Economic pressures

[Danny B]

ZIRP, China,,, the pressure cooker

It's pretty quiet at the moment. BUT, the markets are very skittish about Trump. He talks "protectionism."
Killary and Obummer have both cancelled appearances. Killary has transferred $ 1.2 billion to Quatar.
This coming week promises to be a real shakeout. The bond markets don't look too good. Many central banks are dumping U.S. Treasury debt. Various investors may decide to follow them. The exit door is way too small to accommodate everybody. With the instant transfer of both news and money, things can change very fast.




BOB CONFER: The college bubble is ready to burst Oct 3

The Federalist, Why The Auto Loan Bubble Is As Important As The Student Loan Bubble

Our consumptive power is "fixed" and falling. The feces-for-brains academics who advise GOV are screaming that we need LOTS of inflation. The figure that currency inflation will cause price inflation and a wage-price spiral. The pain of repaying the debt is far less that way. The currency inflation in the upper loop slowly bleeds over to the lower loop and causes prices to rise. BUT, our income is fixed. We just stop buying whatever item is experiencing price inflation. BUT, the things that we must buy to survive are seeing price inflation.


The neo-cons drag us into endless, expensive wars to destroy any State that might be a problem for israel in the future. Killary's plaything, ISIS is specifically trying to destroy the history and culture of these States. Just as the zionists destroyed the Israeli bond market, they have now destroyed the American bond market. America is hollowed out.
Netanyahu: "Once we squeeze all we can out of the United States, it can dry up and blow away."
Trump threatens to break the cycle of endless wars. This won't stop America from crashing. But, it will slow down the final descent.

[Danny B]

The currency market

Here is an EXCELLENT article by a group that has an EXCELLENT track record. If it goes to video, you can move the cursor to close the page. The page will respond by offering the article in the written version.

https://www.caseyresearch.com/cm/urgent-warning-to-every-american-with-a-bank-account

[Danny B]

Hussman Funds - Weekly Market Comment: Far Beyond Double - October 31, 2016Don't Sweat The Election. The Next Crisis Is Already Baked Into The Cake - DollarCollapse.com

Europe and America were high-wage & high-price markets. We are now low-wage & high-price markets on our way down. The consummate fools in academia and GOV seem to believe that creating a credit bubble will bring us high wages. OR, maybe they don't see a connection between wages and consumption??

[Danny B]

https://dailyreckoning.com/the-establishments-been-unmasked/

Armstrong relates that hyperinflation only strikes the peripheral States, not the central ones. Venezuela is definitely a peripheral State. They are going to print BIGGER notes. Venezuela's Currency Disintegrates: Bolivar Plummets 20% In One Week | Zero Hedge

Wind & solar will continue to hurt the carbon-energy markets. Falling costs and tech innovations will drive offshore wind power boom - The Economic Times
As wind & solar are proved to be cheaper, nobody will want to front the capital to build carbon and/or nuke plants. Amazon orders new wind farm in Ohio to help power cloud business | The Seattle Times

Edit:Tyler Durden Blog | Oil Tanks After Biggest Inventory Build In 34-Year History | Talkmarkets

[wayne.ct]

The silver lining in the dark cloud

It used to be there were two parties to every transaction. Now, of course, there are at least three parties to every transaction because there is the ever-present taxing authority that has inserted itself in the middle of every "official" transaction. That brings up another subject, the subject of the invisible economy, but that subject is a distraction and will have to wait.

So, in a macro sense, let's look superficially at the oil business. Party A holds the rights to drill, extract and sell oil. Party B was doing the actual extraction and is losing money and going out of business because they borrowed money to finance their activity for a marginal profit. Party C is the banks, they underwrote the loans which are going bad. Party D, E, F, etc., etc.

Now, the price of oil is down and likely to stay down if Trump is elected, etc.

Which of these parties comes out the other end as a winner? I think the REAL owners are going to come out ahead because they own the REAL assets. Is there a flaw in this reasoning? I would so no. The debtors and the banks and the lawyers that are carrying debt are the groups and individuals that are going to get hurt because the OWNERS will take them to court (or worse)

I don't want to carry this too far, but ask yourself, "WHO are the ultimate owners?" Maybe that is too vague. Think about this question. Who is in physical possession as in the saying, "Possession is 90 percent of the law"?

[Danny B]

The finance industry has no interest in reality

Wayne, Exxon reports that it earns five and a half cents per gallon of finished product. A barrel of oil is sold 48 times before it is consumed. Millions of speculators are bumping up the price of everything. You can easily see the effects where the medical industry has been "financialized".

