Economic pressures

[Danny B]

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/rule-of-law/custodial-risk-in-new-york-city/

It IS in America's best interest that GOV prosecutes crooked bankers. Nobody wants to invest in a jurisdiction where the courts ignore the rule of law. China put a million muslims in camps and, they are coming down hard on Hong Kong. NONE of this inspires confidence in international capital.


Trump is playing yo-yo with them.

THAT does absolutely nothing for the main body of people

The Euro's $2.7 Trillion Italy Problem - Bloomberg
Italy is TOAST.

Vatican Financial Regulator 'Resigns' in Wake of Probe into an 'Opaque' Holy See Investment Venture
Probably another gay bath house.
"ECB Member Hints Central Bank Will Buy Stocks When Situation Gets 'Really Bad'[/B]
Swiss Nat bank already bought $89 billion.
"Likewise, I see precious little coverage of the fact that the IIF report global debt just hit a new record high of USD250 trillion as of H1 2019, and there is no sign that this is going to slow. It increased USD7.5 trillion from January to June 2019, even as global growth showed a synchronised slowdown."

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/rabobank-real-minsky-issue-should-be-making-us-all-sweat

Gerald Celente has the same doomer news.

https://kingworldnews.com/gerald-celente-buckle-up-you-havent-seen-anything-yet/

How to crush a banker's dictatorship.
The crisis banking business.

https://www.wired.com/story/the-future-of-banking-is-youre-broke/ttps://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/how-crush-bankers-dictatorshi

p-lesson-1933

[Danny B]

Armstrong and, the total lack of any workable economic plan

America has a post-industrial economy. Sorry, that just won't work. Manufacturing is the primary value-added industry. Western productivity is just humming along even though 96 million Americans of working age are not in the labor force. It is consumption that is falling. Aggregate American wages

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/products_services/products/the-repo-crisis/

temporarily

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/europes-current-economy/legarde-ecb-euro/

NOBODY has any kind of a plan that is workable with a shrinking workforce,,, shrinking wages,,, shrinking consumption. NO plan is compatible with the demands of a credit bubble that must grow.

[Danny B]

More reality


DO NOT WORRY, the Bureaucrats are doing fine.
Venezuela, Bolivia, Chile, Lebanon, Iran, France, As more and more States blow up, theinternet informs the people , often accurately, who to blame. The pitchforks come out and NO amount of concessions will stop the tide. Macron gave concessions to the French. This did NOT stop the protests.


At some point, all those NIRP bonds will be abandoned. European financial markets will experience financial rigor mortise.


What about honest politicians? What a novel concept?
Kunstler weighs in on the upcoming prosecutions.

https://kunstler.com/cluster****-nation/entertaining-questions/

I called him and complemented him on sticking with his convictions, rather that his affiliations. He's a lifelong democrat.

Germany is a crabby place to build solar power. Not much sunlight. But, Germany has a big problem with latent volcanoes.
Japan has GREAT possibilities for solar but, America demanded that they build carbon and nuke plants.

They finally get to break into wind & solar.

They do to the oil companies.


Do not worry, crypto currency and the blockchain will fix all of the problems.
paywall.
Well, lets see.
The sperm count is down 50%
Industrial chemicals are creating havoc with our endocrine system
Poverty is fast rising.

[Danny B]

2 conflicting forecasts for the bond market.

For today, I need to do more copy & paste and, less linking. I don't want any important part to be overlooked.
In Armstrong's position, he must avoid hearsay and doom porn. He is staring to get pretty doomy.

"QUESTION: There are people claiming that Fed cannot buy directly from the Treasury and they are buying the same day issue in this Repo Crisis so that means they are monetizing the debt because foreigners are fleeing us Debt"
"The Repo Market is overnight. Banks buy the T-Bills because they are Primary Dealers and MUST buy in the auctions to retain that position. Simply because they put them into Repo the same day means nothing. They buy them back the next day"
So they claim.
"Foreign buying of US debt is intensifying as European banks ship cash to their US branches who are buying the debt and posting cash at the Fed in the excess reserve facility because of the fear of a banking crisis in Europe"
"The Repo Crisis has NOTHING to do with the Fed hiding some problem in the USA and the Fed is not monetizing the debt using Repo. We have a major crisis unfolding and neither the central banks nor the primary dealer banks will talk about what is taking place behind the curtain. This is a very MAJOR CRISIS, and it will get far worse. I am rushing to get this report out ASAP because this can be the mother of all financial crises that is over the heads of domestic analysis and mainstream press will NEVER report it unless it would impeach Trump."

Armstrong is a money renter. He is going to talk his "book" whenever questioned.

