Economic pressures

[Danny B]

Stockman,,, the numerous speedbumps

David Stockman has some good observations.
"There’s not going to be a deal, because the problem that Trump is focused on and obsessed with is that we bought $543 billion worth of stuff from China last year, and we sold $120 billion.

It’s not because of bad trade deals The Donald thinks that his predecessor made. Or because the Chinese are the worst kind of trade cheats in world history.
The reason is the economic differential—the economic cost and wage gap between the two countries is so great, that we have this huge imbalance. The Fed is the partial cause of that economic and cost differential.
If you look at manufacturing, our average wage is over $30, which includes the cash wage plus the health benefits, retirement, and Social Security taxes, and all the rest of it.
And in China, it’s about $5. When you have $30 versus $5, it tells you all you need to know."
'China is a red Ponzi. It’s a house of cards. It’ll collapse of its own weight sooner or later.
But we are going to hasten the collapse of the red Ponzi because they’re selling at (low) prices in order to maintain business and not lose it to Vietnam and others."
The global mean wage allows no escape.

"They’ve got no room left to go. Now, people say they could go negative. They will not go negative in the United States. If they actually tried to drive interest rates in the short end of the market into negative territory—and finally crush whatever life is left in the savers and retirees of America—people would be descending on Washington with pitchforks and torches. So that won’t happen."
Not so sure about that. Even Bernanke said that rates could never go negative because people would just hold cash.
"The QE experiment has failed entirely. We’ve had massive increases in the Fed’s balance sheet, which went from about $850 billion on the eve of the subprime crisis to a peak of $4.5 trillion. "
NOT a failure,,, the banks are still open.

"You have $16 trillion of investment-grade sovereign debt trading at negative yields."
"So, if they try to go big time with a new round of QE, that will blow up the bond market. There’s no doubt about it.
I think that will be a calamity and will generate an unprecedented collapse of the entire global financial system"
"This is a race to the bottom on yields. This is a race to the bottom of the $60- or $90-trillion global bond market, depending whether you’re counting investment grade or everything. If you count everything, it’s something like $90 trillion."
"Let’s say the price moves 110 to 120 on 95% leverage, and they’re laughing all the way to the bank. This is big-time speculation.

When it reverses, they’re going to unwind these trades and all these elevated, insane prices in the bond market.
That’s what $16 trillion of negative yield means. It equals insanity.
So, the point is it’s going to correct, and when it does, it will correct hard. It will ricochet through the entire financial system."
"In other words, the correction is going to cascade and ricochet through the entire global financial system. It consists of $250 trillion of debt—of bonds, bank, junk, commercial real estate securitization, and all the rest of it. And the global stock market is about $80 trillion.

That’s to say nothing of the derivatives, which are orders of magnitude larger than those two markets.
So, we’re talking about a threat to the entire financial superstructure of the world. I don’t think it’s going to be a happy ending."
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...nancial-system

"Make of Argentina’s woes what you will. Central bankers in the United States are also guilty of programs of mass money debasement. They may have a bigger economy to better mask their malice. But despite what the MMT delusionals say the day of reckoning always arrives – and always at the worst possible time."
The article goes on to "prove" that free money always debases the currency and causes price inflation.
ALL the current efforts at reinflating the economy are focused on channeling the money through the bankers FIRST. They just roll-over existing debt with the new money. MMT and UBI, if administered correctly would reflate the consumers, NOT the speculators. It is the massive deflation in the lower loop that is dragging down the upper loop. Still, they would rather be at the helm of a sinking ship rather that changing to a course that would save both loops.
https://economicprism.com/suffering-...l-cheap-money/

"#1 Biggie: Finance and Insurance.

Revenues in the finance-and-insurance sector rose 7.0% to $1.28 trillion in Q2, a new record, and the fastest growth of any major sector. For the first two quarters, revenues rose 6.9% to $2.54 trillion."
"Without the drag of the Fed, finance and insurance revenues rose 7.4% in Q2.

The largest sub-segment of the “finance” part is banking: Deposit-taking banks (commercial banks, credit unions, and the like); and nonbanks or shadow banks (lenders that don’t take deposits). Revenues jumped 7.0% in Q2 to a record $360 billion, with shadow banks having bypassed deposit-taking banks some time ago.

The “insurance” part of this sector is even larger than the “finance” part, in terms of revenues, with blistering growth rates approaching 10% "
https://wolfstreet.com/2019/09/06/se...grows-fastest/
No surprise that the velocity of money is falling. No surprise that the lower loop is constantly deflating.

The problems with the 737 are killing Boeing. NOW,
Scandal-plagued Boeing Suspends Test Of Long-range 777x After 'issue' During Final Load Checks
US Sent 30,000 Truckloads Of Arms To N. Syria - Erdogan And the masters of war are quite happy.

Welsh Independence Supporters March 'All Under One Banner
Scottish Independence Supporters March 'All Under One Banner'
I see no mention of Ireland. What happened to the Provo company?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P8wgrZ6t5BA
https://headlinehealth.com/african-s...pigs-in-china/
Maersk is reducing shipping capacity from China to Europe.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...lobal-slowdown

They are ALL gold diggers.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...attractive-men
The thread has almost 1100 comments,,, very informative.

9/08 Warning issued after malware hijacks bitcoin blockchain – Forbes
Did you hear that the same thing happened to gold?? NO,,, neither did I.
9/08 Robert Mueller helped Saudi Arabia cover up its role in 9/11 attacks – NY Post
I'm hoping that somebody, somewhere starts to squeal on the real attackers.
9/07 For the first time in my life, I’m frightened to be Jewish – Open Democracy
That's great. If Judaism can rid itself of the great leech of zionism, the world will be a better place for everybody.
9/06 Trump administration backs privatizing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac – MarketWatch
Without an explicit government backing they go bankrupt in a matter of hours.

9/08 Russia issues sovereign bonds denominated in yuan – Zero Hedge
This is a very big deal.
9/08 China: a paper tiger in a fragile economy – Liberty Nation

9/08 This global recession will be immune to monetary solutions – Roubini – Moguldom
ONLY if the money is injected into the upper loop.
9/08 Fed may need radical measures to protect US economy from next downturn – Fox
Try UBI
Workers in Wisconsin lead the way.
https://www.blacklistednews.com/arti...ating-new.html

[Danny B]

Fighting deflation by destroying the economy

The fight against debt-free money is warming up. The lies fly thick. I'll try to list them.
(Presbyterian) Former US Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker has said that he does not understand the rationale behind the central bank having a target of 2 percent for inflation.
Volcker said that he had found no mention of the rationale behind having a 2 percent target for inflation in any of the textbooks that he had read. "I know of no theoretical justification," he wrote."
Volcker Blasts Bernanke and Yellen Over 2% Inflation Target

The ECB’s Deflation Obsession
Sep 6, 2019 Daniel Gros

It is hard to understand why the European Central Bank is currently so anxious to find new ways to make its policy stance even more expansionary. Its hyper-vigilance about falling prices is misplaced
BRUSSELS – Central banks aim for price stability, and today, prices are largely stable across much of the developed world. Yet central bankers declare themselves unsatisfied.
For starters, prices are not falling now; they are just increasing more slowly than central bankers would like.
The ECB regards such low inflation as totally unacceptable. It defines “price stability” not as stable – that is, unchanging – prices, but as year-on-year eurozone inflation of “below, but close to, 2% over the medium term.” Similarly, the United States Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan have inflation targets of 2%.
Central banks are afraid of stable prices for two reasons. The first is that the real value of debt automatically increases when prices fall. But fears of debt deflation seem overblown: because nominal interest rates are themselves close to zero, the real burden of debt would not increase even if prices remained stable. Moreover, the manageability of debt service depends mainly on whether incomes increase faster than the outstanding debt, not on whether the inflation rate exceeds the interest rate.
Ah yes, income increases.

This is especially important for highly indebted governments (and households). But on that score, the picture is currently even more positive: nominal GDP growth in the eurozone remains around 3%, well above the interest rates on almost all member governments’ longer-term debt (the average refinancing cost across the eurozone is now close to zero).
That GDP growth is all bogus because it counts money printing as GDP growth
As a result, eurozone governments are in a very comfortable position. Provided they run a primary budget balance of revenue and non-interest expenditure, their debt burden will slowly decline, relative to GDP.
Ah yes but, their revenue is falling.
Households are also favorably placed: their incomes are growing by about 3%, while mortgage rates are heading toward zero. They can therefore just wait for their debt-service capacity to improve over time.
There is no income growth and unemployment runs as high as 35%

Central banks’ second reason for avoiding stable prices is that it might be difficult for prices to fall in absolute terms
True, producers rarely face significant barriers to lowering the prices of most goods and services sold to consumers or other businesses. But firms generally find it much harder to reduce nominal wages to compensate for lower prices.
They would NEVER dream of lowering stock dividends.
Yet the downward stickiness of wages is unlikely to become a concern anytime soon. Nominal wages are currently increasing by around 2.5% per year in the eurozone (and by over 3% in the US). These rates are among the highest this decade, which has been a period of strong employment growth overall.
These people must have done a lot of drugs.