50% of the cost of everything is for finance. 19% for trash collection,,,, 78% for public housing.
The speculators buy up everything with just a small margin payment and resell it to the final consumer. They live-and-die for the free money that keeps them going. The purpose of the entire finance industry is to jack up the price of everything.
The egg industry in America has a rule; if you buy a load of eggs and don't take delivery, you must pay a 10% penalty. Eggs are the cheapest protein.

The finance industry is skimming everything. Labor's share of the GDP just keeps falling. The speculators are afraid of growing populism.
The hardest landing for markets: A continued rising tide of populism
The finance industry doesn't produce anything and is sucking the lifeblood out of the economy. Debt is growing FASTER than exponentially. Stocks are over-valued by about 60---70%. They don't care. They want to party to continue.
There is an even chance that the FED will raise rates after the election. The potential 'economic catastrophe' that no one is talking about—commentary
That would end the bubble,,,, and everything else.
EVERYTHING is focused on providing a good standard of living to the non-producers. Interest rates are driven progressively down to keep them going. Retirement Dreams Becoming Nightmares - The Daily Coin
The whole economy is gutted to keep an enormous finance industry flush. They don't like Trump because they feel that he will end the party.

https://dailyreckoning.com/the-dam-is-breaking/

THE PARTY IS GOING TO END ANYWAY.

The S&P has rolled over and it is the end of story; The Last 3 Times This Happened, The World Was Gripped By Financial Crisis | Zero Hedge
The FIRE economy was never sustainable because it never produced anything.

[Danny B]

Holding pattern

The stock market is at all-time highs,,, MARVELLOUS. Just one small problem.
"Retail participation is at best 55% down from 65% in 2007. Liquidity, however, is still off by 50%."

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/gold/stock-market-crash-gold-rally/

"So grab your socks. We are off for a bit of volatility. Keep in mind Trump would be great for a domestic market rally. Cutting corporate taxes to 15% will bring home $3 trillion to say the least. The Reagan Tax Cuts resulted in the Dow rising 600%." https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...ion-next-week/

The ILLUSION of democracy is slipping away everywhere. https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...ot-the-people/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/corruption/war-economics-just-follow-the-money/

Kentucky Plans to Pull At Least $800 Million From Hedge Funds

[Danny B]

Trump & volatility...... Fourth Turning

Here's an article about how a Trump victory would affect markets.
"Probably, a TRUMP Presidency would see the logical 'way out' to clean up our economy which is largely based on artificial 'bubble-assets' would be simple: RAISE RATES. What would happen if the Fed raised rates to 5%, 10%, or more? "
"Low interest rates are good only for asset inflation, speculators, Wall St., big government, hedge funds, investment banks, and really really rich people."
"Wall St. may be preparing for such a scenario, which would bankrupt half of the S&P, as public companies have become addicted to QE so much, like a crack addict, they forgot even what their core business is. They just need to refinance, re-allocate, and retain. QE has become the core business of more than 50% of public companies."
How Will TRUMP Victory Impact FX And The Dollar?

You may think that 50% bankruptcy sounds like a worst-case scenario. Read this and you will change your mind. CIVIL WAR II – FOURTH TURNING INTENSIFYING (PART I) – The Burning Platform



The foreign exchange (FX) market turns over about $5 trillion a day. It does NOT have circuit breakers like the stock markets (10% drop). If most traders sit on the sidelines for the election, any moves could be seriously amplified.
Wall street is locked in and addicted to the war business and huge subsidies. They are afraid that Trump will end this. Our debt is growing faster than exponentially. It is going to end anyway. Americans are famously short-sighted. American investors are completely blind to their risk exposure.

Private banks control the FED. When our wages crashed, it became obvious that the banking system was way too big. They turned on the free money spigot to survive. With the flood of new capital,,, and the lack of demand for credit,,, interest rated crashed. ZIRP is now wiping out all interest income and killing the banks. The banks postponed their demise but, they will take down the entire financial system with them.
Chinese dumping of dollar debt is (de facto) controlling the dollar and maintaining ZIRP. This will bring down the West. BUT, it is a poison pill for China. They don't have a well-developed safety net. Their revolution will be particularly deadly.