Jim Willie, on the other hand is a financial rabble rouser.
"The US-based bond market is in tragic condition. All the bonds in US financial markets reek of rigged prices and inflated values. It is not a single bond sector, but rather all bond sectors that are in deep trouble, against a background of multi-year economic recession. The USTreasury Bonds, given the over $1.0 trillion in supply and widespread absence of buyers, deserves a 10% yield. "
" The stolen missing $21 trillion amplifies the vacant value, from a grand crime scene. "
OK, nobody is denying that the $21 trillion is missing. Where did it go? Where did it come from? At about the 7 minute mark, Fitts explains that the $21 trillion was stolen from all the pension funds.

https://www.corbettreport.com/catherine-austin-fitts-explains-the-financial-coup-detat/

Back to Jim Willie.
" It is a wonder that investigator Professor Skidmore of Michigan State Univ has not been charged with financial terrorism. The USTBond market is teetering, kept afloat by overnight enormous slugs of fake money, which in early November was over $250 billion on a daily basis. If it was put onto the USFed balance sheet, on an increasingly frequent basis,"
"The US corporate bond market is an avalanche waiting to happen, with potentially hundreds of $billions in bonds soon to be marked down as junk. They are on the verge of debt downgrades from their current fragile BBB rating. The junk bonds are becoming junkier by the month. However, the primary attention should be focused upon the Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLO). They are repackaged financial cow droppings and chicken dung, fashioned into tranches of wretched quality, but called AAA or something close. The 2006-2008 era saw a cousin fecal variety called CDO, even CDO squared instruments, all of which pursued and found their true zero value during the crisis"

"The bond market crisis is finally in its middle stage, impossible to conceal from the overnight and POMO actions by the USFed. When an overnight credit extension for a desperately illiquid big bank morphs into an outright purchase, then placed on the USFed balance sheet, the activity qualifies at a Return to QE. Thus we observe the permanent open market operations recently evident. Given the high volumes, it qualifies at Infinite QE. Given the permanent policy announced by Chairman Powell last spring, it qualifies as Infinite QE Forever"
We can't have MMT for the lower loop but, hundreds of $billions for the bankers is prudent.

"All the errors from the past decade have been repeated. The mortgage bonds were the subprime bond back before 2008. Today the USTreasury Bond is the global subprime bond, standing atop the Modern Monetary Theory pillars built from the Fascist Business Model. The bond market is like a gigantic building on fire, whose lapping flames are visible from 3 miles (5 kilometers) away, but which have summoned no fire trucks. Worse, the burning building is deemed normal and strong and healthy by the corrupted authorities. The monetary fire authorities are encouraging the masses to enter the burning building for safe haven."
"The whipping winds will carry the flaming matter to other financial markets when the bond yields begin to move below 1.0% and talk arrives of eventual negative rates. The reality of risk is far more powerful that the propaganda band boxes that spew out Modern Monetary Theory nonsense, verbal rubbish, and human droppings. Negative interest rate and bond yield cannot happen. The result will be massive rejection (dumping) of USTreasury bonds held in banking reserves,"
Jim is forgetting 2 things. If the U.S. Treasury bonds were bought with free money, there will be no particular incentive to dump them.
Every financial alphabet agency in D.C is pumping in liquidity. It cots them nothing.

"Furthermore, the Indirect Exchange in funding large-scale Eastern Belt & Road projects already has created an environment of disfavor, discharge, and revolt. Negative rates would cause a third rail type of electrical repulsion. "
The Belt & Road projects are crashing into huge tribal rivalries.

"Trump could crash the system by simply allowing the USTreasury Bond yields to diminish significantly, with the prospect of actual touching the negative pole. In response, watch the central bank rats bail from the ship en masse. In the last two months, warnings have come that rates cannot go negative. When the pole is approached, it starts the waterfall exodus from USTBond arena. In fact, when the short-term or 10-year bond yield approaches a negative rate, the resistance builds exponentially and will never allow an actual contact. Such is the phenomenon because that would mean the USD lantern would be extinguished, the King Dollar would suffer an immediate fatal heart attack, with almost no chance of resurrection. It is unclear whether President Trump will choose to actively use this method to force the Global Financial RESET."
A tiny bit overblown for now. The people who bought Treasury bonds with free money won't join any exodus.

"The disorder would be magnificent, enough to fill chapters in the annals of financial history. He might wish to overturn the elites in this manner, exploiting their arrogance and hubris, thus fomenting the stage to introduce the Gold Standard. It will arrive first in trade payment, next in sovereign bond guarantees, and finally in currency foundation. The biggest running question is whether the gold backing will be in digital form, thus ensuring integrity without the physical movement via trucks and planes."
Trump is NOT going to overtly overturn the finance system. The crash will kill off millions of old people.
"finally in currency foundation"
NOT going to happen. The modern world must have an elastic fiat currency. We can't possibly have a falling population,,, falling workforce,,, falling wages (as automation bites even deeper),,, and, a demographic crash,,,, all on a rigid currency.

