Economic pressures

[Danny B]

Fifth part

There must be something objectionable because I had to break it up again.

"abundant resources" is the government dole. "delayed sexual activity" certainly does NOT describe the average immigrant from islamic societies. "competition for limited resources among members." holds true for those who want to provide a good upbringing for their offspring. For those people who just want to pump out babies and abandon them, there is no great limit of resources. They just don't need as much. This mindset makes it easier for the ignorant to out-populate the thinking people. Especially when the bleeding-heart liberals support the breeders.

Keynesian economics demands an ever-growing credit bubble. Japan shows us that you must have a growing population to have growing consumption. The people who push tainted immigration into the U.S know that they won't have the trash living in their neighborhoods. They just want more warm bodies.

[Danny B]

Bond vigilantes, dollar short-sellers,, Trump will have his hands tied

Wiki; "A bond vigilante is a bond market investor who protests monetary or fiscal policies he considers inflationary by selling bonds, thus increasing yields.[1]

In the bond market, prices move inversely to yields. When investors perceive that inflation risk or credit risk is rising they demand higher yields to compensate for the added risk.[2] As a result, bond prices fall and yields rise, which increases the net cost of borrowing. The term references the ability of the bond market to serve as a restraint on the government's ability to over-spend and over-borrow."
When GOV over-prints, bond investors demand more spread to compensate for lost purchasing power of their capital+interest. Historically, they would also flee into gold to preserve wealth. With the FED monetising the debt and buying treasury bill issuance, bond vigilantes have less influence. Starting in the late 70s, GOV began to manipulate the gold markets to keep investors out.

FED GOV credit markets are "worth" about $ 40 trillion dollars. The average taxpayer is on the hook for about $ 167,000. This will never be paid. It also appears that "they" can never inflate away the pain of repaying all this debt. One could speculate on a total collapse of sovereign debt as Armstrong has forecast.
Besides the bond vigilantes, there is another group that keeps a good eye of the FED flow of funds. These are the short-sellers. They have recently piled on to short-selling the dollar.
This is an excellent article and I'll link a few of the VERY interesting graphs that show a very painful reality.
Treasury Specs Are So Short, It Is Now A 4 Sigma Event | Zero Hedge

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/01/01/10Y%20futs%20net%20specs_0.jpg

http://www.24hgold.com/english/news-...eepcaster&mk=1 Lots more info.

More cool graphs;

https://econimica.blogspot.com/2017/01/wilshire-5000why-its-gone-to-moon.html?m=1

Actually, EXCELLENT graphs.

[Danny B]

https://dailyreckoning.com/china-may-soon-shock-market/

A strong Yuan brings a crash in exports and manufacturing.
A weak Yuan brings capital flight and an eventual end to dollar reserves.
Trump has talked equal tariffs to & from China. The Chinese reply is; bring it on. Capital will flee to the best managed economy and that is NOT China.
Chinese businessmen export goods with an inflated invoice. Upon receipt, the receiver pays the agreed-upon(lower) price and deposits the difference in a foreign account for the exporter.
This difference in invoicing has moved about $ 900 billion out of China last year.

[Danny B]

Trump Takes The Final Currency War Thermonuclear, Puts Gold Cartel On Notice! | SilverSeek.com

Here is an article about credit tightening in 1937 causing a huge contraction in the economy. These contractions are always in the upper loop and have little effect in the lower loop. The exception is; a contraction in liar-loans to people who are debt saturated. Liar-loans are in full bloom in the auto sales industry. This is part of the obummer stimulus to pave the way for Killary. If the PTB want to hand Trump a contraction, they can just stop liar loans.
2017?Shades of 1937 | Paul Kasriel | FINANCIAL SENSE


Spanish bankers were sentenced to fines and jail time for fleecing their banks. They ignored the fines and demanded that the sentences be withdrawn. It didn't work out very well for them. Spanish bankers sent to jail in landmark ruling - The Local

The Eurozone was a BAD idea and was built on fraud. The architects ignored the debt history of the weaker States. The southern States had a long history of devaluation and default. They were locked into the strait-jacket of a common currency. The EU was to be a socialist heaven with a fascist control mechanism. Socialism always breaks the bank because of it's underlying mantra. "to each, as to his needs" ,,, From each, as to his abilities." Ignore human nature at your peril.
Euro Crisis Deepens This is an old article but, it shows that nothing has gotten better.

