Recession Ending

[rickoff]

I appreciate the moderators solution to this. Thanks

Glad you appreciate it, Jessica, and actually, it's the same solution I suggested back in post #156 when I said,

Since you can't change the title of this thread to "Celebrating the good things going on for our economy," perhaps it would be best if you started a new thread by that title.

Good luck in that endeavor, and best wishes to you,

Rick

[admin]

Here is a link to a thread that is for the purpose of highlighting good things happening in the economy!

http://www.energeticforum.com/genera...t-economy.html

[future pather]

Glad you appreciate it, Jessica, and actually, it's the same solution I suggested back in post #156 when I said,

Good luck in that endeavor, and best wishes to you,

Rick

For the record the title of this post was perfect for my purposes. Sorry for anyone who didn't "get it."

But since the National Bureau of Economic Research reports that the recession ended lasts summer I guess it is fitting to move on to another title.

Rick it's great for me to think that I won't have to avoid the whole forum anymore just to avoid you. There is not any part of your interactions with me that I can call productive and I personally like to make progress in life.

[rickoff]

But since the National Bureau of Economic Research reports that the recession ended lasts summer I guess it is fitting to move on to another title.

That wasn't last summer, it was June of 2009 that NBER said the recession ended, based on an economic "trough" that appeared that month. A "trough" is just what it sounds like - a dip in economic activity followed by a rise. All true ends to recessions, or temporary economic downturns are marked by such troughs, but conditions can fall and then rise again in any given month, and then fall off again later. The NBER release had in fact noted that, "In determining that a trough occurred in June 2009, the committee did not conclude that economic conditions since that month have been favorable or that the economy has returned to operating at normal capacity."

Indeed the economic conditions have only worsened since then, and this is nowhere more apparent than in the fact that the US dollar has declined 20% in value against all other major currencies in just the past 4 months of this year. Because of this, and the Federal Reserve's QE2 plan, prices on everything have been increasing and will continue to increase sharply in the months ahead.

The national unemployment rate in June of 2009 was 9.5%, and if the "Great Recession" had actually ended we would expect to see lower unemployment figures today, but the current "official" rate is 9.6%, so what does that tell you? Furthermore, the dollar amount in equity loans that owners have taken out on their homes, just to try and keep up with expenses they can't afford, is at an all time high. In short, we are not out of this recession yet, no matter who paints a rosy outlook saying that we are.

There is not any part of your interactions with me that I can call productive

Well, that's a shame, Jessica. I'm sorry to hear that, but it could only have been productive to you if you had been receptive enough to learn from the truths stated here, awakened to those realities, and taken actions to protect your assets from further decline in value. Feel free, though, to return here whenever you wish, and to post new nonsense that begs refutation.

Best 2 U,

Rick

[Nadda]

Indeed the economic conditions have only worsened since then, and this is nowhere more apparent than in the fact that the US dollar has declined 20% in value against all other major currencies in just the past 4 months of this year. Because of this, and the Federal Reserve's QE2 plan, prices on everything have been increasing and will continue to increase sharply.

This amount of inflation has never been seen in our history. What amazes me even more is that other than republicans no one associated with the government seems to think it was that big of a deal. The FED announced that QE2 stimulus the day after the american people voted for a historic republican victory in the House. I dont know, maybe the FED doesnt care since they're not the ones being kicked out....

No one, inside or outside the Fed, knows the precise effects, or the unintended consequences, of more bond-buying. Giving investors incentives to seek higher yields in riskier assets raises the likelihood of creating asset-price bubbles. The low rates of 2003-04 are believed by some analysts to be a major factor in creating the housing bubble, though Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke doesn’t think so. At some point – well before the economy has completely recovered — the Fed will need to withdraw all the money it’s printing now in order to avoid a surge in inflation down the road. Some investors don’t believe the Fed will be able to do that quickly enough, and fear inflation will result.

From December 2008 to March 2010, the Fed bought $1.7 trillion of Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities.

So to avoid inflation the FED would have to withdraw a couple of trillion bucks? I dont imagine that'll happen anytime soon.

US Home Sales Fall 2.2% In October

Demand for previously owned homes fell in October, putting resales on track for the worst year since 1997 as high unemployment and worries about flaws in foreclosure documents chased off buyers.

The U.S. housing market is struggling to recover on its own without government assistance. A tax credit for first-time buyers propped up sales earlier in the year, but sales plunged after it ended, and home sales had their slowest summer in over a decade.

"A drop in home sales after the expiration of the tax credit was not surprising, but activity is rebounding at a slower pace than we would have expected," Daiwa Capital Markets economist Michael Moran said.