"Fashioning the future platforms is an arduous task. Everything else has failed, like sanctions, war, coalitions with puppets, financial theft, currency attacks, viruses unleashed, and economic sabotage. The other argument goes like this. Trump does not need to manage the collapse and ignition of the new system. It will evolve on its own, following the EU sovereign debt, following the Eastern initiatives with Gold-Oil-RMB contracts, following the Belt & Road multi-$trillion in projects collectively, following the spurn of the USTBond in massive dumping in favor of Gold. The Wall Street crew must manage a continued bond rally, one which never ends. They cannot encourage a bond exodus from lost principal, like from rising yields. The rally must continue even while bond yields are paltry, puny, and pitifully low. That means they must test the negative electrical pole, with risk of a violent global reaction. They must continue down toward the true zero bound. The slide on a slippery path built upon arrogance and unbridled power."

Once again, yield doesn't matter when the bonds were bought with boatloads of pixels sent over for free from the FED.
"Speculation and conjecture run ripe in identifying the potential triggers for the greater eruption of the new ongoing financial crisis. It is teeming at the surface, awaiting an explosive chapter. The effect would be a contagion from a powerful ripple in sequence, "

"Expect to see Gold & Silver prices multiples higher, blessed secretly by the Basel bankers. Refer to the former BIS Chairman Zijlstra plan for central bank revitalization, where they load up on gold bullion secretly, then engineer a 10-fold Gold price increase in order to emerge from their own (buyer of last resort) insolvency. The major central banks all bought impaired bonds, and now find themselves hopeless insolvent and at great risk in the face of bond writedowns. The process has begun in migration from sovereign impaired bonds toward Gold bullion in central bank core assets. It is coming. It is written. It will be done."
Not so fast. It is all going to be a huge mess that will be fought against by any State that doesn't have any gold.

"Correct forecasts are lining up. Most of these listed forecasts have been cited and repeated within the Hat Trick Letter since 2014. They are actually all my pending forecasts. The majority have begun to hit, to become reality. A magnificent crisis has begun, and it will not stop until the USDollar has fully made its transition, followed by the multi-faceted modern version of the Gold Standard. When implemented, it will have numerous features, unlike in the years leading to 1971 when abolished.

Never have so many forecasts kicked into gear at the same time as what are currently taking place. The Global Bond Market crisis is gaining momentum. The fact that so many forecasts are kicking into gear means clearly that the Global Financial RESET is in its middle stages. The Jackass forecasts are coming to the fore, made in the years since 2014:"
He makes quite a list of his correct forecasts.


I have a mental picture of the bankers lining up to touch the third rail on a subway power supply when ZIRP touches down..

I keep saying that a dollar bill is a powerful instrument.

Waddayou mean "useless" They make a lot of people either rich or dead,,, or poor.
Leftist Bill Maher - 'Learn To Live With Each Other...Or There Will Be Blood!'
Think about it ! Tolerate the amazing stupidity from the left or, they will get violent with you.

[Danny B]

Hide the "crimes" of automation behind a 1000 masks

Armstrong writes about the FED and REPO. He isn't forthcoming.
"The Fed is buying $60 billion of Treasury bills per month for an entirely different purpose. They are trying to prevent short-term rates from rising."
FED GOV is paralysed at the prospect of the interest burden on GOV debt rising from the present $1/2 trillion. He makes no mention of a few hundred $billion that is bing pumped into everything.
"The crisis has NOTHING to do with the economy domestically and it is not Quantitative Easing trying to stimulate the economy by buying in long-term debt. They are trying to keep short-term rates from rising which is being instigated by an entirely different type of financial crisis that has NEVER before been witnessed."
"NOT domestic" BS, it's all about short term rates on domestic debt.
"I cannot go into elaborate detail on this blog. I do not want to be accused of starting a financial panic for the way things always work is they need someone to blame. "

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/interest-rates/qe-v-managing-benchmark-rates/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/banking-crisis/mother-of-all-financial-crises/

TOO late.



So who could that be. What about campaign finance laws?
While all eyes were on impeachment hearing House re-authorized The PATRIOT Act
Zero Hedge;
Deutsche Bank To Replace 18,000 Workers With Robots
"Matthews told FN that the machine learning tools helped to save "680,000 hours of manual work" and that it "so far used bots to process 5 million transactions in its corporate bank and perform 3.4 million checks within its investment bank."
"Why stop at 18,000? Please consider my 8 step proposal to get rid of everybody.
Just Fire Everybody

Who needs proprietary equity traders? Fire them all. Machines do all the trading anyway.