The economy runs in cycles but, pension managers figure that the good times will never end. The Dallas Pension Fiasco Is Just The Beginning | Zero Hedge

[Danny B]

Understanding the effects of GOV expenditures

Vids;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R_AoyucDOw0 The IRS couldn't be bothered to collect taxes from the rich.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YZM5hxF35No GOV paid tons of money for scanners that don't work well when dogs work VERY well.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cuuRBoICEMQ Waste in Medicare
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U0qc0ZfXwMY $ 75 K to repair a few bicycles.
Ammo, 14 1/2 million bullets bought,,, 15 fired. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5REI-_WJKuY

$20 million spent on firewood for Afghans, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n_xsPZW5n3s
$900 billion waste in Medicare, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZDszvp8_ffA
Then, it gets surreal, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l2d1OOjeqmU

Socialism is the firewall between Darwinian pressures and those who have no job niche in private enterprise. The more that we automate, the more people who are left out of the private sector.
GOV can print money but, it has to inject it into the economy. U.S. GOV reportedly spends 24% of the GDP. How then, to get the money from the digital printing press, into circulation in the economy.
GOV "wastes" trillions of dollars by pumping it into the economy. The money costs nothing to GOV so, why not? It employs a lot of people.

F-35 Turkey Crisis Soars To $1.5 TRILLION
F-35 Is UNFIT For Combat Ops - Pentagon This Junkpile Still Has Over 276 Defects
US Navy's newest $12.9bn supercarrier doesn't work: Most... - Daily Mail
Congress Buys the Navy a $400 Million Pork Ship - POLITICO Magazine

Almost everything FED GOV does is some kind of job program. The money costs "Nothing". The amount is added to the federal debt pile. Total outstanding federal debt is about $ 40 trillion, all included. The working classes are employed in GOV "jobs" programs. The working class people are expected to repay the federal debt with their taxes.
So where did the money come from? How is it going to be repaid?

The money was created as debt in the bond market. The bond buyers were told that it is risk-free,,, even though all States eventually default. The working poor were expected to pay this debt through taxes and currency inflation. More money printed to pay old debt. Historically, 50% of the burden of repaying the debt was erased through inflation.
GOV minimises reported inflation to keep bond buyers coming back.

"as of March 23rd 2006 the government will no longer be publishing the M3 money supply data." " M3 tracks what the big boys are doing with the money. This includes US dollars held in banks in Canada and the UK"

http://inflationdata.com/articles/2006/03/16/goodbye-m3-what-is-the-government-hiding/

War is another GOV jobs program but, war is expensive, "Pentagon being unable to account for up to $8.5 trillion in taxpayer funding. "

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-08-19/government-report-finds-65-trillion-taxpayer-funds-unaccounted

"Alibaba'a Jack Ma Drops a Redpill in Davos: The U.S. Wasted $14 Trillion on Wars Over the Past 30 Years" http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...-past-30-years
It wasn't wasted. It killed lots of little brown men and made a lot of people rich. It furthered the interests of israel. Though, in the long term, this is doubtful.

Trump has a different idea, Trump Plans 20% Cut of Federal Work Force
Read more: https://sputniknews.com/us/201701181...ral-workforce/

http://www.thedailysheeple.com/surveys-show-global-trust-at-all-time-low-as-central-governments-are-losing-control-worldwide_012017

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/13/trust-in-ceos-plummets-and-hits-all-time-low-global-survey.html

The fireworks start soon.

[Danny B]

Shrinking productive sector,,, growing parasitic structure

GOV has historically given "welfare" to people who would never make it in the private job market. GOV has historically given make-work jobs to people who were employable to some degree. For useless people with a degree, GOV employs them as bureaucrats. 1 out of 11 in the Beltway is a lawyer. The American legal system is set up specifically to employ and enrichen lawyers. Search, American rule (attorney's fees)

"countries with bigger government experienced less growth, and concluded that there would be much more prosperity if those nations merely reduced government " "general government compensation of employees grew faster than nominal GDP over the whole 2007-2014 crisis period"

https://fee.org/articles/overpaid-bureaucrats-literally-distort-the-entire-economy/

https://cei.org/blog/overpaid-bureau...number-and-pay

"student,,, Loans are easily accessible for students, and universities are constantly raising rates because those loans are so easily accessible, "
Yep, GOV makes money available and the bureaucrats continually raise rates. GOV made money available for real estate and,,, prices went way up.