This whole crisis about the flawed foreclosure documents is an absolute shame. Makes you wonder if anybody has been doing they're job lately.. All that it is doing, is helping slow down the housing sector recovery. I live in the capital of ohio and we have about 25% More bank owned properties listed for pennies on the dollar compared to a year ago. I'm talking about hundreds on properties in my city that banks have to basically give away.

That appears to only be a fraction of what foreclosures are left to come. Recovery happening? Not quite.

[Nadda]

(I couldnt edit my post above, i wanted to add this at the top)

Someones opinions will never be productive if people refuse to converse about it and acknowledge the facts. I think most people know well enough Rick that your contributions are very productive. I've only seen a handful of members put as much time, thought, and sources in their posts as you routinely do. Thanks admin for splitting the topic and allowing people to read about all information reguarding the economy.

[Mad Scientist]

I think most people know well enough Rick that your contributions are very productive. I've only seen a handful of members put as much time, thought, and sources in their posts as you routinely do.

I will second that. I spend a lot of time on other forums and your posts are some of the best that I have read, you are obviously well aware of what is going on.
Now if we could just get the average sheeple away from their video games and sport shows long enough to take off their blinders to also see what is actually happening to the country.

National Bureau of Economic Research reports that the recession ended lasts summer

It did? Really? I must have missed it. Just who did it end for? Maybe for a few bankers that got billion dollar bailout deals but what about all those who are not working and can’t find a job? Which by the way is way over the over 9.6 “official” unemployment rate.



YouTube - Quantitative Easing Explained

[Kevin]

I will second that. I spend a lot of time on other forums and your posts are some of the best that I have read, you are obviously well aware of what is going on.
Now if we could just get the average sheeple away from their video games and sport shows long enough to take off their blinders to also see what is actually happening to the country.


It did? Really? I must have missed it. Just who did it end for? Maybe for a few bankers that got billion dollar bailout deals but what about all those who are not working and can’t find a job? Which by the way is way over the over 9.6 “official” unemployment rate.

Well, you got a few bankers, and then you got about 10-15% unemployment...so what about the other 85-90%?

Do you think some of them might be better off now than they were a year or two ago?

I know I am.

I own several business that depend on people spending discretionary income. In October 2008 my income DROPPED, but the last year it has been steadily climbing because people are spending more than they were a year ago.

I also have a small circle of friends and relatives that I am familiar with their job/financial situation. The majority of them are BETTER today than they were 1 & 2 years ago.

I do not know anyone personally that is out of work.

I know many businesses that are looking for employees.

In fact, tomorrow we are interviewing for a full time person in one of our businesses.

I am not saying that there are not serious fundamental issues with the current economy...and those issues must be dealt with. And there is a lot more price to pay in the future for mistakes of the past, and mistakes currently being made.

I had a coach one who drilled into our head...things are never as good as they seem, but the are also never as bad as they seem.

Anyway, thought I would answer your question on who is doing better from my own "main street" experience.

Oh, and one last thought...I have always viewed that being an employee is generally a second best option as far as a method of earning money. Sometimes it may be the best choice, but it certainly is not the ONLY choice for many people. Yet it seems the vast majority believe it is their only choice when considering how to support themselves and their family.

I would propose that many employees, or people wanting to be employed, would be happier if they looked for a need and filled that need, rather than looking to rent themselves out as servants to an employer for 40 or so hours a week.

[aljhoa]

Baron Benjamin de Rothschild Nov.5, 2010

"The American economy is still in the grip of a serious crisis; they have an employment problem that is going to get worse. One of the strengths of the United States lay in people's ability to move from one job to another. That has now come to a halt. They can't relocate because they can't sell their home. The United States is finished, at least for the moment. There will be more oversight, but people will always come up with new financial products that are not amenable to oversight. What's happening is that the firefighters keep arriving after the fire.

It seems to me that both Europe and the United States will face large-scale problems of social unrest. Unemployment will increase and the middle class will lose a large portion of its wealth and its worth."
Family values - Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News

Al

[rickoff]

Good News! The Economy is Under control.

[Nadda]

And there is a lot more price to pay in the future for mistakes of the past, and mistakes currently being made.

Yeah a multi-trillion dollar price tag. I agree that the economy isnt as bad as it could be but i dont think most people realize to the full extent how much we've Paid to keep it where its at today.

We will be paying down debt for Decades due to a recession that only took a couple of years to develop. Whats our choice next time? What if we get hit with another bad recession 15 years from now? What then? Print more money like this time? Our dollar will be valuable enough to blow your nose in.