This is not the first time that wages have fallen in Japan, and previous episodes caused no noticeable problems. Some economists, in fact, have argued that downward wage flexibility does not seem to be a primary contributing factor to Japan’s prolonged deflation.
Rising Relative Poverty in Japan. TOKYO, Japan — The rate of poverty in Japan has hit an all-time high among children and single mothers, currently at 16.3 percent. .
no noticeable problems,,,, so, just get rid of the children and mothers.

The need for occasional reductions in nominal wages seems remote in Europe and the US, and does not seem to cause trouble in Japan.
These wage reductions are a continual occurrence caused by currency inflation resulting in purchasing power reduction.
Given all this, it is hard to understand why the ECB in particular should be so anxious to find new ways to make its stance even more expansionary. Yes, economic activity has weakened over recent quarters, and survey-based indicators suggest that the global economy is poised for a slowdown. But as former US Secretary of the Treasury Lawrence H. Summers and Anna Stansbury have convincingly argued, by itself, further monetary-policy easing will do little to stimulate demand and drive inflation.
As long as it is all pumped into the upper loop, this is true
https://www.project-syndicate.org/co...l-gros-2019-09

An attempt to pump money into the lower loop will bring disaster,,,, so it is claimed.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...cracy-dystopia

[Danny B]

QE MAX from the ECB,,, Illinois, Ford, GM,, GE

There is a wonderful new method of energy storage that uses CO2 as a primary material.
"So far, the process has been shown to convert about 42 percent of the electricity from a power source into a chemical form that can be used in fuel cells."
https://www.sciencealert.com/enginee...to-liquid-fuel
42%, marvellous.

Margaret Thatcher managed to keep GB out of the monetary union. This should make Brexit easier. Not surprisingly, the House of lords has sided with the City of London bankers in trying to block Brexit. BOJO is no slouch and, things are going to get bloody.
9/09 Boris Johnson’s Brexit carnage – New Yorker
9/09 Boris and Farage could crush Labour in election – Express

9/09 Toxic nanoparticle air pollution found in human brain tissue – Natural Society
What a surprise?? The 10th cranial nerve (Vagus nerve) carries nutrients & poison alike from the gut and, past the blood-brain barrier.
9/09 Australia deploys world’s first law to fight online extremism – Zero Hedge
All the wankers in politics are tired of being ridiculed.
"A man wearing an "I'm with stupid" T-shirt has been charged with public nuisance during campaigning for the Queensland state election. Judi Jabour witnessed the incident and tweeted that she saw at least 10 police, one paddy wagon and two vehicles turn up at Brunswick Street to arrest Fogerty.
Fogerty was seen standing next to people campaigning for Robert Cavallucci, the state member for Brisbane central and Assistant Minister for Multicultural Affairs, "

9/07 Porsche’s 750 hp Tesla-killer has landed… and Elon is getting nervous – Zero Hedge
Marvellous, how many people do you know that can safely drive a car with 750 hp?

9/09 Lagarde says `highly accommodative policy’ is warranted by ECB – Yahoo
9/09 Time for shock and awe: five questions for the ECB – Reuters
9/09 Germany considers ‘shadow budget’ to circumvent national debt rules – Reuters
Italy circumvented the budget rules by telling the ECB to "get stuffed"
France got around the the national debt rules by just ignoring them.
9/09 ‘Super Mario’ Draghi set to ride again – Bloomberg
He's just trying to survive to the end of his term. LaGarde is trying to pave the way for her term.
The printing presses will be humming. Existing capital will flee. The more that the ECB prints, the more that GB and U.S. will attract capital. It won't go to the sovereign bond market because of Armstrong's warnings. The corporate bond market is exceedingly ugly too. Regardless of stock markets being in the nosebleed zone, they may still go higher.

9/09 The shale boom has turned to bust: producers slashing budgets & production goals – ZH
9/09 Oil prices and the coming financial ‘ice age’ – Resiience
Time to call up Russia for oil.

9/09 New questions on Chinese GDP and solvency as SOE’s told to “pay bills on time” – Mish
9/09 Chinese exporters get a taste of the misery to come – Bloomberg
9/09 China’s trade with US shrinks as tariff war worsens – AP
9/09 China adds 100 tons of gold to its reserves in just 9 months – Kitco
9/09 The China silver wildcard & what’s next for the silver price – SRSrocco Report
China, like Germany was on a silver standard for a long time. Germany went off the silver standard when The Comstock Lode was found in Nevada.

9/09 World’s worst bad-loan mess set to worsen on India’s cash crunch – Bloomberg
India banks stressed debt ratio may exceed 12% of the total ,,, A prolonged shadow-banking crisis
Ah yes, the shadow banking system.
9/09 Globalization hits a brick wall named Trump – Real Investment Advice
Trump is trying to pull America back from the road to revolution.

ZH FBI Given Evidence Of Clinton-Linked Libya Scheme; Instead Launched Trump-Russia Quagmire.

Illinois' Record $47 Billion Loss Ignored By Mainstream Media. Why?
Instead of clear reporting on Illinois' greatest loss ever, we’ve seen perhaps the most glaring example yet of how the state’s finances can be misunderstood, misreported and intentionally distorted.

Crashing Angel: Moody's Downgrades Ford, And Its $84 Billion In Debt, To Junk
No less than $84 billion in debt is affected, making Ford the single biggest fallen angel in the US bond market.
Markopolos: GE Is “Bankruptcy Waiting To Happen”
General Motors And General Electric Highlight The Ponzi Scheme That Is The US Economy
9/09 Latest trade war causalities: more than 10,000 layoffs in August – Reason

[Danny B]

reducing drug availability,,,a bit closer every day to the default cascade

The Trump effect;
Purdue Pharma Expected To File Bankruptcy Amid Settlement Negotiations 'Hitting An Impasse'
Oxycontin Owners Refuse To Risk Their Personal Wealth
"the family had balked at a demand from state attorneys general that they pay roughly $4.5 billion out of their personal wealth. State and local governments have filed more than 2,000 lawsuits claiming Purdue Pharma played a central role marketing opioid medications, including Oxycontin, while downplaying the risks.
Marketing? They bribed doctors to prescribe cowboy cocaine for EVERYTHING.
"federal opioid trial involving Purdue Pharma and more than 20 other drugmakers, distributors and pharmacy chains is set to begin next month in Cleveland."
https://www.npr.org/2019/09/09/75892...-opioid-claims
9/06 Next up for the guillotine, after opioids, are psychotropic pharmaceuticals – Dr. Sircus

The queen and the house of lords are aligned with the London Bankers and, against the people. Besides that "The bankers sell the government debt so the politicians cannot let the bankers fail for they also fund their elections."
Banker funded elections. What could possibly go wrong?
"The central banks are ARTIFICIALLY manipulating interest rates down to try to save the banks, but this Quantitative Easing has not only failed, it has set the stage for the next financial disaster — the collapse of government pensions and private pension funds. These funds are regulated and it is mandated that they have government debt for that is “risk free,” so they claim."
"This entire mess is not going to be held off much longer. We will be looking at this in great detail at the WEC in Orlando (Oct. 25-26)."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...t-the-bankers/

Society General has very good analysts. This is what they have to say about the bond market.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...-around-corner
Another article from Zero Hedge points out that the human element is the weak link.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...says-ibm-study
BUT, the "human element" is ALL there is.
This doomsday clock tells you when Japan's sex problem will cause the country to go extinct
"The worrisome trend has now reached a critical mass known as a "demographic time bomb."
When that happens, a vicious cycle of low spending and low fertility can cause entire generations to shrink — or disappear completely. "
The BOJ keeps rescuing the banks. Did it never occur to them to rescue the people?

Armstrong; "COMMENT: Chicago is at it again. The new mayor, Lorie Lightfoot, is proposing a sales tax for high end professional services such as accounting, legal and investment banking. Can you imagine how fast the business district will be vacant!

REPLY: Chicago is rather doomed. The teachers wanted to put a tax on all trading in Chicago to pay for their pensions. These people have no concept of competition. Here is a postcard from 1909 showing that New York City was once the biggest port in America. There is NOTHING left because of the unions and corruption. Shipping simply left."

Armstrong answers the question, Can AI think.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/a.../can-ai-think/

9/08 Warning issued after malware hijacks bitcoin blockchain – Forbes
Probably orchestrated by Goldman Sachs.
9/10 Biggest inflation in the history of history coming – Bill Holter – USA Watchdog
The PPT and CBs pumped in about $250 trillion of new debt. This is rapidly evaporating. The CBs, especially the ECB are getting ready to pump in X amount more to hold off deflation. It is doubtful that they can actually force-feed this debt into any new niches. Inflation is defined as an increase in the money supply. How does this work out when you are inflating a negative? Stay tuned to find out.

