Recession Ending

[future pather]

A certain realtor told me the recession would be over by the end of this year many months ago.

At the time it was kind of hard to picture but my assessment of her and intuition about her told me she knew exactly what she was talking about.

Right now in the US home sales are up, factory orders are up, even Ford sales are up.

These improvements can be attributed to stimulus programs such as cash to clunkers and large credits for first time home buyers.

U.S. recession seen ending in Q3, debate over recovery

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The worst U.S. recession since the Great Depression will probably end in the third quarter, but uncertainty exists over the speed and duration of the economic recovery, according to the most recent survey of private economists.

The Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey of private economists released on Monday showed about 90 percent of the respondents surveyed believe the economic downturn will be declared to have ended this quarter.

This upbeat assessment followed recent government data showing gross domestic product (GDP) contracted at a shallow 1.0 percent rate in the second quarter after sinking 6.4 percent in the January-March quarter.

Recent data, including housing and key labor market indicators, have suggested a bottoming in the recession and the economy close to turning the corner. The economy slipped into recession in December 2007.

The Blue Chip survey's findings are broadly in line with a Reuters poll published last month, which predicted growth in the third quarter, though a brisk pace of expansion was not expected until late 2010.

U.S. recession seen ending in Q3, debate over recovery - Yahoo! News

[future pather]

Fed findings indicate recession may be over

By JEANNINE AVERSA, AP Economics Writer Jeannine Aversa, Ap Economics Writer – 21 mins ago

WASHINGTON – Economic activity is stabilizing or improving in the vast majority of the country, according to a government survey released Wednesday. The findings indicate that the worst recession since the 1930s may be over.

The Federal Reserve's snapshot of economic conditions backs predictions by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and most other analysts that the economy has started to grow once again in the current quarter.

In the new survey, all but one of the Fed's 12 regions indicated that economic activity was "stable," showed "signs of stabilization" or had "firmed." The one exception was the St. Louis region, which continued to report that the pace of decline in economic activity appeared to be "moderating."

Looking ahead, businesses in most Fed regions said they were "cautiously positive" about the economic outlook.

The assessments of businesses on the front lines of the economy was brighter than those they provided for the previous Fed report in late July. At that time, most regions said the recession was easing its grip and some of them reported signs that activity was leveling off.

In Wednesday's survey, the Dallas region indicated that economic activity had "firmed." The Fed regions of Boston, Cleveland, Philadelphia, Richmond and San Francisco mentioned "signs of improvement." The Atlanta, Chicago, Kansas City, Minneapolis and New York regions described activity as "stable or showing signs of stabilization."

Analysts predict the economy is growing in the current July-September quarter at anywhere between 3 and 4 percent.

Most of that growth should come from more spending from businesses, which had slashed investments — often by double-digits — during the recession.

Consumer spending, however, is expected to turn up only because of the binge-buying of automobiles generated by the short-lived Cash-for-Clunkers program. Buyers were given cash rebates to trade in less efficient gas guzzlers.

The Fed's survey found that the majority of regions did report that the government's clunkers program "boosted traffic and sales." But aside from brisk businesses at auto dealerships, other merchants struggled. Consumer spending remained "soft" in most Fed regions.

Manufacturing, meanwhile, reported "modest" improvements. Residential real-estate markets, which were clobbered during the downturn, also flashed signs of improvements. But the commercial real-estate market continued to be a drag in most markets.

Fed survey shows US recession may be over - Yahoo! News

[Aaron]

recession

Jessica,

It would be nice if this, in my opinion, pre-meditated economic crash was coming to and end.

Spokane Washington isn't that big... about 400,000 in the county but there are 10 homes every single day going into foreclosure and we haven't even seen it come down that hard yet.

In about 3-4 months, there are a LOT more houses that are going to be foreclosed on because of the arm loan racket trouble people got suckered into.

With the unemployment rate here and the continually climbing foreclosure rate and business still going out of business...it seems pretty optimistic to say the recession is ending. It may be different in other parts of the country but from what I see here, it is getting worse.

[future pather]

In about 3-4 months, there are a LOT more houses that are going to be foreclosed on because of the arm loan racket trouble people got suckered into.

The thing about housing is the need for it in the US is a continually increasing thing.