[Danny B]

The ongoing currency war.... Quiet for now

The Killary corruption news is coming fast and furious. The markets are holding their breath to see the fallout. The markets are just waiting for some prick to come along.
The bubble is slowly deflating;
"The dollar fell for a sixth straight day, the longest stretch of losses since March"
U.S. Stocks Post Longest Slide Since 1980, Bonds Rise Amid Angst - Bloomberg

You just can't win if your currency is strong.

The markets are anti-Trump because he talks "protectionism". BUT, a currency war is also a form of protectionism. There is no winning either type of war.

To get the feel for the latest mood in the world, just check the "EGG".
The Global Consciousness Project

[Danny B]

Monetary policy..... fiscal policy.... brain dead policy

Saudi has figured out how to solve financial problems;
"The government owes its success to temporarily escape crisis to unpaid bills rather than sustainable spending cuts.

The government has reduced or suspended payments that it owed to construction firms, medical establishments and even some of the foreign consultants who helped to design the economic reforms, Reuters added quoting the experts. The estimated unpaid dues for construction firms alone totaled 80 billion riyals."
PressTV-‘Worst of Saudi economic slump yet to come’
Financial Repression AuthorityCIVIL WAR II – FOURTH TURNING INTENSIFYING (PART 2) – The Burning Platform

It was a hell of a party
What a brilliant inspiration. Japanese lost interest in babies and sex and the population crashed. China avoided 400 million births with it's "one child" policy and it has a demographic crash. It seems like you need to have people to have an economy.

[Danny B]

eighteightDoug Noland Interview: "In The Next Crisis The Fed's Balance Sheet Will Hit $10 Trillion" | Zero Hedge
Working in concert, the CBs have morphed a an American crash into a worldwide crash.
Doug Noland thinks that the Japanese CB will be the first to crash. By all rights, the banks should have crashed in '08. They postponed their day of reckoning and now we all are going to have a day of reckoning.

The S&P has rolled over. The small caps have rolled over; These 3 Charts Should Scare the Bejesus Out Of You! - munKNEE dot.com
David Stockman thinks that the election will shock the markets; David Stockman Warns Both Trump And Clinton Could Lead to 25 Percent Market Plunge
"Stockman posits that, under a Clinton administration, official investigations and new hacked email disclosures from Wikileaks will be non-stop. Furthermore, he reasoned that the "house will become a killing field" for anything Clinton is trying to do. Ultimately, Stockman said the Democrat would enter the Oval Office bruised, bloody and all but lacking in legitimacy."
"From here, Stockman reasoned that with a paralyzed congress, a soon-to-expire debt ceiling, a powerless central bank and a market that's been flat for 700 days, that the pieces are in place for a crisis. "
Debt ceiling?? I thought that went away a long time ago.

As long as it wasn't MY $100 billion, I don't care.

[Danny B]

Workers vs retirees

I read and read, and find little of any import and/or honesty. ZIRP has crashed all interest-income. The pension funds are dying. This pits (mostly) government workers/retirees against taxpayers. U.S. GOV has $ 212 trillion in unfunded liabilities so, they are going to try to fleece the taxpayers.
Dallas "Pension Fund Panic" As Mayor Warns Of 130% Property Tax Hike To Avoid Collapse | Zero Hedge
I can't find anything else that is fit to print.

[Danny B]

Egon von Greyerz,,, Japan, the detonator... China, the bomb

The bankers aren't actually productive so they have to depend on constant currency inflation to keep them in business. Bankers can NEVER be trusted to run the show. BUT, they use our money to buy the politicians and get what they want. They always, eventually collapse everything.
"In 1971 the US Federal debt was $398 billion. Forty years later the US will have a debt of $20 trillion by the time the new president comes into office. That makes a compound annual growth rate of the debt of 9%
The FED has been run by jews for many years. The jews hate Trump. I doubt that they will let him expand the federal debt.
Egon Von Greyerz Blog | Gold Has No Place In A Modern Monetary System! | Talkmarkets

"In every case of hyperinflation in history, it has always affected just one country or region. Between 1700 and today, there have been around 150 instances of hyperinflation in various countries around the world. When a country has defaulted on its debt, any foreign creditors obviously had to write off their claim. So far these write-offs have been manageable. However, the coming period of major defaults will involve such astronomical amounts on a global scale which cannot be absorbed by any country."

"The coming global hyperinflationary period is unlikely to last more than a few years. During this period, there will be debts of a magnitude that computers are unlikely to cope with. Before the world can get on a sound footing again, all this debt must disappear. There is clearly no chance of ever paying it off. And there is no possibility for the world to grow again as long as this debt is overhanging the world economy. Therefore, the only solution is an implosion of the debt. But when this happens, all assets financed by this debt will also implode in value. This will create a global super depression that will be devastating for every individual on earth. It will also involve a major reduction in world population due to poverty, famine, lack of medicine and hospital care, decease, social unrest and wars."