9/10 Gold will be the last man standing in a currency war – Mark Mobius – Kitco
Gold isn't a currency. It is a store of value.
9/10 Deficit surpasses $1 trillion: CBO – The Hill
9/10 Phantom FDI – Companies aren’t investing, they’re hiding money – Mish
Stay tuned to see how this works out.
9/10 Samurai, ninja loans boom as Japan banks hunt for yield – Reuters
9/10 Families go deep in debt to stay middle class: revolving credit jumps 11.2% – Mish
Ah yes, the family will be collateral damage in the war to save the banks.

9/10 Top U.S. regulator warns over corporate debt, market risks – Reuters
9/10 Big central bankers have big problems – Bloomberg
Buy more spam and popcorn.

"Lost in this new awareness, however, is that our global industrial economy is once again teetering on the edge of what will be a long drawn-out but ultimately permanent collapse. That’s a concern because if the more pervasive effects of economic collapse come first, there’s a good chance climate collapse will once again be ignored as our attention focuses on the more immediate existential crisis of economic suffering."

"This economy is built on faith in perpetual growth: faith that rapid and accelerating economic ‘growth’ can and will somehow continue indefinitely, so that investments in the future will continue to make sense. If that faith is shattered — if people begin to doubt that investing now in stocks, bonds, loans, real estate, commodities, and businesses will not yield a positive return commensurate with the risk in the intervening period — then the market value of those goods and securities will crumble, in some cases (like with stocks) to zero."
Bonds to zero,,, stocks to 15%

http://howtosavetheworld.ca/2019/09/...mate-collapse/
It's a pretty negative article but, has a lot of information. It leans heavily on CO2 and global warming. Global warming and increased CO2 would be good for plants. Unfortunately, we're moving into a cooling trend. Far worse that warming OR cooling is the obvious AND increasing climate volatility. The crop destruction will get much worse as we move into solar cycle 25.

[Danny B]

Rethinking globalism and capitalism

Globalization Is the Only Answer - World Bank Group It works for the banks.
The Threat of Globalization - Global Policy Forum
Globalisation: the rise and fall of an idea that swept the world The Guardian
Globalization benefited just 6 countries.
Globalization was one of those ideas that sounded good on paper. It is just too exclusionary. It left too many people out.
Don't Reverse Globalization. Refine It. - The Globalist https://www.theglobalist.com
Trump and the reversal of globalization - Daily Sabah
Globalization a trend that cannot be reversed - Opinion ...www.chinadaily It worked for China up until the point that it starved it's customers..

Why they're wrong - Anti-globalists - The Economist Yes, the mouthpiece of the self-appointed elites.
That Noise You Hear Is the Sound of Globalization Going Into reverse https://www.wsj. Ah, Wall Street Journal
Globalisation is changing, not going into reverse | Financial Times Another elite mouthpiece.
Globalism is too exclusionary.

What about capitalism? Here is an article about capitalism in crisis.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/04/capi...aboolainternal

Naturally, it is full of lies. Nobody wants to blame crony capitalism.
'Skeptics dismissed that as “virtue-signaling” to mollify the anti-business left. But what if the Roundtable signaled a broader turning point, toward reordering America’s relationship with the free market itself?

Early 21st century discord in the U.S., Britain and elsewhere points toward that possibility. And “The Economists’ Hour,” a compelling new book by New York Times journalist Binyamin Appelbaum, helps explain how we got here."
"Appelbaum traces the rising influence of economists, and the values their discipline embodies, in government decision-making since World War II. Milton Friedman, along with John Maynard Keynes the most influential among them, ushered in the concept of shareholder capitalism in 1970."
Shareholder capitalism Appeared just as we were forced to abandon the gold standard in 1971. Inflate the snot out of everything except wages and, it will be great for the markets.

"Soviet communism collapsed, and living standards rose in the developing world. Yet rising integration with the global economy didn’t halt the long-term slowdown in U.S. growth."
Triffin's dilemma meant that foreign producers were forced to undercut American prices to earn dollars,,, if they wanted to have any reserves. All reserves were U.S. dollars and, there was only one way to get them.
"He adds: “But the market revolution went too far. In the United States and in other developed nations, it has come at the expense of economic equality, of the health of liberal democracy and of future generations.”

In impressive detail, Appelbaum catalogs the ways that revolution reached beyond conventional economic policy. "
Make that economic slavery created by banker originated inflation.
"America deregulated airlines and Wall Street in the name of enhancing choice and competing internationally. It loosened antitrust enforcement"
Yes, remove all moral hazard for the bankers,,, good idea.

"These efforts aimed to limit distortions imposed by political choices in the belief that efficient markets produce better outcomes for society as a whole. Politicians could use government to help market casualties later.
As it happened, casualties outpaced attempts to assist, and government investments in sources of future prosperity shrank."
NOT true, the TARP money created a lot of prosperity for the bankers

"Trump’s 2020 Democratic opponents promise tax, spending and regulatory interventions to lift the working class at the expense of corporations and the rich. Corporate leaders themselves, as the Roundtable made clear, recognize something has to change.

“Capitalism basically is not working for the majority of people,” as billionaire hedge fund manager Ray Dalio puts it. “That’s just the reality.”"
Sure, right,, blame capitalism for the sins of crony capitalism.
“Markets are constructed by people, for purposes chosen by people,” Appelbaum concludes. “And they can be changed and rebuilt by people.”
Markets are constructed by parasites and criminals.

Reportedly America has much more debt than generally recognised.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/09/real...-suggests.html
Here is a good article on the blow-off phase of the debt bubble. Here is one interesting point,,, of many.
"A recent week of corporate bond issuance was “the biggest weekly volume to hit global markets on record,” according to Dealogic. US investment-grade companies raised $72 billion across 45 deals, equaling the total issued in all of August.

Numerous companies issued 30-year bonds with yields below 3%, which used to be the province of safe haven governments. Even Apple, which is sitting on an epic pile of cash, borrowed money. "
https://www.dollarcollapse.com/globa...bble-blow-off/

9/10 Subprime auto lender verified income on only 3% of loans in latest bond – ZH
Is EVERYBODY expecting a bailout in the collapse?
9/10 Deficit surpasses $1 trillion: CBO – The Hill
Really?? I hadn't noticed.
9/10 Trump fires chickenhawk adviser John Bolton – CNN
That is the best news in ages.
The Trump effect.
9/10 Big Tech backlash kicks into gear with antitrust moves – AFP
9/10 Devin Nunes accuses Fusion GPS of “racketeering” in new lawsuit – RCP

9/10 Japan may have to dump radioactive water into the sea, minister says – Reuters
This is SO stupid. Read Eagle Research. The water can be reduced to HHO gas and burned. According to George, vaporization with burning HHO gas removes radioactivity. I haven't tested this my self. HHO gas is SO strange, I wouldn't be surprised if the claim was true.
9/10 Tesla researcher makes million-mile battery cell breakthrough – Teslarati
Fascinating article about the impact that created the K/T boundary.
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/s...unning-detail/

[Danny B]

Spreading the message of UBI

Once again, yesterday's post got zapped.
Why Momentum Stocks Are Getting "Slaughtered" | Zero Hedge
Charles Huge Smith writes about bubble dynamics. Good article.
Here is one graph, https://www.oftwominds.com/photos201...bubble4-19.png
Keep in mind that the stock market is distorted by foreign capital inflows.
oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith: The Inevitable Bursting of Our Bubble Economy

Armstrong, Can governments prevent a major debt crisis?
"ANSWER: In building the model, I assembled data on everything I could find and then put it all together to see how and what made the world tick. I investigated tax rates to see how civilizations operated. I investigated what types of governments worked best and what always collapsed into oligarchies, then tyrannical entities, before collapsing into dust."

"The Romans generally had a 7% tax. They also had welfare. The difference was that they had NO central bank and NO national debt.
The problem we face is that it would have been far less inflationary to print the money than borrow it.

The Central banks claim that it is less inflationary to BORROW money rather than printing it.
Monetarism: Printing Money To Curb Inflation - Investopedia
Why Not Just Print More Money? | The New Yorker
Why Can't the Government Just Print More Money to Get Out of debt?

Armstrong, "We have a debt crisis that cannot be paid and the accumulative interest expenditures rose to reach at times even 70% of the national debt. Now that they have discovered NEGATIVE interest rates, they think they discovered a new way to tax people indirectly. They think we are too stupid to realize this is even a tax.

But fear not. We are heading into a Monetary Crisis of untold proportions. If the governments do not listen, they will create the biggest civil unrest in all of history."
One way or another, Trump must wrest control of money origination AWAY from the CBs. The bankers are juct one big club. All origination starts at the CB and passes through the banks FIRST. UBI would channel the money to the consumer instead of the speculator..