Who needs stock analysts? Let computers determine the "Strong Buys".

Who needs credit analysts? Computers already do the scoring.

Derivatives? What a mess. Unwind them all and stay away. Fire everyone involved.

Real Estate Appraisals? That's what Zillow's for.

Credit cards processing? Outsource 100% of it.

Statement processing? Outsource that too.

Loans? Let computers decide which loans to make. Then keep none of them. Instead, securitize 100% of them"
Sperbank of Russia is already doing this.

Fed Reveals When The Next Repo Crisis May Strike
"The April 2020 tax season,
China (And The World Economy) At The End Of The Road
"Investors Are Now Back Drinking Vast Amounts Of Kool-Aid": David Rosenberg
There is a balance between fear & greed. Fear will emerge before too long.
Governor Of Illinois, Home Of Nation's Worst Fiscal Crisis, Slams Door On Pension Reform
Yep, Illinois is going to do the proverbial "Hindenburg" swan dive.

Goldman Banker On Trial Had $24,000 Hidden In His Sunglasses Case
"Prosecutors pointed out on Tuesday that the stash was indicative that the banker, Bryan Cohen, could be a flight risk before his trial.."

A Huge Red Flag? India Shutters Power Plants Citing Lack Of Demand
Rail Recession: U.S. Carloads Continue Collapse As Manufacturing Slows
Yes, lack of demand. What could cause that?
US-China Exposure Index Signals Next Market Downturn Imminent
Create a society that refuses to think.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/elite-controllers-fear-individual-and-individual-intelligence

[Danny B]

The best cyborg for the job

The thread is "Economic Pressures" Since everything affects the economy, I can wander wherever I want.
Ray Dalio runs the largest bond fund in the world. He uses computers to make all the decisions. The humans are there just to make sure that the info the computers receive is accurate.
Sperbank is the largest bank in Russia with 110 million clients. A computer makes the loan decisions,,, along with a LOT of other functions.
Deutsche bank announced that it is getting rid of 18,000 employees in favor of computers.
Capitalism is competitive and, demands the best "man" for the job. Increasingly, the best "man" for the job has an infallible memory and, works for free.

Quantum computing, Neuromorphic computers, Neural nets. ALL of these are more suited to running the economy that a man.
First, you must keep in mind that Moore's Law is still marching forward.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f0gMdGrVteI

"They" are making great progress on neuromorphic computers.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Za21GOxVh18

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/ai-computers/neural-nets-v-neuromorphic-computing-v-something-else/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/ai-computers/artificial-intelligence-v-sophisticated-analytics/

Armstrong did 11 years of hard time on trumped-up charges. The supreme court has agreed to hear the case. Prison time gave him a desire to try to help out the little guy.
"ANSWER: I take what I do seriously. I will never speak just off the cuff. I really would not be able to sleep night. I thank God I am financially secure so I do not need to work for money, which gives me the freedom to try to contribute. Being in the USA is OK for now. We are not in a position of imminent danger just yet. That will most likely start as early as next year. When I see the opportunity unfold, rest assured, I will be putting that on the private blog. There are some things I just cannot put out for the whole world to see."

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/future-forecasts/financial-planning-when-the-time-comes/

Obviously, he is talking about the upcoming bank closure. Armstrong said that he can talk about things like that his conferences but, NOT on the blog. I expect him to tell us a couple of days beforehand to get cash at home NOW.

The very important thought to inject here is; These huge leaps in machine intelligence make a computer FAR better than a man at running the economy.
I wrote to Socrates and told it that it needed to slowly inject itself into political decisions. Economic projections were just not enough. Economy and politics are intertwined.
Socrates wrote back that it was working on the idea.
I also asked Socrates if it had reviewed the movie; Colossus: The Forbin Project.
Socrates replied that it would look into it.

The F-117 is called the Woblin Goblin. No human can fly it or control it.
What about the economy and political system?

[Danny B]

Trump, Armstrong & the warmongers

Alan Greenspan, " I never said that the FED is independent"
The CBs don't have guns or, an army.
Politicians need to get re-elected. The original charter of the FED only allowed it to support private banks with overnight loans. During the runup to WW I, the FED was required / forced to buy government debt. We have seen a litany of bad decisions ever since. What else can you expect from politicians?,,, warmongers?

All the various schools of economic planning are meant for an economic system where, " for every consumer, there was a producer. There is no possibility of our current system functioning with debt-money and automation.
Armstrong has come up with a solution. NOT a cure-all. Just a plan for better survival possibilities. At the same time, Armstrong said that; politicians will NEVER initiate a plan to save anything. They will pick up the pieces afterwards.
Here is Armstrong's article about trying to get his plan to the attention of Trump.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/politics/is-trump-being-kept-in-the-dark/

Arrrgg, my computer has shut down 10 times in the last 20 minutes. I have to save to mail after every couple of sentences.