The article is written by a gold-bug but, that doesn't mean that it is incorrect. Jim Rickards claims that the IMF will just print up a trainload of SDRs to recapitalize the world's banks and governments.

Think the PBOC is going to swallow a ton of electronic money controlled by the IMF?

Japan is expected to be the detonator that sets off the system, Is the World's Number Three Economy Headed Towards a Fiscal Crisis? | The National Interest Blog
China, for their part, are actively trying to blow the FED off the face of the planet.
China added $45 trillion in debt. What could go wrong with adding debt as the economy shrinks?

We're living on money that we ain't made yet. 5 oclock World
Bet they wish they had a printing press.
ALL the banks are chained together by dollar exposure AND derivatives. When one goes over the cliff, most will be dragged down.

https://matasii.com/watch-the-eu-banks-after-us-election-gyrations-are-over/

[Danny B]

No retirement security..... bumpy financial road

Times are tough;
Citi downgraded Goldman Sachs
Goldman Sachs downgrades Citigroup
The FED is locked into ZIRP. ZIRP is killing all the retirement funds. But, nobody seems to be worried "2015. J.P. Morgan finds that an alarming number of people are not even interested in saving. In 2015, only 48% had tried to calculate how much money they would actually need to save for retirement."
Retirement Reality: 10 Charts You Need to See - Page 2
Not to worry, GOV will make everything right
" A Fidelity analysis estimates a 65-year-old couple retiring in 2016 will need $260,000 to cover health care costs in retirement, excluding long-term care " No mention of food and rent?

"But here's what is frightening: Fifty percent of baby boomers also have $100,000 or less saved for retirement.
That's not even the worst news, though. According to the same PWC survey, 25% of baby boomer workers have already taken money out of their retirement accounts for non-retirement expenses. What's more, 36% think they'll need to pull money out of their retirement accounts for non-retirement expenses in the future."
Half of American Baby Boomers Face a Frightening Retirement Reality: But There's Worse News Incoming -- The Motley Fool

Even the Navy is having money problems. It's new ship fires $1 million rounds. SO, it can't afford new ships. "It originally planned to build 32 of the stealth ships, but cost overruns led the service to eventually reduce the number down to just three. " The Navy can't fire its awesome new gun because the rounds cost nearly $1 million each - Yahoo Finance

https://srsroccoreport.com/the-presidential-election-wont-stop-the-mother-of-all-deflations/

The Global Bond Bubble Is Ready to Burst | Alex Barrow | FINANCIAL SENSEhttps://www.nestmann.com/were-screwe...a64b28967ae224
I certainly didn't get my fair share.

And, how are the kids doing? "The scariest graph is the one that shows student deb (owned by USG) going from 100B to 1T in a matter of 8 years. It is incredible."

http://wolfstreet.com/2016/11/08/portrait-of-the-american-debt-slave-as-of-q3/

[Danny B]

Too much oil will continue to drag down the finance sector

President-elect Trump is going to have the shortest honeymoon in history. It looks like the GOP will have both houses but, we can expect gridlock anyway. The default cascade will definitely hit during his term.
The finance sector is HIGHLY dependent on cash flows from the energy sector. The recent oil crash created a crash in the financial sector. The mass bankruptcies of energy producers killed parts of the finance industry. As various States crashed financially, they tried to pump ever-more oil to make up for the fall in revenue.
This has created the biggest oil glut in many 34 years.
Then, there is the problem of wind, solar and natural gas cutting into the market for oil. The oil producers are trying to reach a deal for cutbacks BUT, there is just too much production coming into the markets.

"But if the deal is to count for something, the cuts will have to be much deeper to offset the additional supply from the four countries demanding to be exempted from the pact. The onus will almost entirely be on Saudi Arabia, but a cut of more than 1 million barrels per day of production might be too much to ask for."
Saudi is already crashing financially.$30 Oil Or Worse If OPEC Fails | OilPrice.com

You can see what all this would do to domestic American oil production AND the finance industry.
OPEC is fighting a losing battle; OPEC Is Now Irrelevant ? This Oil Price Plunge Is Different | OilPrice.com

Oil?s Biggest Threat: Demand To Peak Within 15 Years | OilPrice.com
This will continue to drag down the finance sector.