(And what a time to be a homebuyer, huh? Low rates, low prices, tax credits, flexible loans)

Sure when the unstable bubbles of certain areas burst it caused problems, but that was inevitable and I dare say the situation is actually healthier now than when those bubbles were at their peaks.

Right now there is an $8,000 tax credit for first time home buyers. Related to that is the fact that right now not only has the number of home sales nationwide been on the rise for several months, but the prices of homes nationwide have been rising now for the past 2 months as well.

Besides the federal tax credit (there are state ones in addition in many cases) another thing that is helping people buy right now are loans that are structured differently than the traditional way but are also different than the ones that got people into so much trouble.

They are interest only loans for 10 years. That will surely give the home values time enough to increase a lot. At that point people can go back to what they were doing before, which is sell that house for a definite profit if they can't make the payments when they reach the interest + premium rate. (In the past people could do that in a short time in because housing prices were rising so quickly in so many areas.)

In addition, for those who have loans now who are threatened to go into foreclosure: Obama passed a law several months ago that says the banks have to work with people by restructuring loans for those who either A) can not keep up with their payments or B) have been able to keep up with their payments so far but are not able to refinance for current lower rates because of the recent economic conditions.


The new figures put the program to combat rising U.S. home foreclosures on track to meet the administration's goal of modifying more than half a million delinquent mortgages by November 1

Obama admin: foreclosure prevention effort on track - Yahoo! News

As always there are private people and companies who are always willing to buy people out of foreclosure situations. The homeowners in this situation may lose equity but they will get out of their loans and usually get some cash on top of it.

Several months ago I felt very badly for many people holding mortgage loans with high monthly payments on properties that could not sell for a profit.

But right now there are so many options to get out of that situation, I would really have to blame somebody if they didn't take one of those options rather than foreclosing.

Besides housing, the economy may also get in the near future:

-Pell grant increases. This gets more people in college and more money flowing in society.

-Options to receive tax refunds in savings bonds. This will help make it easier for people to have savings and more stability.

[Vortex]

Hear no Evil, Speak no Evil, See no Evil

and that's just the way politics works



The guy on the right is doing two hand gestures ..
are these gestures meant to bring MEANING to what the other 3 are doing?
Like maybe the word: Evil?

the "El Diablo" OR "Horned hand"
Signs of Satan!
AND
the "Claw hand" OR Pooth
911:Occult symbolism XVI - Wikicompany

[future pather]

I think it's impossible to have made the improvements I've described without seeing, hearing and speaking about what needed to change.

[Aaron]

real estate

There definitely seems to be a lot of new incentives. That is great if it works out long term.

In my area, I'm just keeping my eye on available properties, listed and private.

At these prices and soon to be better, I'd be crazy not to walk into that kind of equity.

[wantfreeenergy]

I'm not really following it much in my area, cept everynow and again I hear about it and it's still getting worse. It would be nice to have the positive outlook that all will be well, cept money keeps many people unhealthy and unaware. Lets just have a free world what ya all say.

Anyhow here is all I really wanted to say. It's a joke from a sign in my area.

"If pro is the opposite of con; then what is the opposite of progress."

[Vortex]

I missed it

I didn't realize the real meaning of the image I posted.
Look at the picture again.

No Evil

[future pather]

Today Obama is here in Pittsburgh speaking at a conference for the American Federation of Labor and Congress of Industrial Organizations (for unions).

- kdka.com

Word is bond


Next week we get the international G-20 Summit. I'll probably try to stay home during it to avoid mobs but I'm happy that Obama is using some of the most environmentally friendly sites in the country for it like

The David L. Lawrence Convention Center

and

Pittsburgh Attractions | Phipps Conservatory

[BobBrown]

Anouther way to measure national financial health

Elliott Wave International: Expert Market Forecasting using the Elliott Wave Principle


There it is, I can say no more, that will be more effective. If you want to know where the economy is going, then Pretcher's study of elliote waves is the best way to go. They look at the past and look at the time from then to now, and by studying what has happened and why it happened , they have come up with a way of predicting what will happen. Its not perfect, but in my opinion its the best this society has.

Here's my 'IN A NUT SHELL' Since March we've been in a natural laul, easment, in the downward spiral of the recession. People have been feeling better, and this will build up to a point. Unfortunatly the underlying weakness in the economy that percipitate the original 'vissible' recession, is still there. Also now on top of it, we have government depts that have skyrocketed. Hold onto your money, when we are finished with this few months of thinking the worst is over, economic life will get harder, much much harder.