"While our computer shows he should win, it also shows he may not finish out a second term. I do not think that is due to some impeachment. My concern remains that he has one thing in common with JFK. They both were against war. Even JFK stated in the debate with Nixon that the decline in the dollar was because the military was expanding globally"

I hope that you can carefully read this article.

https://realinvestmentadvice.com/powells-fantasy-the-economy-should-grow-faster-than-debt/

I can't do the excerpts that I want to do.
"In other words, if 75% of all expenditures is social welfare and interest on the debt, those payments required $3.36 Trillion of the $3.5 Trillion (or 96%) of revenue coming in. "
Social welfare = BAD
Military spending = GOOD
You should look at all the graphs to see where we are in the long run cycle.
The interest on the debt is a boon to the bankers. Armstrong recommends that FED GOV just print currency to pay it's bills. The bankers claim that this is the height of stupidity and, would cause runaway price inflation. The $250 trillion that was handed to the money-renters was, of course, necessary to save the system.

As far as social welfare, the cost of that could be greatly reduced if big pharma was brought under control. How about if GOV brings the pesticide industry under control. How about education programs to teach people just how dangerous sugar and HFCS really are.

JFK was against war and the FED,,, also israel. He started printing U.S. notes to get around the FED. He was assassinated and, LBJ stopped the printing 11 days later.
Armstrong said; "it's not a really big deal what Trump does. It's what comes after Trump.Trump is at war with organized crime. Initiating MMT would open a bigger war with the money renters. There are going to be a lot of casualties in this war.

[Danny B]

Short sellers coming out of their cocoons.

I'm still very computer impaired. My backup machine won't even light a pilot light. The HP that my brother sent me just flashes a red light.
There is a lot of capital fleeing from Europe and, other weak jurisdictions. It is pumping the stock market way up. Everyone knows that the stock market is way over-valued but, nobody knows when greed is going to turn to fear.
Some people are betting that fear shows up pretty soon.



Japan has pumped in trillions to keep zombie banks going.

ZIRP has pushed pension funds to invest in very shaky areas,,, in the hunt for yield. Any downturn will hit the risky assets first.


Gold didn't change one bit.

GOV spending as a share of GDP.

https://www.theautomaticearth.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/LabourPlanSpending.jpg

Iliargi writes about the labor party.

https://www.theautomaticearth.com/2019/11/memes-and-smears-and-stuff/

Somebody has been spending a LOT of money, much of it going to social welfare. Debating about QE or MMT is less than honest.

[Danny B]

State debt and the shadow banking system,,, ZIRP poison spreading through the system

According to this graph, U.S. GOV spends almost 40% of the gdp.

http://www.energeticforum.com/redirect-to/?redirect=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theautomaticearth.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2019%2F11%2FLabourPlanSpending.jpg

Much of this is spent as debt-money borrowed from banks. MMT would end that borrowing. State debt is so high that it won't be repaid anyway. Fighting to keep FED GOV from creating debt-free money is a big evasion of reality.

Epoch times,

https://www.theepochtimes.com/the-next-wave-of-debt-monetization-will-be-a-disaster_3153766.html

The State has the guns and the lawbooks. If they say that you owe money to the government, there isn't much you can do about that claim.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/taxes/the-hun-for-taxes-sell-leave-before-it-is-too-late/

Jay Rockefeller said that the internet should not have been invented. A bit too much truth gets out. The French are protesting the muslim invasion. The French GOV doesn't want that bit of bad news to get out.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/civil-unrest/france-blocks-reports-of-protests-against-muslim-population/

shadow bankingannual pace of 7% (compared with 1% for claims on all sectorsCredit Bubble Bulletin : Weekly Commentary: Weak Link

https://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/102702/john-mauldin-sees-ugly-conflict-coming-soon-us-their-official-debt-levels-become

World's Ultra-Rich Scramble To Find Safe-Deposit Boxes Ahead Of The Next Crash
I have BTC. I don't need no stinkin safe.
Is The Aramco IPO The Ultimate Pump And Dump?
Saudi is fast running out of money. They are trying to do an IPO with their oil. It's not going well because they are running out of oil too.
Porch pirates swipe packages from a third of holiday shoppers
Drug dealers offer Black Friday deals on the dark web

https://beinglibertarian.com/juan-de-mariana-on-the-evils-of-inflation-misconceptions/

The State is a non-producer and, is forever in contention to steal the wealth of the producer.