I agree with the fact that we dont know how bad the exconmy would have turned out without the bailouts but I also agree with the fact that we have no idea how fast it could have turned around by allowing failing business to fail and by allowing new business to be innovative. Will mortage and insurance companies still understand they're mistakes 15 years from now when they look back and remember they were saved when the bottom fell out?

I hope the economy turns around as quick as it possibly can because i already know the people running this place wont stop spending until it does, no matter what the american people think.

[Mad Scientist]

I do not know anyone personally that is out of work.

Well I do. Just loaned some money to a guy to help him pay some bills, he is willing and able to work but can’t find work.

Oh, and one last thought...I have always viewed that being an employee is generally a second best option as far as a method of earning money. Sometimes it may be the best choice, but it certainly is not the ONLY choice for many people. Yet it seems the vast majority believe it is their only choice when considering how to support themselves and their family.

On that I totally agree. I have been self-employed for over 25 years and there is no way I would even think about going back and working for someone else on a full time basis.
Currently I design and build various stuff and things for people who do not know how to build their own stuff and things. Hence my forum name.

[Kevin]

Well I do. Just loaned some money to a guy to help him pay some bills, he is willing and able to work but can’t find work.



On that I totally agree. I have been self-employed for over 25 years and there is no way I would even think about going back and working for someone else on a full time basis.
Currently I design and build various stuff and things for people who do not know how to build their own stuff and things. Hence my forum name.

At great peril, and with respect, and with the acknowledgment that I may just be plain ignorant, I simply cannot fathom how an able bodied person can not find work to do today.

I readily acknowledge that the work they find may be something other than what they were trained to do, it may be at far less pay than they have made in the past, it may be work that is not pleasant, and it may be for so little $ that they will have to completely revamp their finances.

But our economy is not so far gone that there is not still a LARGE % of the population that WILL pay to have their grass mowed, that will pay to have work done around their house or business.

Just today I hired a person full time to work at one of my businesses. She is 34 years old and will be starting week after next.

She has to give notice at her current full time job AND her part time job. She feels bad for both of her current bosses because they have such a HARD time finding people willing to work!

Now how is this possible???? It is in a town in Mississippi that has an unemployment rate of close to 20%!!! And business owners have difficulty finding people that will run a cash register???

So when I read about statistics, I splash the "fact" that there is high unemployment along with the "fact" that people say they just can't find a job against What I Know to be true, and that is, there are businesses all around me that want to hire people but have a hard time finding persons to hire.

Now, there is a flip side that I also know. The gal that I hired today was making $18 an hour a few years ago. Recently she has been making only $8 an hour, and I hired her for only $10 an hour.

Yes, this sucks, and yes, we are in difficult economic times. And Yes, I am working harder now than I was a few years ago, and still making a little bit less than I was a few years ago...just like the gal I hired today....but you know what, she had TWO jobs.

But to say there is no work for an able bodied person???? We are not that far gone.

I think you could plop me down anywhere in the USA, and I could find someone in the vicinity of where you dropped me that I could offer some service to that would have the $ to pay me for that service.

And if I were to ascertain that there truly was no one there to pay me to do something...anything, then I would go somewhere where there was.

Like in my area, Northwest Mississippi, there is a chronic shortage of workers in many different industries. Yep, there is high unemployment, but these unemployed persons, by pure deductive reasoning, are people that don't want to do the work that these employers have openings for, therefore, by more simple deductive reasoning, they are unemployed by Choice.

HOWEVER, if you were to question 100 of them, I would bet you $1000 that at least 90 of them they would say they have looked for work but can't find any...AND it's just NOT true. What is true, is that can't find any work that they are willing to do.

In conclusion, I have no disregard for the serious state of our economy, and that much has to change to prevent the problems from growing larger, and that there is already a big bill to pay for past errors.

Additionally, I have only respect and empathy for the many people that trained in a particular field and were well paid for their work in the past, and became accustomed to a certain level of prosperity, that now cannot utilize their skills, nor find other work that will allow them to continue living as they are accustomed to.

But (and if you have lived in third world countries like I have, you know what I am talking about), this is still a country with great opportunity. There is still a lot of freedom. With freedom comes responsibility. There are no guarantees (or at least there should not be any) in terms of financial success, only opportunity.

The fact that politicians and certain businesses to not operate responsibly does NOT mean that any individual can/should expect freedom without responsibility...as most all of us know, two wrongs don't make a right.

Here's to hoping AND helping, that we will all suck it up and do what needs to be done to maintain the opportunities we currently have, and work toward expanding them!