"This is the collapse of socialism, for they have promised everything, funded nothing, and cannot keep raising taxes without causing the economy to collapse. This will undermine their entire tax system.

There are ways to deal with this crisis if we have the courage to first admit that we have a crisis. That is step one."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...r-debt-crisis/
The CBs have distorted everything. MUCH of this has been done at the behest of government.
https://confoundedinterest.net/2019/...ive-territory/

What is needed is; a very large number of people must be made aware of the CB ripoff AND, the necessity of UBI.

[Danny B]

war as a "cure" for economic doldrums

Here is an interesting graph of currency debasement.
https://2oqz471sa19h3vbwa53m33yj-wpe...lver-cycle.jpg
Much of the debasement was a requirement of financing wars.
Armstrong; "Trump is a borrower and only sees the world through his personal experience. The people with savings and pension funds are being wiped out."
"I fully understand that the talking heads on TV also portray the stock market from the borrower’s viewpoint just as Trump has done. Not everyone borrows and the big money does not. So if people believe what they want to believe. I prefer to assemble the largest possible database, correlate everything, and see how the world REALLY ticks. So believe what you want. There are always two-sides to a market so I fully respect that it is ABSOLUTELY vital that the major be on the wrong side for that is what makes the markets move."

Armstrong, ;"Willson took a rather interesting view of tariffs. He argued that the system of high tariffs
“cuts us off from our proper part in the commerce of the world, violates the just principles of taxation, and makes the government a facile instrument in the hands of private interests.”
Tariffs were really an additional tax on consumers which Trump does not understand for he is looking only at jobs which is typical. "

This is typical of Armstrong. He assumes that consumption is a given. IT IS NOT.
"The Revenue Act of 1913 reduced the average import tariff rates from approximately 40% to about 26% and the revenue shortfall was to be be made up with income taxes."
Keep in mind that the "Grace Commission" reported that not one dime of your income tax money went to support GOV.
"From 1914 until early 1917, Wilson’s tried to keep the USA out of the war in Europe. That did not sit well with the hawks in Congress."
"All of that said, on the one hand we have Trump against war, as was Wilson, but in favor of tariffs as a tool to win free trade ignoring that they are really a consumer tax and protectionism for overpaid jobs."
We absolutely can not have people receiving a "living wage". America was a high-price & high-wage economy. The money renters would like to maintain the high prices BUT, reduce wages. 3rd grade arithmetic tells you that this won't work for long.

"The Fed was originally designed to stimulate buying corporate paper directly when banks would not lend. Now the Fed stimulates by supporting government buying bonds from the banks who in turn still do not lend to support the economy in a crisis. The very idea why we needed the Federal Reserve has been completely reversed."
The mandate of the FED was completely distorted, first by FED head, Benjamin Strong and later by FED GOV demand that the FED buy war bonds.
"There was a major debt crisis in Europe, but not the United States. This is what wiped out Britain as it lost the crown of the financial capital of the world to the USA. "

Maybe GB should have avoided all the wars.
Side note.
Mike King, "But the one thing this dirty gang could never have accomplished by themselves was to trigger the actual war. As even the most geographically illiterate Boobus Americanus or Boobus Europithicus should know, neither the US, nor the USSR, and nor the UK shared a common border from which to make mayhem against Hitler's Germany.

France does share a border with Germany, but when Hitler permanently renounced any claims to the disputed Alsace-Lorraine region in 1935, a possible flash-point between the two rivals was diffused forever. "
"In November of 1938, the U.S. mid-term Congressional elections dealt a crushing blow to Franklin Delano Roosevelt's Democrat Party. With America still reeling from the decade-long Great Depression, absent some foreign "crisis", it appeared that the failed two-term President would not be able to seek a third term (He ultimately held office until his death in 1945). It should be noted that at this hard time in American history, prosperous Germany was enjoying full employment, a strong currency, the Autobahn, the Volkswagen, and a happy reconciliation between labor and the entrepreneurial class"

"and so, by 1939, the New World Order crime syndicate and the British & French chauvinists had nearly run out of all options and all propaganda pretexts for instigating another war against peaceful and prosperous Germany, as they had done in 1914. The last hopes for starting the war to re-enslave Germany rested on the shoulders of one man, and one man only. His name was Edward Rydz-Smigly -- the criminal fool who started World War II. As is to be expected, his name is virtually unknown outside of Poland. It's high-time this dirty, rotten, ego-maniacal scoundrel gets the posthumous "credit" he so richly deserves. "

"In 1939, supported from "behind the scenes" by elements in the UK, France, and the US (yes, Roosevelt was deeply involved!), Smigly was encouraged to ignore Hitler's sincere and generous proposals for resolving the bizarre and hated partition of Prussia that had caused tension ever since the end of World War I. At one point, Hitler had even agreed to give up claims to western Prussia in exchange for the return of Danzig and a 1-mile wide highway - railway passage linking Germany to eastern Prussia.

Believing that the western powers were truly behind him, the cowardly Smigly 'stood down' and allowed predominantly Jewish-Bolshevik terror gangs to attack innocent Germans; both within "Prussian Poland" and inside of German border towns as well. These gangs of Red "partisans", as well as other Polish ultra-nationalists, had been salivating at the prospect of triggering a Western "holy war" against Germany ever since 1933."
"By August of 1939, Germany had exhausted all efforts to reason with Smigly's gang. Earlier that year, the British and French had even urged Smigly to allow the Soviet Army to march westward, in the event that war should break out with Germany."
"On September 1, 1939, after all German attempts to reason with Poland, France and Britain had failed, and after the Polish military, at the urging of Britain, went on full mobilization, the Germans invaded Poland and liberated Danzig. On September 7, along with most of the government, Smigly ran from Warsaw as it came under attack. The immediate counter-attack promised by Poland's French and British "allies" never materialized.

Unbeknownst to the blinded idiot Smigly, the Allies had no such plans and fully expected not only the fall of Poland, but the entry of Stalin's hordes. The Allies only interest was to have an excuse to declare war upon Germany, and then wait for Stalin to attack Germany from the east, necessarily having to pass through Poland. Stalin was indeed ready to pounce on a distracted Poland, but his move against Germany was to be on his time-table"
EDWARD SMIGLY RYDZ: THE MAN WHO STARTED WORLD WAR II
The long and the short of all this was Anglo-american-french wars as a panacea for a failed economy.
The result of all this;
Did you know ...

... that just 3 days before the start of the history-altering genocidal tragedy that was World War II, Adolf Hitler pleaded for peace with Britain and France. His sincere overtures were ignored as the Allies, under the phony pretext of "protecting" their aggressive and militaristic Polish ally, declared war first!
HITLER'S SINCERE PEACE LETTER TO FRENCH PRESIDENT

Armstrong again, "This time, the debt crisis is systemic. The currencies are showing divergences as they did pre-World War I. But we have a socialist crisis whereas Western economies are collapsing unable to fund all the promises, as was the case with Communism in 1989-1991 in China and Russia. The central banks only keep governments on life-support and there is no direct stimulation of the economy. Every lesson from the past has been forgotten. We have put all the eggs in one basket (government) and we have politics in meltdown as republics are collapsing and the left v right is becoming much more intense which will, as always and without exception, lead to violence, civil unrest, separatist movements rising, and could result in revolutions which increases the risk of international war as politicians need a distraction from their failed domestic agenda.

It is just now our turn to rock & roll."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/a...-to-rock-roll/
Assuming the economy collapses, can Trump hold back the war dogs?

[Danny B]

ECB, screwed either way.,, NIRP, the destroyer,,, Stockman

Once again, my post got zapped. This time, my fault. I have to do the short version.
The Pentagon warns of a complete breakdown of society as mega-cities rise. Just like Robocop andEscape From New York
https://theintercept.com/2016/10/13/...iggest-cities/
That is the projection for 2030. Here is what is happening right now.
https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2019/...st-food-crisis

Disasters causing billions in agricultural losses, with drought leading the way
The Midwest's Farms Face an Intense, Crop-Killing Future
Drought and Extreme Heat Are Killing the World's Crops | Time
Hurricanes, floods, drought and wildfires, 2017 the year of crop losses
Hunger looms as floods destroy crops, sweep away animals in East Africa
Devastating Impacts of Climate Change Threatening Farming
How Climate Change Will Alter Our Food - State of the Planet
Crop Failure A Growing Reality - Earth Changes and the Pole flip
Crop failure and food shortages grand solar minimum and pole flip
Cold and Wet Weather to blame for the Slowest Maize-Planting Season on Record

The emerging solar cycle 25 will be very weak but, our magnetosphere is even weaker. The sunspots may be fewer but, the flares and coronal holes will still affect us. Along with this, we will get a lot more cosmic rays that will bring rain and cloud cover.
You can monitor food production at Crop loss.com, Adapt 2030 and Ice Age farmer
Here are the countries that are most at risk. Keep in mind that crop failures may completely change the list as exporters become importers.
https://www.businessinsider.com/nomu...9#24-vietnam-2
Apparently, you will go to walmart to get your food.
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/wal...hing-when-shtf

9/13 Trump the Russian puppet. A story that just will not die – Strategic Culture
Not until the bombs drop on Tehran.
9/13 Banks seek lower credit score requirements for subprime borrowers – Zero Hedge
9/13 Medical debt is crushing many Americans – Zero Hedge
/13 Another surge in CPI medical care costs – Mish
It's not the doctors getting rich.