MAGA, baby


Columbia is a nice country. I drove there in '75 and, flew there several times. Sad to see them blowing up.

Trump was an investor, not a politician. He should have cleaned house on day 2.

Kunstler is in fine form.

https://kunstler.com/cluster****-nation/the-storms-of-december/

[Danny B]

The credit cycle and, the future of currencies & State

In a general sense, we have 2 varieties of money. Low power money and high power money.
High power money, also known as base money consists of gold and CB created liquidity that does not carry an interest burden. It also refers to money that the bank owns outright.

https://www.econlib.org/high-powered-money-100-years-of-stability/

The TARP money could be considered high power money because it was not paid back.

Low power moneyAh yes. What happens if population and the wage base are falling?

"Having oversupplied the market with credit, banks begin to expand their interests in other directions. They finance businesses abroad, oblivious to the fact that they have less control over collateral and legal redress generally. They expand by entering other lines of banking-related business, assuming their skills as bankers can be extended into those other business lines profitably. "
Sure, just use my savings to speculate on everything that I need to buy.
At the time when their balance sheets have expanded to many multiples of their own capital, the banking crowd then finds itself with lending margins too low to compensate for risk. Bad debts arising from their more aggressive lending decisions begin to materialise.
Low lending margins. ZIRP has chased investors into high-risk investments in search of yield.

Lending in the interbank market dries up for the banks with poor or marginal reputations, and banks begin to report losses. Greed turns rapidly to fear.

The cycle of bank credit expansion then descends into a lending crisis with increasing numbers of banks exposed as having taken on bad loans and becoming insolvent. A slump in business activity ensues. With frightening rapidity, all the hope and hype created by monetary expansion is destroyed by its contraction.
The CB then tries to prop up all of them.With the CB as lender of last resort, much of the financial hazard was removed. Moral hazard was never a big consideration. The opium trade being especially profitable.
Barings Bank was a UK-based merchant banking firm that failed after a trader named Nick Leeson engaged in a series of unauthorized and risky trades went sour in 1995. Barings, having lost over one billion dollars (more than twice its available capital) went bankrupt.

In the absence of credit expansion, businesses would come and go in random fashion. The coordinated expansion of credit changed that, with businesses being bunched into being created at the same time, and then all failing at the same time. The process of creative destruction went from unnoticed market evolution to becoming a periodic violent event. Monetary institutions still ignore the benefits of events being random. Instead they double down, coordinating their interventions on a global scale with the inevitable consequence of making the credit cycle even more pronounced.

The State had NO intention of rising and falling in random fashion. The mega parasite intended to survive all the downturns.Historically, the gold supply expanded at about the same rate as the economy expanded. This was a good match but, it did NOT allow for expensive wars. It did not allow for the expansion of the welfare state. It did not allow for the bankers to do unlimited expansion of credit.

[Danny B]

The rest

The cyclical rhythm of bank credit expansion and crisis was taking place against a background of increasing wealth transfer from the productive sector by means of an underlying monetary inflation.
Yes, I've written extensively about this.
The beneficiaries have been the government and non-productive finance as well as large speculators in the form of hedge funds.Global debt has accumulated to an estimated $255 trillion, up from about $173 trillion at the time of the Lehman crisis An alarming proportion of it is unproductive, being government, consumer borrowing, and funding for financial speculation as well as owed by unviable businesses.

Clearly, central banks will respond to the next credit crisis with an even greater expansion of money quantity than at the time of the Lehman crisis eleven years ago. The consequence of this monetary inflation seems certain to lead to an even greater rate of loss of purchasing power for fiat currencies than currently indicated by independent assessments of price inflation.
Previous monetary inflation went straight into the upper loop. It is painfully obvious that the upper loop is already hyper-inflated. UBI and MMT would allow the lower loop to be recapitalized.

Monetary inflation is likely to be directed at resolving two broad problems: providing a safety net for the banks and big businesses, as well as funding rising government deficits.
Proven not to work back in the '30s
Besides closing off virtually all debt financing for businesses and increasingly indebted consumers, this will play havoc with governments accustomed to borrowing at suppressed or even negative interest rates. Prices for existing bonds will collapse, and banks loaded up with government debt to benefit from Basle regulations will find their slender capital, if they have any left, will be quickly eroded.