https://sputniknews.com/society/201701191049746928-american-millenial-net-worth/

So, what happens when GOV blows a bubble in student loans? "latest loan total number over $1.4 trillion, rising at a pace of nearly $100 billion per year, but that the government - either on purpose or due to honest miscalculation - was not correctly accounting for the true extent of delinquencies and defaults."
"many more students have defaulted on or failed to pay back their college loans than the U.S. government previously believed."
"A spokeswoman for the Education Department said that the problem resulted from a "technical programming error.""
"How bad was the data fabrication? When The Wall Street Journal analyzed the new numbers, the data revealed that the Department previously had inflated the repayment rates for 99.8% of all colleges and trade schools in the country."
"Previously, the Department said that 67% of its students were repaying loans within seven years of entering the repayment period. That number fell to 47% after the recalculation."
US Government Caught Massively Fabricating Student Loan Default Data | Zero Hedge
The cost of an education inflated at 3 timers the rate of general inflation. Everywhere that GOV makes money available, prices shoot up.

Millions of useless bureaucrats are spending $ billions into the economy. Should the bond market blow, this will all come to an end.
And what do the bureaucrats do to justify their jobs? http://www.investors.com/politics/ed...r-on-children/http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/2211...o-steps-taken/

[Danny B]

Populism,,, a danger to corporatism

The Central Banks could easily produce the amount of money needed by the economy BUT, the private banks wanted a big piece of the action. The BIS pushed this worldwide; the private banks must be allowed to create the money, NOT the CB. Our wages are taxed. Our NECESSARY transaction are taxed but, their speculative transactions are NOT taxed. We vote,,, they take the shortcut and just buy politicians. WE produce, they consume. The money has gradually risen up to those who are best at siphoning off wealth.

All democracies eventually go bankrupt when the populace discovers that they can vote for themselves the whole pie. America is a democratic-republic to avoid the failings of a pure democracy (mob rule). The money powers have strangled democracy with corporatism. The pendulum has swung away from popular control. The blessing of having the reserve currency has allowed America to have a VERY generous pay scale in the public sector. This has gotten out of control and the public sector is going bankrupt. The Hegelian dialectic has come to it's eventual end.

Meanwhile, the private sector has gone broke. The triumph of corporatism over democracy has left a destroyed private sector. In response, people see that they don't really have democracy. The election of Trump was a political hand-grenade voted in by people destroyed by corporatism.
The rise of "populism" is seen as a great danger by the money powers,,, those same money powers who killed our standard of living with regulatory capture.
Forbes Welcome

The money powers scream about populism and turn a blind eye to debt; http://media.wix.com/ugd/1f610b_f878...9f89a27f60.pdf
The EU is going down FAST, partly because of the enormous cost of the bureaucratic overload imposed by Brussels.
The economies of the West are crashing. The predations of the bankers and bureaucrats is just a load too heavy. Public employees are NOT embracing populism because it threatens the public food trough that sustains them. Finance sector employees are not embracing populism because populism threatens the regulatory-capture that continues crony-capitalism.

Janet better have a well-padded helmet.
The PTB have barely started to get an inkling of what the problem is.
The rotten 8astards who run the EU are chitting bricks over the fact that Trump has no particular interest in talking to them. https://www.apnews.com/37402db309e0482a922fc159f4e61dd1
What's worse, Marine Le Pen was seen in Trump Tower. That piece of dung, Junker is starting to panic, Hands off EU, Trump; we don't back Ohio secession: Juncker | Reuters

Trump can spread a HUGE populist contagion around the West. The corporatists can only blame themselves for using regulatory capture to destroy democracy in the name of increased profit. Socialism and communism rise as a response to fascism. We were OK with democracy. When they murdered democracy in the name of profit and killing emergent socialism, we responded with populism. It's too late now to backtrack.

[Danny B]

https://ci3.googleusercontent.com/pr...es/grafica.pngThe economy wanted to correct twice and the bankers and politicians wouldn't allow it.Inflate or DIE! - Bill Holter | Silver DoctorsNobel Prize Winner Tells Davos' Elite, US Should "Get Rid Of Currency" | Zero Hedge

If you look at ALL the numbers, the stock market is not worth the trouble, https://realinvestmentadvice.com/3-t...ly-optimistic/The Truth About Venezuela's "Economic War" | Zero Hedgehttp://www.forbes.com/sites/nishthac.../#660a466542ef

Both Mexico and Venezuela have LOTS of oil. Oil production is growing around the world. It has FALLEN by 25% in Venezuela. The socialists always seem to pass out a bit too much money and forget to maintain the wealth-producing mechanisms. Venezuela has it doubly bad. Imported food was so cheap that they let their home-grown agriculture sector wither away. Taking a clue from this, Mexico is building up their domestic agriculture sector.