9/13 Draghi ties Lagarde’s hands with promise of indefinite stimulus – Reuters
9/13 ECB’s open-ended push leaves it more isolated – Bloomberg
9/13 ECB’s QE: whatever it takes morphs into “as long as it takes” – Mish
9/13 Palace revolt at the ECB, legitimacy of policy out the window – Wolf Street
9/13 The new ECB QE is a mistake. Here is what it should have done – Daniel Lacalle

"Almost all economists and market pundits believe NIRP will be a short-lived phenomenon. However, I have a very different take.
Negative interest rate policy changes the law of economics.
I also believe that NIRP will not only go much lower than almost everyone expects but will be with us globally. Across the board. For much longer than we can imagine.
First, let me explain why NIRP will go lower and stick around for a much longer time than anyone expects.
The general perception of NIRP, using a bond at a -0.5% interest rate, for example, means that if I buy that bond, I will get back less money in the future.
But, the reason why it’s working is the unit cost of the bond is rising significantly. This means the investor who is getting a negative interest rate, is making up for it on the bond price of the unit."

"The price of Austria’s 50-year bond has gone up 28% year-to-date and 8.8%% in August alone. All the while the yield is -0.02% after taxes. That is an incredible return for the bond market unit." "From the perspective of a bond manager, he is aware he is taking the loss on the yield. But, he’s making a 28% gain on the unit price."
So, as long as the CBs pump in new liquidity, the profit never stops.
9/13 ECB’s QE: whatever it takes morphs into “as long as it takes” – Mish
The printing presses can never slow down or,,, the bond market flames out.
https://katusaresearch.com/financial...tted-diseases/

BUT, the CBs have to constantly increase the supply of bonds.
9/13 Mnuchin says 100-year Treasury bond possible – Reuters
So, all the funds and savers who depend on interest income are to be sacrificed to temporarily rescue the bond market.

Stockman, "So, the first thing is to stay out of the casino. By that, I mean the financial-market stocks, bonds, and everything else.

These markets are so artificial. They’re just chasing what the central banks are doing. There’s no honest price discoveries or supply and demand; nobody’s discounting the future of economic growth, productivity, and investment. You’ve got the chart monkeys, 29-year-old day traders who are in charge of the market.

When the big correction comes, there are going to be massive losses, and the panic will be great. All correlations will go to 1—which means everything will fall: the good, the bad, and the indifferent."
What about my safe-haven bonds?
"You can’t be saved by picking high-yielding stocks or conservative blue chips or stocks that provide daily necessities like food—it doesn’t matter. Everything’s overpriced right now because of this huge financial distortion.

When the real correction comes and the central banks are revealed to be impotent and powerless, then everything is going to collapse. You’ll be in harm’s way no matter how clever you’ve been in trying to pick and choose."
"We have to recognize that the 30-year experiment in what I call “Keynesian Central Banking”—which is almost like central planning—is over."
"Remember the Time magazine cover from the late ’90s, “The Committee to Save the World”? It had Robert Rubin, Alan Greenspan, and Larry Summers on the cover. They’re now going to be the ogres who destroyed the world."
As long as it saves the bankers, that is what is important.

"his ferocious attack against the Federal Reserve will tear away the veil that it’s a beyond-politics cabal of geniuses who are safeguarding your livelihood.

He’s going to tear it apart. He’s going to totally besmirch and destroy the credibility of the Fed, at least in the eyes of his base. It’s going to create an enormous political debate about central banking."
"and he’s going to go after the Fed. We haven’t seen anything yet. And I relish the prospect. They need to be beat to smithereens with a strong, lethal political club, and that’s Trump. And after the fragments end up all over the cutting room floor, we can figure out what to do next. But you must take down this institution.

The Fed is the number one, the number two, and the number three enemy of prosperity, capitalism, free markets, individual liberty, and the wealth of people in the world today.
Central banks have to be totally discredited and taken down."
"The one thing that Trump is going to accomplish—as he desperately struggles for re-election—is he’s going to finally rip off the Band-Aid. We’re going to have a real debate about this awful curse of Keynesian central banking.

Let's not blame Keynes for the State takeover of the CBs to do war finance.
"And remember 80% of daily volume in the stock market is essentially either index-driven ETFs or various kinds of quantitative, machine-driven investment strategies. If that ever breaks loose, the market will go through an air pocket, and then it’s all over except for the shouting."
Shouting !!! I want to hear some screaming from the money renters.
"If the stock market cuts through these air pockets down below, the recession will happen instantly, and no one will see it coming—just like in 2008.

I remember in the spring of 2008 they were still talking about the Goldilocks economy. And in November 2008, they were talking about the end of the world."
"I think the odds are that it will happen before then, and if it does, Trump is toast. Elizabeth Warren will be the next president of the United States, and as that prospect becomes even more probable, the panic in the stock market will be something to behold. It will be worse than anything we’ve seen since October 1987.

If you talk about volatility, you haven’t seen nothing yet. Wait until the election gets really in full heat next year."
https://internationalman.com/article...2020-election/

Buchanan; "To Bolton, Trump’s trashing of Barack Obama’s Iran nuclear deal was the first step toward a confrontation and clash to smash the Tehran regime. To Trump, it was a first step to a Trump-negotiated better bargain with Iran.

Bolton’s hawkish stance of confrontation, and conflict if necessary to impose our will, from the Eastern Baltic, to Ukraine and the Black Sea, to the Middle East, Persian Gulf, Afghanistan, the Korean Peninsula, today finds almost no broad support among the American electorate." "It is only among foreign policy elites in Beltway think tanks, the generals who ran the national security state, liberal interventionists in the media"
Don't forget Bibi Netanyahu,
"What Mattis is saying is that Trump’s goal of extracting us from the “forever war” entails too great a risk, and U.S. troops in Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan will have to soldier on, indefinitely."

[Danny B]

ECB sinking beneath the waves

Americans can't very well take a big rise in the price of energy.
9/15 Drone strikes shut down half of Saudi Arabia oil production – Mish
9/15 Cheaper gas puts a cap on consumer prices in August, but inflation rising – MW
Russian State debt is now zero.
"In 2017, total global debt reached an all-time high of $184 trillion (225 percent of global GDP) or, in per capita terms, $86,000 of debt per person on the planet. The top three borrowers in the world - the U.S. (256 percent of GDP), China (254 percent of GDP), and Japan (395 percent of GDP) "
“This leads to a unique situation which points to a high credit worth of Russian bonds, "
https://www.rbth.com/business/330970-state-debt
Russian bonds will be the only ones to survive the default cascade.

Draghi from the ECB is a Goldman Sachs guy.
"And nowhere was this mood represented better than by Germany's most popular tabloid, Bild, which on Friday accused Draghi of "sucking dry" the bank accounts of Germany’s savers, a day after the ECB cut interest rates deeper into negative territory. Next to a Dracula photomontage of Draghi, Bild’s headline read: “Count Draghila is sucking our accounts dry.”
"Handelsblatt, in an article titled "The dangerous game with the money of the German savers",
"That said, there were some complications when Bloomberg reported that Europe's top central bankers - the French, German and Dutch governors - all opposed more QE, as did Coeure and Lautenschlaeger "
But, but, we have to save the banks.

"So just how easy will it be for the ECB - and its new head Christine Lagarde - to force Europe into taking the politically unpopular move of issuing (much) more debt (even with the ECB's MMT-esque guarantee to monetize it) to support the economy."
It supports the bans only, not the economy
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/...onetary-horror
The ECB can print up lots of liquidity but, there is another problem.
ECB is running out of debt to buy – more smoke and mirrors ...
What If the ECB Runs Out of Bonds to Buy?

Remember that Draghi is an ITALIAN and a Gold Man Sachs alumni. That makes him doubly irresponsible.