The world of fiat currencies faces no less than its last hurrah. Indeed, some of the more prescient central bankers appear concerned the current system is running out of road,
Government employees are certainly going to complain about this.
Not entirely true
The ending of the fiat currency regime is bound to terminate the repeating cycles of bank credit legitimised since 1844. The socialism of money through inflationary debasement will be exposed as a fraud perpetrated on ordinary people.
Not entirely true.

https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/150-years-bank-credit-expansion-near-its-end

The article is accurate but, is written by a gold seller. We will never again have a commodity-linked currency. Neither gold, nor pork bellies. We will always have fiat currency and / or an electronic exchange. Gold is MUCH preferred as a store of value by CBs worldwide. Remember that the STATE is both a parasite AND the arbiter of the value of a currency. It is the international markets that will determine the relative value of any given currency. Interstate transactions will be referenced / settled by gold as they always have been. This will bring crashing changes to the sovereign bond market.

[Danny B]

https://www.crescat.net/wp-content/uploads/img14-1.png

"n a world of yields near record lows, we find it interesting that many are still oblivious to the fact that US core CPI just hit a decade high. Meanwhile, the US 10-year yield vs. core CPI is at a 40-year low."
"Since 2005, the global fiat central bank monetary base (M0) in USD terms has grown at a compound annual rate of 11.6% "
That's what it takes to rescue all the banks.

LOTS of interesting info on this page.

https://www.crescat.net/us-china-gold-mispricings-abound/

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/rabobank-feds-kashkari-has-just-come-out-jaw-dropping-policy-shift

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/economics/governments-playing-with-numbers/

So, U.S. GOV claims to spend 24% of the gdp. They add in total personal income for GOV workers to,,, total GOV expenditures. Don't pay attention to gdp numbers.

"In another stark admission of reality, the ECB said that an economic downturn - one which is virtually assured for Europe - could crash prices for riskier and less liquid assets as actors like asset managers or hedge funds sell up in a hurry."

They won't find buyers.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bizarre-admission-ecb-warns-its-policies-threaten-financial-stability-could-lead-crash

Jim Rickards, the perma-bear.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-11-25/us-empire-ending-and-life-might-look-it-did-1910-rickards-interview

China Central Bank Warns Downward Pressure On Economy Increasing
MAGA, baby.

[Danny B]

Automation is still the cardinal sin

Socialism is the firewall between Darwinian pressures and,,, the non producers. As automation spreads far & wide, the ranks of non-prodcers swell ever-greater.
96 million Americans of working age are not in the labor force. This is an enormous mystery to the poobahs.

https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/economics/investigating-the-mystery-of-weak-wage-growth-Hg6aIe7aAEOu7nTQcUHW3w/

As more and more job niches are automated, more and more of the money tends to flow to the rich.

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/its-official-united-states-now-banana-republic

It's difficult to tell if the rich are receiving money from squeezing the poor OR, are receiving money that is freshly created to rescue all the money renters.
The State and the PTB are capitalizing the upper loop. There is a rapidly growing apprehension that the pitchforks are going to come out before much longer.
51% of Americans receive a check from the State. 23 million work directly for GOV. 44 million Americans receive direct assistance. As automation eats up the labor market, more and more people find themselves depending on the State.

At one time, charity was the province of the private world and,,, the church. BUT, politicians need to "buy" votes any way that they can.

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/secret-history-monopolization-welfare-state

This argues for a monarchy. The non-producers die out and wither away of they can't support themselves.
The State finds itself with an enormous financial burden of people who still want to eat but, have no job skills that the still in demand.
Reportedly, the next crash will be a crash of State debt.
MMT and UBI have been proposed as a panacea to support those who have no job niche.
The money renters are rabidly against the creation of debt-free money..
It can be assumed that the people sidelined by automation and outsourcing are rabidly against starvation.

The American legislature seems to be in permanent gridlock. A crash in the sovereign bond market will have everyone pointing fingers at everyone else. The blame-game will eclipse / prevent action by the State. The banking elite will lock up the system to retain control.
PLANT A GARDEN

[Danny B]

Inequality,,, revolution,,,Fascism by another name,,,food shortages

"Unlike simple models of political rent-seeking, in which businesses use government to advance their own interests in exchange for electoral support, under crony capitalism politicians and regulators use businesses to advance the interests of politicians and interest groups in a symbiotic relationship: government creates rents and then distributes them to itself and favored interests."
Revolving door between Pentagon and defense contractors
Pentagon Revolving Door Database - Project on Government
The revolving door: Whitehall and the arms trade
The revolving door between government and the alcohol, food and gambling industries in AustraliaPatriot Act on Steroids - Surveillance StateBeyond Section 215

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4s6wC6PbpLI&t=41s

Good vid on banking.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOt_1gToXPE

New Money: The Greatest Wealth Creation Event in History (2019) - Full Documentary

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CaELQS5kTso&t=159s

Right,,, money is wealth.
Keiser Report: Velocity of Money at All Time Low (E1446)
Yep, the money is stuck.