[Danny B]

Debt limits, debt clocks, math errors,

Thin-air money is pouring into everything in the upper loop. How long can it go on? The FED is buying up Treasury bonds. What is the limit that they can buy.
Same for stocks. The various CBs are buying everything in sight. How long can it go on?
" At the moment, every US citizen owes over $205,000 with $7,600 interest, with every American family owing nearly $810,000." How are we going to pay this off,, with our government pension?
"It shows that when Obama entered the Oval office in 2008, the national debt stood at $10.7 trillion. Thus, the increase is 86 percent.

By the time Donald Trumps is sworn in, the debt will have grown to almost $20 trillion." "The largest budget item is Medicare/Medicaid which has seen over $1.1 trillion added to US debt. Social Security accounted for $900 billion"
Cut them back and people will freak out and die. Don't cut them back and the bond market will blow that much sooner.

https://www.rt.com/business/374384-obama-administration-us-debt/

Don't forget State level debt, State of California Debt Clock
Just like Venezuela, politicians promised TOO much. As the holder of the reserve currency, we were able to extend-and-pretend longer that the rest of the States.

repost; "latest loan total number over $1.4 trillion, rising at a pace of nearly $100 billion per year, but that the government - either on purpose or due to honest miscalculation - was not correctly accounting for the true extent of delinquencies and defaults."
"A spokeswoman for the Education Department said that the problem resulted from a "technical programming error."
OK so, what else is going to come crawling out from under the rug?California Governor Jerry Brown Admits To $1.5 Billion "Math Error" In State Budget | Zero Hedge

How much do we pay these morons who can't do simple math?
Trump is going to cut GOV expenditures way back. This will result in less money going from the bond market into the economy. The debt is rising faster than exponentially and I don't really see how this will work out.
The EU "leaders" are absolutely frantic worrying that he won't let loose enough dollars to service European dollar-denominated debt. But, since Trump said that the dollar is too strong, he will probably have to inflate to weaken it.
This is the start of a wild ride.

People who own property gain value whenever the value of the property rises. Mexico plans to tax that gain; https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...e-wall-mexico/
In Michigan, a guy was fined $ 128 for warming up his car. In Britain, a woman was fined 80 pounds for dumping her coffee down a drain, https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...ee-down-sewer/
The squeeze is on. GOV is out hunting.

[Danny B]

War with the CIA, Waiting on the FED

Trump is going to try to rein in the CIA. The whole world is going to shake. Trump’s Declaration of War - PaulCraigRoberts.org In the meantime, the markets have rolled over. Here is a chart with lots of good graphs. http://www.yardeni.com/Pub/buybackdiv.pdf

We will soon learn if the FED is going to fight Trump and America. The next FED meeting is quite soon,
2017 FOMC Meetings
February 1 July 26
March 15 September 20
May 3 November 1
June 14 December 13
One Big, Fat, Ugly Bubble | Casey Research What reforms?
Check
NEVER happen.

[Danny B]

https://www.theautomaticearth.com/wp...-Dividends.jpg

It is just too costly to find and extract oil in the lower 48. GOV made money available for RE loans and the price of RE blew sky high. GOV made money available for student loans and the price of an education blew sky high. GOV went off the gold standard to inflate the money supply and the price of oil went sky high (concurrent with the drawdown of domestic supplies) https://www.theautomaticearth.com/wp...keOilPrice.jpg

https://www.theautomaticearth.com/2017/01/what-is-this-crisis-of-modernity/

It is well worth reading the complete article. Trump talks carbon energy. Somebody needs to whisper in his ear about overunity. Maybe Alex Jones could do it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PsAKNC8gmGA

[Danny B]

Oil, trade and tarrifs

We spend almost as much energy to produce a barrel of oil as we get from that same barrel,,, EROI. The clowns in Davos are bewildered that their plans for globalization are just not going "according to plan". I have NO FAITH in the global brain trust if they can't figure out things that are painfully obvious to me. Ultra-cheap shipping brought us global-wage-arbitrage. The more stuff was shipped, the lower went wages,,, for the OECD. ALL of this globalization is dependent on cheap shipping and cheap oil.