"And while the Treasury has taken its time in rebuilding the cash over the past month, with the latest Treasury cash balance just $184BN as of Sept 11, it only means the ramp up in the coming weeks will be that much more acute. So acute in fact, that as BofA rates strategist Mark Cabana writes today, "the USD funding storm has been brewing for months and is likely to make landfall in Q4."
"Why does this matter? Since the Fed does not know the minimum quantity of reserves needed in the banking system and it desires to hold "no more securities than necessary" for the efficient implementation of monetary policy, BofA believes that the Fed will likely want to test how low reserves can fall before intervening in funding markets. "This runs the risk of a temporary overshoot on the extent of money market tightness as the Fed plumbs how low reserves can fall before it ultimately needs to start growing its balance sheet."
A game of "chicken" with Trump
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/do...t-happens-next

Interesting article on fiat currencies.
https://www.numismaticnews.net/artic...paper-currency
9/15 We’re bankrupt. Isn’t that worthy of presidential discussion? – FEE
Don't ask, don't tell.
9/15 Cheney, Paul duke out foreign policy split in Trump’s GOP – JH News
Why isn't Cheney's head on a pike somewhere?
9/14 Nuclear war with Russia winnable said Trump’s new National Security Adviser – Mish
Why isn't HIS head on a platter somewhere?
9/15 US war hawk nut case Senator Graham responds to Saudi refinery attack – Mish
OBVIOUSLY , Iran did it.

Zero Hedge with a twist of Douglas Adams writes about economic conditions.
"I look at markets right now and hold my temples, groaning. It as if we have all been drinking what the Hitchhikers’ Guide to the Galaxy calls “the best drink in existence”--Pan-Galactic Gargle Blasters--the effects of which are similar “to having your brains smashed out by a slice of lemon wrapped around a large gold brick.” "
https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/loo...argle-blasters

[Danny B]

Challenging the dollar,,,, deflecting blame ahead of time

Oil To Hit $100? Pompeo Blames Iran For "Unprecedented" Drone Attack That Crippled Largest Saudi Oil Processing Facility

Saudi Aramco describes the Buqyaq facility as "the largest crude oil stabilization plant in the world."
6% of world oil production capacity is off-line.
We're Ready For "Full-Fledged" War: Iran Responds To US Accusation It Launched Saudi Oil Attack

IRGC commander announces American bases and ships "within range" of its missiles.

Will McCabe Bring The FBI Down With Him?
...we should be prepared for McCabe carrying out his threat to bring them all down. We may yet find out what really happened in “Andy’s office”.
YES, bring them ALL down.
Only In Illinois: Wife Of Indicted Political Boss Will Hold Highest Judicial Post In State

Retail Carnage Continues: Forever 21 Bankruptcy Expected By Sunday
"The headwinds for retail are gaining hurricane force."
"National Emergency" - US Business Formation Goes Negative

This is just more bad news for the "greatest economy ever."

Israeli Attacks On Syria Halted After Russia Threatened To Shoot Down Jets
Russia threatened to shoot down any invading Israeli warplanes using fighter jets or their S-400 system.
This is great news. It indicates that Netanayahooo is on his way out. His enemies are Xi, Putin and Trump,,, not to mention most of Europe and the East.

IMF Estimates $15 Trillion Of World's Foreign Direct Investments Are "Phantom Capital"
This total makes up 40% of the world's foreign direct investments, and is the equivalent to the combined GDP of China and Germany...
Any hiccup in the system will turn all of it into vapor.

Europe's Dream: Escaping the Dictatorship of the Dollar ...
https://foreignpolicy
Why the Euro Won't Replace the Dollar - Barron's
https://www.barrons.
EU brings industry together to tackle dollar dominance in trade settlement.
The Rise of the Dollar and Fall of the Euro as International currency
Macron Says the Euro Is Not Yet an Alternative to U.S. Dollar ...
https://www.bloomberg
The Euro At 20: A Victim Of Economic Malpractice - Forbes

In 1989, Armstrong told the Eurocrats that a currency union with out a debt union had ALWAYS failed. They said that they were going to go ahead anyway and, "wing it"

Here is a Spanish language vid from Armstrong, In the prologue (English) , Armstrong talks about his history and, what is coming. He focuses on the fact that the bad design of the Euro will take down Europe.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/a...is-in-spanish/

The BRICs.
BRICS Woes: Plunging Currency Values Belie Talk Of Challenging Dollar
BRICs Discuss Alternative to Dollar | The Rio Times
Is BRICS a True Alternative? - cadtm
'BRICS system' – healthy alternative to 'defunct dollar system ...2014
Brics move to unseat dollar as trade currency - Fin24 2012
Not to be left out;
Could the Renminbi Challenge the Dollar? - Carnegie
MINTs (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, Turkey) - Investopedia
https://www.investopedia.com › Investing › Alternative Investments
4 days ago
BRICS Bank challenges the exorbitant privilege of the US dollar

BRICS countries dump the euro, establish bank – EURACTIV .d
The Root of All Evil? The Dollar, the BRICS and South Africa
GeoEconomics – US Oil Dollars Empire vs BRICS – China ...
The BRICS Initiatives Towards a New Financial Architecture ...
Beyond the Dollar - Institute for New Economic Thinking

Everybody wants to challenge the domination of the U.S. dollar. The Euro could have been an alternative but, Germany could not be talked into a debt union. For good reason. Germans are hard workers,,, southern Europe,,,, much less. Germany didn't want to be hitched up to pull the socialist cart for France.
The BRICs infrastructure bank, along with the Belt & Road initiative could have worked but, Asian cohesiveness was all talk. Chinese dams have cut way back on the water supply for 2 billion people on; the Indus, Ganges, Baramputra and, Mekong.
Then, there are all the problems around the South China Sea.
China is in recession and, going down fast. World trade has crashed and the Chinese are closing down their shipyards.

Armstrong blames the crash of the Euro on socialism. To a certain extent, that is true. The French government spends 57% of the GDP.
Armstrong; "There is a sense of more concern beginning to emerge for the elites are at last starting to notice that this may have gone way too far and it is unfolding as a war against capitalism. Unfortunately, they may have simply overslept way too long. Donating to politicians is not going to save the day."

"While my discussions have been with people who attend these elite conferences that others often associate with conspiracy theories of dominating the world, I can attest that they are no more in charge of the world economy than anyone reading this blog. The Club may have a get-out-of-jail-free card and never are prosecuted, but they ALWAYS lose on their manipulations and run to governments for bailouts. Even there they may have overstayed their welcome when the next one comes crashing down. So much for being in control!'
I can attest that they are no more in charge of the world economy
THAT is a big, steaming load of BS. They set the interest rates,,, the price of money and energy. Everything else follows. THEY are responsible for currency debasement
to finance wars. They are responsible for price inflation that robs us of our purchasing power. They are responsible for supercharging the budgets of the war industries.
they ALWAYS lose on their manipulations and run to governments for bailouts
They make $trillions until they blow the system, THEN, they squeeze the taxpayers to make up their gambling losses.


"The elites I have spoken to know our model and keep an eye on things. The Monetary Crisis Cycle coming due is also the convergence of many factors, not the least of which it is also the Pi turning point for Germany – October 3rd, 1990 German unification. Even the elites are starting to smell a crisis in the wind. But with all the people forecasting a recession now and Trump demanding zero or negative interest rates, I know one thing. They will all be wrong for what is unfolding is nothing like the last debacle which they always predict "

"My discussions have been about this leftist agenda which the elite have ignored as a passing trend pretty much up there with the election of Donald Trump. They want to talk and respect that our computer has been the only thing to accurately forecast not just the bull market in the US shares, the capital concentration into the USA, the slow painful economic recession in Europe which has been like watching paint dry, but also the fact that it forecast the Trump and BREXIT victories, the chaos in Japan, and the trends in India and Southeast Asia not to mention the collapse of the Swiss Peg and the ERM crisis from the beginning of the Euro. They are becoming concerned and I see this ironically as right on schedule for the turning point come January 2020."

"We are headed into a period that NO PERSON can forecast from an opinion perspective for this is not something anyone has seen in their lifetime and you really have to go past the Great Depression before you can catch a glimpse of what we face."

"There is NO PLACE left of the earth that is not moving into crisis mode. Normally, I have been running around the world getting called in from one crisis to another. But they have been isolated crises. Now we are facing crises on every continent and it is all simultaneous. To survive this total complete mess, it will take a computer to monitor everything and sort out the correlations.

This is by far the worst I have personally ever seen on top of the complete meltdown in the civility within politics. This is how republics die. They are not instruments for one side to suppress the opponent. Yet that is now the objective – crush the opposition at all costs. There can be no long-term management of the economy"
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...ear-campaigns/

[Danny B]

OIL?,,,, GM,,,big pharma

Oil Explodes 20% Higher, Biggest Jump On Record
Satellite Images Reveal It Would Take "Months" To Fix Saudi Oil Facility
"US officials "certain" the attack actually originated from Iraq"
Well, shoot,,, bomb Iraq.
Goldman Goes "Lehman Weekend" On Oil: Expects Chaos When Trading Reopens
Our Energy And Debt Predicament In 2019
Many people are concerned that we have an oil problem. Or they are concerned about recession and the need to lower interest rates... As I see the situation, we have a problem of a networked economy that is not functioning well.
The Top 30 IPOs Of 2019 Will Burn A Total Of $12.5 Billion Between Them
IPOs completed during 2019 are projected to be the least profitable IPOs of any year since the Tech boom.