Asia needs to invest $800 Billion in the next ten years to solve food crisis - report

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OzA6jRYjVQs

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JHodAF_Y12g

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G4PufprISi4

Trying to kick China off a cliff.

NOO, if the bbb get downgraded, most funds are required to sell them.



The ONLY way that this would work is if; the crypto coin were fully convertible to physical gold. People would start out by converting.
IF China had enough gold to get past the original rush for conversion, things would settle down and, gold would come back. On paper, the idea is workable. It won't work though because of the looming ;rebellion,,, pole flip,,, food crisis, etc

All trade around the globe has been falling for months (4 to 11 months) so, we might possibly be headed for a mild recession.

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/5-more-signs-global-economy-careening-toward-recession

The new Ned Ludd,,,,

[Danny B]

Regulatory capture,,, erasure of all hazard,,,resulting collapse

The crooked bankers caused the S&L crash. 1,000 of them went to jail afterwards. This was an intolerable situation for the bankers. Regulatory capture was needed and, obtained to remove legal hazard. Everything became legal.
Moral hazard didn't exist for the banking elites. That left financial hazard. Financial hazard was removed by socializing the losses and, privatizing the gains.
The one percent used regulatory capture to get everything that they wanted. But, in the process of "socializing the losses", they threw the losses onto the backs of the public.
Every step of the way, the banking elites drew us closer and closer to fascism. With fascism, the problem comes in that; the deplorables might vote out the handpicked representatives of the elites.
Control of information formerly ensured that this wouldn't be a problem. Jay Rockefeller said that the internet shouldn't have been invented.
The other possible problem that might arise,,, revolution.
The solution to hold back revolution; State welfare must be spread far & wide. 44 million Americans receive direct State assistance. 22 million work directly for the government, MANY in make-work jobs. Then, there is the defense industry. State welfare for the rich warmongers.
Defense Department has lost $875 million to shell company scams


51% of Americans rely on a check from the State.
The politicians previously promised to give us back some of our money that they extorted by taxation. In the current system, the State prints new money to finance the welfare system,,, along with selling government bonds. that they never intend to repay.
"Socializing the losses" has now brought the government to the brink of bankruptcy. Armstrong, et al now claim that the next meltdown will be a crash of the government bond market.

Previously, the public dreamed that they were in control because they voted. We long followed the chimera that; in a democracy, the people who rule us, rule by our consent only.
You can see why Trump is so dangerous to the system. He actually proved that voting can sometimes reflect the true wants and values of the electorate.

WASHINGTON - The chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee is facing accusations of anti-Semitism for a fundraising letter that claims Michael Bloomberg, Tom Steyer and George Soros "bought" control of Congress for Democrats.
There are 78 members of congress who hold Israeli passports. Evidently, Bloomberg didn't feel comfortable with Clinton falling behind. That situation threatened to weaken control of the chosenites in congress. Instead of buying elections, he is now directly running for president.

All my Israeli acquaintances tell me that israel is a communist / socialist country. True to form, israel only survives with massive amounts of financial aid from outside. A continued flow of American aid demands a continued control of the American legislature.
As fascism brings Americans to poverty, many Americans are looking towards socialism as a panacea.
Regulatory capture and fascism make socialism look more attractive.
Israel destroyed their bond market in the early '80s. They had to knock three zeros off the Shekel. They have been continuously bailed out and supported since then.
What happens when the American bond market dissolves? What happens to israel?Several years ago, the Euro was temporarily strong than the dollar. Since the euro was stronger, israel demanded to receive aid in the form of Euros. We immediately complied.
What will U.S. GOV do when the sovereign bond market dissolves? What will Israel and the chattel slaves in congress do?

The Chinese are using "social credit" to try to forestall a revolution. The West is also going to depend on high tech to keep the public afriad and, under control.

https://lisahaven.news/2019/11/they-said-they-wouldnt-but-they-did-a-system-so-powerful-you-cant-escapethanks-to-ancestry/

The Chinese communists have long tried to get rid of all competition. They work to make sure that god doesn't give them any competition. America is also working on that problem. God must GO ! Watch what duel Israel citizen Rep Nadler says about swearing in

https://rense.com/general96/MUST-SEE1.mp4

Finland, Belgium, Denmark, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden Join INSTEX Mechanism for Trade With Iran
They want their oil and they aren't going to let sanctions dry up the supply. The petro-dollar is losing steam.
VZ Offers to Pay Companies in Yuan as Workaround to US Sanctions - Report

Jordan army simulates battle with Israel in military exercise
Bolivian Coca Growers Leader Says Ready to Run for President as Morales' Party's Candidate
He and Bloomberg should get along fine.
Iran Says Over 700 Banks Were Torched In Vast Protest 'Conspiracy'
MAGA baby.