[Nadda]

your absolutly right kevin, I like the way you think. freedom is pricless, oppertunity is glorious. I think part of the unwillingness to change is just due to routine and comfort. Its a hard choice to make when you have to give up a field you've spent your whole life in to start something radically new. I agree with you that is what people need to do, but i can understand why they may try and wait to find an opening in their same field.

When the economy does turn around and most businesses are hiring again, i think success is a clear black and white decision. You can either choose to work multiple jobs in multiple fields and create a larger income for yourself or you can choose to find one job / one source of income to maintain your life while spending your evenings with your friends and family.

With the oppertunities we have even the poor can become successful, It just depends on how much they want to sacrafice.

[rickoff]

I simply cannot fathom how an able bodied person can not find work to do today.

I readily acknowledge that the work they find may be something other than what they were trained to do, it may be at far less pay than they have made in the past, it may be work that is not pleasant, and it may be for so little $ that they will have to completely revamp their finances.

Like in my area, Northwest Mississippi, there is a chronic shortage of workers in many different industries. Yep, there is high unemployment, but these unemployed persons, by pure deductive reasoning, are people that don't want to do the work that these employers have openings for, therefore, by more simple deductive reasoning, they are unemployed by Choice.

HOWEVER, if you were to question 100 of them, I would bet you $1000 that at least 90 of them they would say they have looked for work but can't find any...AND it's just NOT true. What is true, is that can't find any work that they are willing to do.

In conclusion, I have no disregard for the serious state of our economy, and that much has to change to prevent the problems from growing larger, and that there is already a big bill to pay for past errors.

What you say is so right, Kevin, and and I feel that government has created this lackadaisical mentality amongst those in the workforce by encouraging people to not work. Take unemployment compensation, for example. It is now set up so that an unemployed person simply files a two minute weekly report on their computer stating that they did not work this week, did not refuse any job offer, and that they did look for work. A person can do this for 26 weeks, and sometimes longer, while receiving about 75% of their former pay when they did actually work. Trouble is, a great many of these people end up going the full distance because there is no real incentive for them to find a job until their unemployment benefits are about to run out. And their thinking certainly is logical. If they can receive say $9 an hour for doing nothing, then what incentive is there to take a job at $9 an hour? The system is set up so that if a person accepts a part time job, which is the most likely scenario nowadays, then every dollar they earn is deducted from the unemployment benefit they would have received for staying home and doing nothing. No incentive! Why not instead reward those who pursue part time employment through a work incentive bonus that matches 50% of their earned income? For example, say that person A gets $360 per week drawing unemployment benefits and doing no work under the current system. Person B works 20 hours a week part time @ $9 per hr, earning $180, and receives $180 in unemployment benefits for a total income of $360 under the current system. Person C works the same hours at the same rate as person B, but under a work incentive. Person C receives $180 in pay, $180 in unemployment benefits, plus $90 incentive bonus pay. See how this works? The government pays $90 less per week to person C than it does to person A, who is the typical unemployed person, and yet person C is now doing better financially than person A for accepting the part time job and working for that $90 per week bonus.

Of course this would make no sense at all to government bureaucrats, and neither would another common sense approach to rampant unemployment:

Every person who signs up for unemployment benefits should receive an immediate work assignment for which they will be paid an amount equal to their stipulated weekly benefit payment. After all, they are saying that they are unemployed, but actively seeking work. So lets put them to work immediately! If they don't show up for a work assignment, they are cut off from drawing any further benefits. Such a work program could easily be established whereby any city, business, or individual, could request the services of such unemployed persons to perform various short term jobs. Maybe a city needs a work crew to pick up roadside trash, sweep sidewalks of debris, or sort recyclable materials at the city's recycling center. Maybe a business could temprarily use some workers, but can't afford to hire anyone additional at current labor rates. Maybe an individual has some odd jobs needed done around their homestead, but can't afford to pay the price that services listed in the local newspaper or phonebook are charging. Those requesting such workers would directly pay the unemployment bureau a compensation at the rate of say half what the bureau is paying the worker in benefits, or $4.50 per hour for the earlier cited examples. This of course would have the effect of immediately cutting government unemployment payments in half (a huge amount, saving about $3 billion a week) and at the same time greatly reduce operating costs and budgetary deficits of cities nationwide. Businesses would have an incentive to hire these displaced workers at 1/2 to 1/3 the rate normally paid to employees, and individuals could better afford to pay someone to do odd jobs for them. This would be a win-win situation for everyone, not just those drawing unemployment benefits.

Why can't government come up with such common sense approaches to unemployment? I would imagine that any person here could think of additional ways, beyond the examples I have cited, that the problems could be solved far more efficiently, and far less costly, than in the current manner, while at the same time instilling in people a desire to work.

Rick