Yuan Extends Losses After China Macro Data Disappoints
China Inc. is shutting down all over the country.
Trump Preparing To Hit EU With Billions In Tariffs: Report
That decision follows another WTO decision which found that Airbus had benefited from illegal state subsidies.
Not happy with just pushing China off a cliff, Trump has picked Europe to be the next victim.
"Liquidity Dies In Darkness": Trillions In Assets Have No Financial Disclosure To Support Them
That is the "vapor" that I mentioned previously.
"We Can Do This For 100 Years": Taliban Threaten More Violence After Trump Kills Peace Talks
Ho Chi Minh — 'You will kill ten of us, we will kill one of you, but in the end, you will tire of it first.'

Former CIA Spook: "Clear To Me That Spying On Trump Was Ordered By Obama"
"It is clear to me that spying on Trump was ordered by Obama. It had to be, no doubt about it. He gets a Presidential brief on what the FBI, CIA, NSA are doing every single day. "
Maybe he missed a day.
Hedge Fund CIO: "The Biggest Market Player Is 15x Leveraged; That’s Why When It Starts Going Wrong, You’re Out"
They can NEVER beat a robo-trader which can sell a billion shares between 2 heartbeats.
"This Is Our Last Resort": 48,000 UAW Workers Set For First Nationwide Strike At GM In 12 Years
"That’s going to have a big effect on the economy..."
It's Official: GM Files For Bankruptcy - BankInfoSecurity
https://www.bankinfosecurity.com › its-official-gm-files-for-bankruptcy-a-...
General Motors filed for bankruptcy early Monday, marking the end of an era for GM, as the troubled automaker now represents the largest bankruptcy in history.

Big pharma says that the judge in their case is biased because he mentioned the thousands of deaths related to opioids.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKBN1VZ0N1
They want him to recuse himself.
The tag team of Trump & Johnson, https://www.zerohedge.com/political/...-establishment

Lastly, There's Nothing Natural About Socialism
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/...bout-socialism
This is completely untrue. There is nothing natural about a State.
A family and clan is a natural genetic group. They support each other because they want to. In a State, we support each other because we are forced to. The State tries to take the natural umbrella of clan protection & support and stretch it out over people who are NOT of our genetic group. THAT is what is not natural.
The Kalergi plan is an old plan to saturate Europe (and america) with non-genetic immigrants to break genetic cohesiveness. They seem to ignore the fact that it will also break cooperation.

The Automatic Earth writes about the new world order with Bibi Netahayahoo as king.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitic...-order-alright

[Danny B]

Rickards on social unrest,,,, a new level of MAD

The whole world has turned against israel because it is led by Netanayahooo. Hopefully, the israelis will toss him out in the upcoming election.
Meanwhile Jim Rickards has a lot to say. The 16 U.S. intelligence agencies war-gamed the economy and, they asked Rickards to give them expert advice on the bond markets. They concluded that the economy is going to collapse. This is kind of a joke because nobody has an economic database anywhere near what Armstrong has.
Here is what Rickards has to say;
"With another financial crisis imminent, Mr Rickards posed the question: who is going to bail out the central banks?

“Your only alternatives are turn to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to basically bail out the world although that is a slow and difficult process.”
"Mr Rickards said some people expect the US Federal Reserve to jump to the rescue again in the next financial crisis.

“What are they going to do if a crisis hit tomorrow? Go to US$5 trillion, US$6 trillion?”
Mr Rickards said the other alternative was to shut down the banks.
“And that’s what I expect will happen. They’ll close exchanges, close banks, close ATMs, freeze accounts.”
To me, this is just simplistic an answer.
"Mr Rickards was quick to point out he doesn’t foresee a dystopian future or an end of the world scenario.
However, he said he did expect the crisis will begin with “enormous social unrest”.
"Civilised behaviour only lasts about three days in the absence of reliable water, food, electricity and all the things we take for granted.”
In a situation where banks are closed and people can’t access their money, Mr Rickards said social disorder will break out “quite quickly”.
"He said the social disorder will be most acute in major metropolitan areas.

To survive this new system, Mr Rickards anticipates communities will shift to a semi-barter system where skills are traded and silver, or gold if you have it, can be used to buy food and other essentials."
Once again, this is too simplistic. You can't break part of the infrastructure and, have the rest working ie fuel & food distribution.
"As the crisis unfolds, the US dollar is expected to become worthless – with gold the primary valuable commodity.

Even then, Mr Rickards said, in his opinion, it was safer to own mostly physical bullion rather than gold futures, options, unallocated gold contracts and ETFs etc."
Wrong again. People will be desperate to get their hands on paper dollars.
https://smallcaps.com.au/jim-rickard...s-future-gold/
He is interesting but, spoken like a true goldbug.
Here is the vid, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ok73IoKxCss

Nassim Taleb coined the term, "black swan". Something that happens that never happened before. There are several candidates.
9/15 Nearly two out of three cyber attacks targeting SMEs – Benzinga
9/15 Oklahoma pension fund cyber attack shows rising risk for munis – Bond Buyer
9/10 The untold story of Notpetya, the most devastating cyberattack in history – Wired
9/08 Warning issued after malware hijacks bitcoin blockchain – Forbes
9/07 4 biggest cybersecurity crises of 2019 to date – Hack Post
Small actors can have huge effects. The tools from the NSA got out into the wild after they were hacked. There will never be a world free of hackers.

The day after the 9/11 attack, I called up the FBI and warned them that a likely target for terrorists would be; take a big model airplane with a small charge of C-5 and, fly it into the side of a CNG or LNG tankship. There was one such explosion . It took out hundreds of square miles (shock and flame). The FBI guy agreed that it was a possible scenario.

Charles Huge Smith writes that the modern drone planes are a "black swan". Nobody anticipated how effective they would be. The attack on the Saudi refinery showed that drone attacks are like malware attacks. They don't cost much and, are hard to stop.
"This is asymmetric warfare on a new scale: $20,000 of drones can wreak $20 million in damage and financial losses of $200 million--or $2 billion or $20 billion, if global markets are upended."
"there really isn't any reliable defense against a coordinated drone attack, nor is there any reliable way to distinguish between an Amazon drone delivering a package and a drone delivering a bomb."
oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith: The Black Swan Is a Drone
Does the world have a whole new level of mutually assured destruction?

Armstrong, "Meanwhile, economic data was released from China showing industrial growth slumping to the weakest rate in over 17 years. The US sanctions are taking a toll with the industrial output slowing down"
"A new Reuters article suggests that Australian insiders within the intelligence agency have reason to believe that China was behind a recent cyber attack on its national Parliament and three other political parties before a general election in May."

9/16 $1m a minute: the farming subsidies destroying the world – Guardian
9/16 Saudi attacks reveal oil supply fragility in asymmetric war – Bloomberg

[Danny B]

The parasites over run the producerts

In ages past, the farmer, hunter, herdsman, miner, forester, stonemason, fisherman, et al worked hard and, some of them produced excess "wealth". They traded amongst themselves to acquire things that they didn't produce directly. Their excess wealth was later stored as the most non-perishable items. Normally, metal and stone. As time past, the increasing productivity of the farmer and herdsman allowed some people to work as craftsmen and, build cities. For ease of trade, wealth was denominated in gold and silver. Those 2 metals were a standard much easier to judge than the value of oxhides or food.

Different tradesmen offered their services to the producers. The bankers was an offshoot of the traders. The banker's job was to efficiently and intelligently allocate capital to entrepreneurs. All that he had to work with was the stored capital of the producers.
Eventually, receipts for stored capital were used as a proxy for the actual, tangible capital. They were easier to transport and, less likely to be stolen. Talley sticks were one of the best forms of receipts because they couldn't be forged.
All this time, bankers were limited to capital that had already been produced. Of course, there were exceptions for things like logs at a lumber mill or, crops in the field.
"Money" was limited to promissory notes for tangible items.

The bankers started fraudulently creating excess promissory notes. The modern monetary system was born.
The gold standard was forced on the bankers from time to time to stop them from creating capital out of thin air. Since the banker added nothing productive to the economy, he was forever motivated to cheat the system.
Since the State was also a non-producer, it too was motivated to support the banker. The State traded regulatory advantage to the banker in exchange for the banker buying government bonds. Regulatory capture was born.

Since a parasite recognises no limitations on growth, the 2 major, symbiotic parasites always blew up the system. It is advantageous (over the producers) for the parasites to legislate away,,, inflate away the wealth of the producers.
The '87....'01...07 crashes were in the private sector. Stocks, tech, real estate.
Armstrong says that the upcoming crash will be in the Sovereign bond market. Though, corporate bonds are looking equally bad.
The 2 mega parasites are creating megatons of new debt. The general belief is that producers will repay this debt as payment is slowly siphoned off from production & consumption activity.