"This pattern is illustrated in Figure 2. It shows the distance elasticity of trade as a function of the oil price. When the oil price is around $100 per barrel, a 10% increase in distance reduces trade by 15% (the shipping-distance elasticity is -1.5). The recent drop to $35 suggests a return to a distance elasticity of -1.35, a boon for globalisation."
"High oil prices in the future may indeed put the breaks on globalisation, as the distance elasticity of trade is higher in years of high oil prices."
The trade consequences of the oil price | VOX, CEPR?s Policy Portal

Trump proposes higher tariffs. This happened in Great Depression One in the guise of the Smoot Hawley Act. What can we expect to happen to world trade in the event of protective tariffs?
"In explaining the trade bust of the 1930s, the role of trade costs is dominant. Based on output growth alone, we would have expected world trade volumes to increase by nearly 90%. The fact that they declined by 13% highlights the critical role of the general tariff hike during the Great Depression and the collapse of the Gold Standard."

"Overall, they find that there is little systematic evidence to suggest that the maritime transport revolution was a primary driver of the late nineteenth century global trade boom. Rather, the most powerful force driving the boom was the secular rise in incomes across countries." That was then, this is now.
"Instead of transportation costs, the biggest reversal of international trade in recent history is linked to large increases in protectionist measures. The Great Depression marked the most dramatic increase in trade costs over the last 130 years. Trade costs jumped on average by 18 percentage points in the space of the three years between 1929 and 1932. This corresponds exactly to the well-documented rise of protectionist trade policy during that period."
Globalisation and trade costs: 1870 to the present | VOX, CEPR?s Policy Portal

[Danny B]

Pulling the rug out from under the economy,,, again?

Here is a comparison between conditions in 1930 and conditions today. It doesn't really give enough weight to the question of automation.
Weekend Edition: Comparing the 1930s and Today, Part I | Casey Researchinaugurated in March 1929.
August of 1929
October 1929
Only a few months later, the bubble burst on Black Tuesday in October 1929, barely seven months after Hoover took office." Deje vu?
Trump Could Go Down as the Worst President… But It Will NOT Be His Fault | Casey Research

[Danny B]

Marxists, Chinese policy, PISA scores, healthcare & death

You can count on the bankers to blow bubbles and eventually blow the economy. What about the Marxists.
"The Bolivarian socialists don't exactly have a strong first team when it comes to economic understanding. They actually had an economy minister for a time who refused to believe, point blank, that inflation was anything to do with money. It was just businessmen being greedy.
Forbes WelcomeProbably a trade war.
"Trump now proposes sanctions on China, having said the he would impose a tariff of forty-five percent on goods from there." "A trade war won might prove less desirable than a trade war not started. " Nobody wins.Sidestepping the Military Leviathan - The Unz ReviewThe minimum wage in China is $ 118 a month.
China Labor Stats: NationMaster.com

I keep reading the experts who make economic projections based on a high level of discretionary spending.
Here’s how the Trump presidency will play out | The Vineyard of the Saker

https://www.sovereignman.com/expat/summing-up-8-years-of-barack-obama-20697/

[Danny B]

Public Employee Unions Guarantee National Bankruptcy

Bill Clinton forked us good by ending Glass-Steagal. Killary forked the students real good by excluding student loans from being discharged by bankruptcy. https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...empt-from-law/

"Original backers of the Federal Reserve System boasted that it would prevent the financial setbacks that typically preceded recessions. There have been 19 recessions since the Fed opened its doors in January 1914. Until the 1960s, bankers dominated the Fed; since then it has been economists. The track record of this form of interventionist central planning has remained the same. "

http://www.24hgold.com/english/news-gold-silver-central-planning-and-big-government-kaput.aspx?article=10235110946H11690&redirect=false&contributor=Bob+Hoye

1928,,, wasn't that just before 1929?

http://www.24hgold.com/english/news-gold-silver-the-almighty-dollar--revisited.aspx?article=10221637764H11690&redirect=false&contributor=Captain+Hook

http://www.24hgold.com/english/news-gold-silver-republicans-democrats-and-voodoo-economics--jeff-nielson.aspx?article=10246112658H11690&redirect=false&contributor=Sprott+Money&mk=1

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PzC4Dzj7kWI

The rest of the article runs down Trump. No matter that he has only been in office for a few days.