder slams Facebook’s libra token for centralization – ZH
6/24 Facebook’s libra cryptocurrency ‘poses risks to global banking’ – Guardian
6/25 Gold’s massive rally rooted in ‘massive dent in confidence of the Fed’ – Kitco
6/25 Despite surplus claims, CA can’t fund pensions – Epoch Times