Don't take my word for it.
Read between the lines, where the real stories lie.
Andrew T

Oh yes , and do chk out that web site Elliott Wave International: Expert Market Forecasting using the Elliott Wave Principle it realy is good way of measuring where we are at.

[future pather]

Andrew,

Well certain people definitely have a financial motivation to spread that type of fear and it's a free country so go right ahead.


Jessica

[BobBrown]

I hope its not fear that motivates this

There is not to fear but fear itself.

I have no finacial gain from promoting Elliote Wave Thoery. I have studdied it off and on for meny years ( I'm a terrible studdent, I hate to graduate ). I've spent over 1000 bucks on books, on the subject, and for several years I paid for a subscription to thier monthly news letter. So no, I gain knowthing from spreading this info.

I mention Elliote Wave Theory, in the hopes that others will look at it and come to thier own best sollution.

My conclusion is that at ELLIOTE WAVE INTERNATIONAL Elliott Wave International: Expert Market Forecasting using the Elliott Wave Principle They do and have done a thorough and well thought out investigation, of thier subject. And to the best of thier abilitties have formulated outcomes, that conform to thier data. Telling the Future by looking at the past. And they have been wrong before, and what endears me to them is they admit they were wrong, not just mistaken, no finger pointing. When they are wrong they addmit they are wrong. I like that in a person.

Whats more, they go over thier thought proccess, and help me see how they came to the conclusions, and thereby assisting me in better understanding of what will come next.

As with Paths, Elliote has a considerable sized FREE section, I spent 6 months there. No need to buy enything.

Andrew T.
Proud to be a Paths Affilliate
PATHS ~ Mind Energetics
This one I do make money on
PATHS ~ Mind Energetics

[future pather]

Hey Andrew,

Sorry if that sounded like a personal attack. I didn't really mean to imply that you were the one who would benefit.

I just meant to say there could be some false info out there perpetuated by those who would financially benefit, so be careful.

YouTube - CNN Warns of bank failures - JP Morgan

[rickoff]

Recession ending?

Jessica,

It would be nice if this, in my opinion, pre-meditated economic crash was coming to and end.

With the unemployment rate here and the continually climbing foreclosure rate and business still going out of business...it seems pretty optimistic to say the recession is ending. It may be different in other parts of the country but from what I see here, it is getting worse.

Aaron, I'd have to say that Jessica is probably right in saying that the recession is ending. I also see it ending, but not because of an economic recovery. Instead, I see a depression coming that will make even the Great Depression seem tame by comparison. Sure, spending trillions of "economic stimulus" dollars has bolstered the economy for the short term, but to do that we had to spend vast amounts of money that we never had in the first place. Now we have to pay for those bad legislative decisions, and our cost per person will be roughly $70,000 when the final tallies come in. I don't know about others here, but I have absolutely nothing to show for this indebtedness, and really can't afford it. I'm sure that most people here try to live sensibly and within our means. We wouldn't think of taking out a $70,000 loan and giving that money away to bankers, corporations, special interest groups, and political pork barrel projects in hopes that somehow this would improve our lot in life. But this is exactly what our government has done. Latest estimates show that we now face a national debt increase of around 23 trillion dollars due to those who have imposed these unwanted economic liabilities upon us. That's insanity, when even before this wild spending spree we were already in national debt way over our heads, with practically no chance whatsoever of being able to pay it down, let alone pay it off. To see what I mean, just go to the National Debt website U.S. National Debt Clock and see what we owe as of today. Wait a minute, and then refresh the view. I think you will agree that the increase during that minute of time is cause for great alarm, as it shows that we can't even afford to keep up with the interest payments. So, in other words, we are borrowing more money to meet those interest payments, and paying interest on interest. It's like someone maxing out their credit card, and then only making the "minimum payment" each month. The debt never gets paid, and the amount of the debt steadily increases. There is no way that we could do this with our own finances without sinking into unrecoverable debt obligation, and everyone would surely agree that it is a recipe for inevitable financial disaster. Anyone who thinks things are looking rosy, and that our elected officials are doing a great job, is surely looking at the world through rose colored glasses and is in for a rude awakening.

Just my two cents, for what it's worth.

Rick