Armstrong writes convincingly that government will collapse. The State is completely entwined with the other mega parasite. ALL the recent stimulus is channelled through the banks. U.S. FED GOV spends 24% of the gdp. How could there be a total collapse of governments worldwide without a complete collapse of the banks?
The parasites are strangling the producers. The producers are falling in numbers. Consumption and commerce are falling. The parasites continue to inflate the debt bubble to compensate for lost profits and taxes. 10 years of stimulus channelled through the bankers has failed to bring a return of commerce & consumption.
The ideas of MMT and UBI are proffered to channel money directly to the consumer to revive the economy.
At one time, the bankers was employed to efficiently and, wisely allocate stored capital to entrepreneurs. The money renters of today are throwing heaps of debt at any stupid idea that they can find. The bankers will fight UBI and MMT because it sidelines them. The rise of automation sidelines the worker. The bankers will call MMT, "communism".
With, communism, the worker is demotivated because the fruits of his labor are stolen. The parasitism of crony capitalism accomplishes the same result. The parasitism of over-taxation is equally destructive for the motivation of the producer AND the entrepreneur.

The bankers and bureaucrats are the direct enemy of the producer. The bankers use continuous price inflation to keep us from dropping out of the labor force. MMT would change this. The battle for control will not be a short one.

[Danny B]

Liquidity crisis,,, repo window,,, QE

The current problem that is emerging is; a lack of funding.
"it now appears that the Fed is once again behind the curve, and this time the funding squeeze could have dire consequences for not only the economy but the market, as the broken repo plumbing means that despite $1.4 trillion in excess reserves, one or more banks are suddenly left without liquidity,"
"Needless to say, such a move - without a clear catalyst - is a clear indication that plumbing in the overnight funding markets has just snapped, and is badly broken to be trading so far above the effective funds rate."
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/so...kes-thunderous

Today's "Watershed" Repo-calypse Is "One Of The Worst Things That Can Happen"

$53.2 Billion In QE Lite: Fed Concludes First Repo In A Decade Amid Liquidity Panic
The first shot toward QE4 was just fired.

Liquidity Traps of Our Own Design by rcwhalen - Sep 17, 2019 4:33 pm
Is the Fed independent? No. The Treasury is the dog and the Fed is the tail

Markets That Live By The Fed, Die By The Fed
The "everything bubble" is not permanent.

Did The Fed Fail: Repo Rate Refuses To Drop
the broadest repo rate has continued to rise and according to BBG data has jumped to 3.9340%.

The FED is trying to do QE via the repo market. It doesn't seem to be working out very well.
9/17 Repo market chaos signals Fed may be losing control of rates – Yahoo!
9/17 $53.2 billion: Fed concludes first repo in a decade amid liquidity panic – Zero Hedge

Charles Hugh Smith, The Four Dynamics of Bubbles
"Financial bubbles manifest three dynamics: The one we’re most familiar with is simple human greed, the desire to exploit a windfall and catch a work-free ride to riches.

The second dynamic gets much less attention. Financial manias arise when there is no other more productive, profitable use for capital. And these periods occur when there is an abundance of credit available to inflate the bubbles."
"Corporations can’t find any other more productive, profitable use for their capital than buying back their own shares (enriching the managers via stock options and the 10% of American households who own 93% of the stocks)."
"So borrow billions at 2.5%, pour it all into buying back your own stock and reap the gains as your stock rises 10%."
Stocks buybacks were previously illegal but, the money renters needed a new way to inflate markets.
"The Fed and other central banks have created trillions of dollars, yuan, euros and yen for corporations and financiers to play with"
https://dailyreckoning.com/the-four-...cs-of-bubbles/

9/17 JPMorgan inherited ‘spoof’ method from Bear Stearns and refined it – GATA
9/17 JPMorgan’s metals desk was ‘criminal enterprise,’ DoJ says – GATA
Once again, the Trump effect. DOJ is going after those who have manipulated gold down for many years.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/th...pulation-fraud

The Macron effect.
https://www.rt.com/news/468684-googl...-france-taxes/

[Danny B]

Increasing volatility in finance

I wrote about the FED repo market yesterday. Obviously, this means nothing to the average person. It is a big signal to the finance industry. The volatility in finance is slowing down demand for credit.
"As Bloomberg reports, today’s surge in Treasury repo rates poses a threat to the market more broadly because traders won’t take new positions without confidence in their ability to obtain funding at consistent rates, "
Overnight financing is the key to driving the economy, leverage.
"This is without a doubt one of the worst things that can happen. In many respects it overshadows the Fed moving tomorrow, because if the plumbing doesn’t work everything starts to break down. "
"It’s a bigger deal than a rate cut by far. It’s meaningless if you put in a rate cut and overnight financing reflects nothing of that rate cut. Which is what’s happening right now."
This is a slowdown that the FED didn't plan on.
"Suffice to say, we’re not supposed to be talking about $ funding markets – the linchpin of the largest & most important (there, I said it) market in the world, US Treasuries – in the same breath as the wreckage wrought in Argentina only a month earlier. We’re definitely not supposed to be saying “the collapse in the Argentine Peso was barely 1/3 of what we just saw in the market that the Fed controls…”
As volatility and rates go up, more money will pull out of the markets. U.S. Treasuries are used as a funding pool for everything in the world.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/re...hrough-markets
This will filter down and affect everything else.

Armstrong, "ANSWER: Capital is beginning to move already. Europe is closing in and hunting taxes. The chaos of Brexit and punishing Britain rather than addressing the economic problems has really doomed Europe.

As you can see, the peak in the PE ratio took place at the LOW in 2009, not the high. When you enter these periods of uncertainty, interest rates, dividends, and expectations of profits no longer mean anything. The primary objective is to park money in a safe place where you get it back. Banks are questionable with bail-in policies and negative interest rates. Now even gold is being targeted. Where else to go but equities?"
Armstrong says that capital will flee public debt like treasuries and, move to equities. I just don't see this. Equities are just too small a market to shove $15 trillion in treasuries in. Forget about $6 trillion in corporate bonds. Various States are making it hard to buy gold without a report. The big money will just file the stupid report and, not worry. A lot of money is moving into silver.

9/18 Fed’s first-in-a-decade intervention will be repeated Wednesday – Bloomberg
It didn't work so, try it again.
9/18 Rate cut odds dip below 50% from 92% a week ago – Mish
"They" wanted to avoid another rate cut so, they did QE via the repo market.
9/18 Illinois pension debt now a quarter-trillion dollars and counting: Moody’s – CB
AND
Illinois state workers highest paid in nation | Illinois Policy
Nearly 40000 state workers to get pay raises under new contract

9/18 Could ultra-low interest rates be contractionary? – Project Syndicate
NIRP and ZIRP are supposed to stimulate the economy. BUT, they wipe out everything and everybody who depend on interest income. Apparently, the negative from the loss of interest income wipes out the positive from low rates. NIRP and ZIRP work wonders for the State that can finance expenditures for free. But, these are expenditures, NOT investments.

9/17 In interview, GATA chairman asks: how far will rigging probe go? – GATA
If it goes far enough, the paper gold market will self-destruct and, gold will go to a price of many $thousands an ounce. Since MANY other markets are referenced to the price of gold, there would be chaos in all other markets.
9/18 Germany “cannot accept parallel currencies such as Facebook’s libra” – Reuters
France vows to block development of Facebook’s Libra cryptocurrency on European soil
The CBs can't very well tolerate competition for their paper.
9/18 Orlando housing prices are up 9 percent since this time last year – Orlando Weekly
9/17 One in four of New York’s new luxury apartments is unsold – NY Times
NYC has high taxes and Florida has low taxes.
9/17 Questions, not answers surround U.S. push to war with Iran – Tom Luongo
Yeah, how did israel manage to launch missiles and drones from Iran?
Every time that talks with Iran looked promising, "Iran" attacked a ship or an oil field or something else.

It looks like Netanayahooo is OUT. This is the best of news. The world can breathe a little easier. The election is close and Bibi refuses to concede. Bibi is charged in 3 big investigations and, will go straight to prison.
His opponent, Gantz is problematic also.
A Dutch court has held a hearing on a war crime case against a former Israeli general challenging incumbent Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in ongoing general elections.
https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2019/...tzin-Netanyahu

"Whatever the outcome, ordinary Israeli Jews will continue suffering under neoliberal harshness, Arab citizens treated far worse, Occupied Palestinians worst of all.

If Netanyahu loses to Gantz/Lapid, his toxic presence will be gone, his destructive agenda to continue under new management."
https://stephenlendman.org/2019/09/i...eyre-governed/